January 17th, 2017
The are not many major releases on this week’s home market release list. The Girl on the Train is the biggest, but it is not the best. It is not even close to being the best. The race for best was mostly a two-way race between Long Way North and Ouija: Origin of Evil, with Ixcanul and Train to Busan being close behind. In the end, I went with Long Way North on Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week, but all four are worth owning.
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January 9th, 2017
There’s a lull in the quality and quantity of releases on the home market, one that will continue until the holiday releases start coming out. That’s not to say there are no releases worth picking up. Under the Shadow is an amazing horror film and the DVD is a Contender for Pick of the Week. However, the winner of that honor is The Criterion Collection release for His Girl Friday oni Blu-ray.
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November 9th, 2016
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Doctor Strange added $118.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $240.4 million internationally and $325.5 million worldwide. It has already overtaken The Incredible Hulk in the MCU and is rapidly closing in on Captain America: The First Avenger. This weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $44.12 million, including some previews, as well as in Brazil with $7.9 million. The film also expanded wide in Russia earning $8.49 million over the weekend for a total of $15.63 million. On the downside, the film has already opened in all major markets, except for Japan, where it doesn’t open until January. With what it has pulled in so far, anything less than $600 million will be seen as troubling, while anything more than $750 million will be seen as a success.
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November 1st, 2016
Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year.
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October 27th, 2016
There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 25th, 2016
2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future.
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October 23rd, 2016
Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million.
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October 22nd, 2016
Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film.
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October 21st, 2016
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment.
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October 20th, 2016
It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in.
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October 1st, 2016
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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