March 20th, 2018
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It is a slow week with less than a dozen releases in the main section, and that includes two late reviews. There’s no more than that for the secondary Blu-ray releases. That said, a high percentage of these are worth picking up with many Pick of the Week contenders. For example, the biggest release of the week, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, is one of the best, as is one of the smallest releases, Miss Kiet’s Children. However, in the end, I went with Coco, which technically came out a couple of weeks ago, but the screener arrived late and it really deserves the title of Pick of the Week.
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January 23rd, 2018
Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year.
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January 9th, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle held on strongly during the first weekend of 2018 earning $37.23 million. Insidious: The Last Key opened with $29.58 million, earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $165 million, which is 15% lower than last weekend; however, last weekend was a holiday weekend, so this is a better than expected hold. More importantly, this is 21% better than the same weekend last year. 2018 has a small lead over 2017 at 7.1% to $306 million to $285 million. It has been a while since we’ve seen a lead in the year-over-year comparison, but obviously it is far too early for this lead to be meaningful.
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January 4th, 2018
It is the first weekend of 2018 and Insidious: The Last Key is the only true wide release, although Molly’s Game is expanding semi-wide. The Last Key isn’t expected to compete with Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle or Star Wars: The Last Jedi for first place, but if it can open with more than $15 million, it should at least help the year get off to a good start. This weekend last year, Underworld: Blood Wars opened in fourth place, while Hidden Figures expanded into first place. Both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and Star Wars: The Last Jedi should top Hidden Figures and while 2018 won’t have the same depth, it should still earn a victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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January 2nd, 2018
It was a really close weekend with Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle both earning around $67 million during the four-day weekend. In fact, Jumanji beat The Last Jedi on New Year’s Day. Overall, the box office grew 11% from last weekend to $194 million, which was 4.3% more than the same weekend last year. It’s going to take a bit before we have the final numbers for all studios to compare how 2017 did compared to 2016, but it is safe to say 2016 will come out on top.
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December 30th, 2017
The last year to have Christmas and New Years Days on a Monday was 2006. Using that year as a guide and adjusting for changes in the market, specifically how much more front-loaded films tend to be, I was expecting a slight improvement for Star Wars: The Last Jedi from Thursday to Friday. That didn’t happen. In reality, the film lost 2.2% of its daily box office to hit $19.06 million on Friday. Granted, the film already has $483.76 million domestically and will likely hit first place for the year by the end of business today, surpassing Beauty and the Beast. Even with a slightly reduced weekend estimate of $54 million / $70 million, it is on pace for $600 million domestically with relative ease, making it a shoo-in for the sixth-highest-grossing domestic film of all time.
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December 28th, 2017
As per usual, the weekend after Christmas has no new wide releases. This means there will be almost no changes in the top five from last weekend, meaning Star Wars: The Last Jedi will win with ease, while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a comfortable second place. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing were neck-and-neck with just over $90 million combined. The Last Jedi and Jumanji should top that, giving 2017 one last win in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 26th, 2017
We still don’t have final numbers for the weekend or Christmas day, and because of the holidays, we likely won’t get them until January 2nd. This means were are stuck with weekend estimates for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and other films and no information for Monday. Star Wars: The Last Jedi outperformed estimates with $71.57 million for a four-day total of $99.03 million. Its 11-day total is $395.63 million and it will take just 12 days to get to $400 million. That’s not the record, but it is the third best result and that's still very impressive.
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December 24th, 2017
It’s a very crowded weekend, to say the least, in theaters, with five new wide releases already playing, and another joining the fray tomorrow. The Last Jedi is unperturbed by the competition, and will come out an easy winner, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $68.486 million projected 3-day gross takes it to $365 million after 10 days in release. Among its new records this weekend, it became the 3rd-fastest film to earn $350 million at the domestic box office, and will have the 3rd-best Christmas weekend. All this is in spite of the fact that takings are expected to be down significantly today as everyone prepares for, or starts celebrating, the holiday.
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December 23rd, 2017
This weekend complicated, as Christmas Eve lands on a Sunday and Christmas Day technically makes it a four-day weekend. Although with so many schools closed for the holidays, you could almost call it a eleven-day weekend. This makes interpreting Friday’s box office numbers more difficult than usual. Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $24.68 million on Friday, putting its running tally to $321.28 million. It tied Jurassic World for second-fastest to $300 million at just 8 days. On the other hand, this is a little bit lower than our predictions. It still has a real shot at over $100 million during the four-day weekend, but it could have to wait until Tuesday to get to $400 million.
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December 22nd, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi bounced back 5% from Wednesday, earning $17.8 million on Thursday for a week-long total of $296.5 million. It is impossible to compare the film to The Force Awakens, as the seventh day in that film’s run was Christmas Eve and it fell 28% as a result. Rogue One grew a lot more, up 12% to $16.7 million. I was expecting the film to bounce back more than this. That said, it is already in seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and will be in fourth place by the end of the weekend. Add in Christmas and it will be at over $500 million by the end of the year.
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December 21st, 2017
This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit.
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December 1st, 2017
The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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October 27th, 2017
Musical comedy starring Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson, Brittany Snow, and Anna Camp opens December 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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