October 3rd, 2017
It is not a great week for home market releases. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is the biggest release of the week, but it is far from the best. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are all horror themed. Cult of Chucky is surprisingly good, especially for a franchise that’s lasted seven installments. Don't Torture A Duckling is a giallo film, and an important one in its director’s career. Up next is iZombie: Season Three, which is amazing, but it is always on the edge of being canceled. Finally, there's Vampyr: Criterion Collection Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Don't Torture A Duckling: Special Edition as the Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, Goon: Last of the Enforcers Blu-ray Combo Pack earned Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release.
More...
September 20th, 2017
I think it is a really good week on the home market. The biggest release of the week is Wonder Woman, which is also one of the best wide releases of the year. The extras are strong and the Blu-ray Combo Pack / 3D Combo Pack are Pick of the Week contenders. It isn’t the winner, as The Big Sick is one of the best movies I’ve seen all year and the DVD / Blu-ray Combo Pack is loaded with extras.
More...
July 13th, 2017
Spider-Man: Homecoming earned first place in one of the closest races I’ve seen. It pulled in $140.03 million on 24,287 screens in 71 markets for a worldwide opening of $257.06 million. Its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $19.37 million on 1,965 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $25.94 million. It also cracked $10 million in both the U.K. ($12.11 million in 616 theaters) and Mexico ($11.72 million on 3,506 screens), while it came close to that mark in Brazil with $9.09 million on 1,302 screens. The film did amazing business in Asia, including earning $6.84 million on 1,092 screens in Indonesia and $6.46 million on 1,900 screens in India. The film has yet to open in a number of major markets, including France, Germany, China, and Japan and should top $800 million worldwide with ease before it is done, which is enough to break even before it reaches the home market. The real challenge is surpassing Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the worldwide chart for the summer. It is too soon to tell if it will get there for sure, but this is a great start.
More...
July 6th, 2017
Despicable Me 3 dominated the international box office almost as much as it dominated the domestic box office earning $98.8 million on 8,525 screens in 52 markets for totals of $121.1 million international and $171.2 worldwide. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $14.50 million in 608 theaters, while Mexico wasn’t far behind with $12.34 million. However, arguably its most impressive opening came in Brazil where it earned $7.5 million, which is the best opening for an animated film in that market. The film has already made enough to pay for its $75 million production budget, so it is a monster hit. However, its decline from Minions means Universal is more likely to make a second and third Minions movie rather than a fourth Despicable Me. As someone who prefers the Despicable Me movies, this is disappointing. On the other hand, I recognize I’m not in the target demographic for these films, so I really shouldn’t have a say in these things.
More...
June 22nd, 2017
-3-News.jpg)
The Mummy remained on top of the international box office chart, but it fell more than 60% to $53.0 million in 68 markets for totals of $239.1 million internationally and $296.2 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in France, but with just $3.0 million on 615 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it was down 77% to $11.63 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $81.62 million. Its best market is arguably South Korea, where it added $3.73 million on 933 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $23.64 million. The only major market left for the film is Japan, where it opens at the end of the month. It is on pace for about $400 million worldwide, which is not enough to pay for its $195 million production budget. Even if it is a bigger than expected hit on the home market, it will have trouble covering its combined production and advertising budget, which is at least $300 million.
More...
June 21st, 2017
Transformers: The Last Knight got off to a weak start with $5.5 million during Tuesday night previews. This is the worst in the franchise, not counting the first film, which opened before previews like this were commonplace. As for more recent comparisons, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned an identical amount, but that opened on a Friday, so it is not a great comparison. Perhaps Dark of the Moon is a better comparison, as it was also a Wednesday release. It earned $13.5 million in 2011, $5.5 million on Tuesday and another $8 million after midnight. (Studios no longer split the preview box office up like that.) If The Last Knight has the same legs, then it would open with $40 million / $66 million over the three-day / five-day weekend. Unfortunately, its reviews are simply awful at just 16% positive. Furthermore, early reports suggest the audience reaction won’t be much better. It’s too soon to tell if this film is going to underperform already low expectations, but this is not a good sign.
More...
June 14th, 2017
-2-News.jpg)
The Mummy debuted in first place on the international chart with $140.76 million on 19,078 screens in 63 markets. The film’s biggest market was China, no surprise there. It earned $52.4 million on 7,364 screens, which is better than Wonder Woman’s opening there last weekend. The film did even better in South Korea, relatively speaking, with an opening weekend of $8.61 million on 1,254 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $17.80 million. This includes a record for opening day in that market of $6.6 million, while the total opening was the best for Universal. On the downside, the film struggled in the U.K. earning second place with $4.2 million in 563 theaters. That’s weaker than its performance here, relative to the size of the two markets. Furthermore, the film only has two major markets left to open in, France and Japan, while its reviews will likely really hurt its legs. It will earn enough worldwide to pay for its production budget, assuming the $125 million reports are accurate.
More...
June 13th, 2017
-11-News.jpg)
The weekend box office had a few surprises, some positive and some negative. On the positive side, Wonder Woman had the best hold for a major super hero movie since Spider-Man and is on pace for $340 million to $375 million. On the negative side were all three new releases. The Mummy finished on the low side of already low expectations, while It Comes At Night pleased critics, but not moviegoers. Meanwhile, Megan Leavey missed the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office fell 22% from last weekend to $144 million. This is 5.7% lower than this weekend last year. Fortunately, since this time last week, 2017 expanded its lead over 2016 by about $20 million at $4.90 billion to $4.73 billion. We are almost halfway through the year, so a $175 million / 3.7% lead is solid. It isn’t impossible for that lead to evaporate, but it is enough to be cautiously optimistic about the final tally.
More...
June 9th, 2017
The Mummy started its domestic box office run last night earning $2.66 million in previews. This is well below expectations and it was already expected to struggle. To put this into perspective, it only earned approximately a quarter of what Wonder Woman managed last week and less than half of what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned the weekend before that. Add in reviews that are just 20% positive and there’s a chance the film’s word-of-mouth will kill the film’s legs by this evening. At this point, a $30 million opening could be asking too much. $25 million isn’t even a sure thing anymore.
More...
June 8th, 2017
-5-News.jpg)
Last weekend was a great one at the box office with Wonder Woman earning over $100 million during its opening. This weekend isn’t expected to be nearly as potent. The biggest new release is The Mummy, which is supposed to be the start of the Dark Universe, but its reviews suggest this combined universe will be short-lived. It Comes At Night could become A24’s biggest hit, although that’s not a particularly high bar. Finally there’s Megan Leavey. It isn’t expected to open truly wide, but it only needs about $2 million to reach the top ten. This weekend last year was similar in terms of box office strength. The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the way with barely more than $40 million, while there were two other new releases to top $20 million. This year’s crop of new films is nowhere near as good as that; however, the holdovers should make up the difference leaving 2017 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
June 7th, 2017
-9-News.jpg)
Wonder Woman opened in first place on the international chart with $122.5 million in 55 markets for a global opening weekend of $225.8 million. Unsurprisingly, the film’s biggest market was China, where it opened in first place with $38.96 million. This is about $10 million less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 opened with recently, but then again, that was a sequel, so it is not an entirely fair comparison. Should Wonder Woman have better legs there, then it could still hit $100 million in that market. Other big markets for the movie include South Korea, where it earned $6.40 million on 1,034 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.41 million. This is better than Suicide Squad managed in that market, but behind Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Brazil and Mexico were close behind with $8.3 million and $8.22 million respectively. This is better than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2, but not as good as BvS or Suicide Squad. On the other hand, the film struggled somewhat in the U.K earning $8.00 million in 599 screens, which was still enough for first place. It only managed second place in Russia with $3.99 million on 1,194 screens. Overall, the studio should be happy with these results and I bet there’s a sequel already in early stages of development.
More...
June 6th, 2017
-7-News.jpg)
The overall box office bounced back after a weak Memorial Day thanks to two critically acclaimed movies. Wonder Woman led the way with $103.25 million, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie was way back with $23.85 million. Overall, the weekend box office pulled in $185 million, which is 31% more than last weekend. It is also 37% more than the same weekend last year. This helped 2017’s lead over 2016 grow by nearly a full percentage point to 3.5% at $4.69 billion to $4.52 billion.
More...
June 4th, 2017
The winners of our Tall Tales contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales’s opening weekend were...
More...
June 3rd, 2017
-6-News.jpg)
As expected, Wonder Woman led the way on Friday; however, its box office was a little lower than I would have liked with $38.85 million. (I was expecting $42 million on Friday.) This still gives the film a slim shot at $100 million, although it will likely fall a little short. Fortunately, there are some positive signs we should focus on, including the reviews, which ticked up a point to 94% positive on Rotten Tomatoes. Meanwhile, the film earned a solid A from CinemaScore, which should also help its legs. It could still hit $100 million, if it does exceptionally well during matinees on Saturday. We will know this time tomorrow when the weekend estimates are released.
More...
June 2nd, 2017
-5-News.jpg)
Wonder Woman had the third best previews for 2017 so far at $11 million. Only Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($17.0 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($16.4 million) have topped it, while it is double what Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned just last weekend. This represents the biggest previews for a movie directed by a woman, surpassing Fifty Shades of Grey and I'm very happy this film took away a record from Fifty Shades. So what does this tell us about the film’s box office chances? Sadly, not much. It is right were most people were expecting, so I don’t feel the need to adjust our prediction, but there are a lot of unknown factors that could affect the weekend number. Firstly, the film’s reviews are 93% positive and the word-of-mouth should be just as strong. However, the Fangirl Effect could frontload the film’s box office numbers, thus hurting its legs. There have not been enough female led superhero movies to come out to make a judgment at this time. At the moment, $100 million seems safe, but that could change this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates come in and that number could drop to $90 million or rise to $120 million. Hopefully it is the latter.
More...
June 2nd, 2017
-4-News.jpg)
It’s the first weekend of June and it looks like it could be a monster weekend. Wonder Woman could earn over $100 million during the weekend, while Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie is hoping to hit $100 million in total. Both have a great chance of getting there. Add in some solid holdovers and this weekend should earn close to $200 million. By comparison, this weekend last year was nowhere near as strong with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earning first place with just $35.32 million. Wonder Woman will earn more than that opening day. There’s a chance Wonder Woman will earn more over the weekend than the top five earned this weekend last year.
More...
June 1st, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales dominated the international box office earning five times more than the rest of the top five combined. The film pulled in $208.4 million in 54 markets and had $271.4 million worldwide by the end of its first weekend. Its biggest single market was China, where it earned $68.55 million over the weekend. This is bigger than its domestic opening. While this is impressive, it is only the third biggest opening in China for a Disney film, behind Avengers: Age of Ultron and Captain America: Civil War. On the other hand, the film had a big opening in Russia with $19.10 million, which is the biggest opening weekend in that market of all time. However, it wasn’t all good news, as the only market left to open in is Japan, so it will have to rely on long legs to continue its run.
More...
May 31st, 2017
Long Strange Trip topped the theater chart with an average of $21,739 in two theaters over the weekend. (The film also had a special engagement on Thursday in 50 theaters.) This is more impressive, because of how long the movie is, which limited the number of screenings per day. The only other film to reach the $10,000 club was Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales with an average of $14,729. However, Restless Creature: Wendy Whelan came very close with an average of $9,940 in two theaters, plus it was a Wednesday release.
More...
May 31st, 2017
Memorial Day long weekend wasn’t as potent as expected as both new releases struggled. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales led the way with $78.47 million over four days. This marks the third year in a row where no film released on Memorial Day long weekend earned at least $100 million over four days. I’ve heard some talk that this means it is losing its importance as a long weekend. However, I think the actual answer is much simpler, as it is also the third weekend in a row where no wide releases have earned overall positive reviews. I don’t think the box office power of Memorial Day has dropped since X-Men: Days of Future Past came out. I just think the quality of films has dropped since then. Speaking of lack of quality, Baywatch was DOA earning just $27.71 million over five days and unlike Dead Men Tell No Tales, it likely won’t do significantly better internationally. Despite both new releases struggling, the holiday helped the overall box office grow 14% from last weekend to $141 million. Unfortunately, this was 14% lower than the same weekend last year. 2017 still maintains its lead over 2016, but that lead as slipped to 2.6% or $110 million at $4.46 billion to $4.35 billion.
More...
May 28th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales is dominating proceedings at the box office this weekend, with Disney projecting an opening of $62.2 million for three days, and $76.6 million over the complete Memorial Day holiday weekend. As I’ve said a few times this year, any other studio would kill for numbers like those, but this marks the third straight decline in the franchise’s fortunes. Dead Man’s Chest had the best opening for any Pirates film, with $135.6 million in 2006; At World’s End did $114.7 million over Memorial Day weekend in 2007; and then On Stranger Tides delivered a $90.2-million debut, also over Memorial Day weekend in 2011. With this kind of start, Dead Men will struggle to deliver $200 million domestically, although its international performance will help make up the numbers.
More...
May 27th, 2017
As expected, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales earned first place at the Friday box office. Unfortunately, it missed the low end of expectations with $23.40 million, putting it on pace for a $62 million three-day weekend and a $73 million total opening. The film’s reviews are just 32% positive, putting it in a tie with On Stranger Tides for worst in the franchise. On the other hand, the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore compared to a B plus for the previous installment, so that should help its legs a little. That said, the film cost $230 million to make, so unless it is a monster hit at the international box office, there’s little hope the sequel teased in the end credits will happen.
More...
May 26th, 2017
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales will have no trouble earning first place at the weekend box office, not after earning $5.5 million in previews last night. This would have given it number one for the night, if the numbers weren’t rolled into its Friday debut. On Stranger Tides managed $4.7 million during its midnight shows, but it was truly a midnight show, rather than starting at 7 pm like Dead Men Tell No Tales did. This is 30% higher than Alien: Covenant managed last week, but well behind the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse managed this weekend last year. Dead Men Tell No Tales will need serious growth to match our previous prediction of $67 million / $82 million debut. On the positive side, it is a long weekend and that will undoubtedly help. On the negative side, its reviews are quite terrible.
More...
May 25th, 2017
It’s Memorial Day long weekend, which is historically one of the best long weekends at the box office all year. However, this year the two new releases are far from the best. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales has the worst reviews in the franchise and its domestic box office will likely be the same. Sadly, Baywatch’s reviews are even worse. That said, they should still finish one-two over the weekend, while Alien: Covenant and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 will be in a race for third place. It likely won’t be close. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass opened one-two during the weekend with results that are similar to what Dead Men Tell No Tales / Baywatch are expected to make. I don’t know if 2017 will win in the year-over-year comparison, but it should be close.
More...
May 25th, 2017
The winners of our Make an Arrangement contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Alien: Covenant’s opening weekend were...
More...
May 18th, 2017
There are two wide releases coming out next week: Baywatch and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. It’s an easy choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest, not only because Dead Men Tell No Tales is expected to open much faster, but also because Baywatch is opening on Thursday. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release).
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
Note: It is a long weekend, but we only use the three-day, Friday through Sunday box office for this contest.
More...
May 1st, 2017
April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
More...
October 3rd, 2016
Swashbuckling adventure opens May 26, 2017 ... Full Movie Details.
More...
