November 22nd, 2016
It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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September 20th, 2016
It is not a great week on the home market, as the biggest release is Beauty and the Beast: 25th Anniversary. I’m still waiting for the screener, but I fear there will be less extras this time around. Modern Family: Season Seven was also a contender for Pick of the Week, but the light extras prevents it from earning that title. That leaves Labyrinth: 30th Anniversary Edition as the best of the week.
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September 6th, 2016
It is a big week with a ton of home market releases, including several that were contenders for Pick of the Week. There were two limited releases in that group, Love and Friendship and Tale of Tales. Love and Friendship got better reviews, but Tale of Tales’ Blu-ray is more interesting in my mind. Star Trek 50th Anniversary TV and Movie Collection is a great Blu-ray box set and would make an amazing gift. As for the Pick of the Week, that was an easy choice: The Iron Giant: Signature Edition on Blu-ray. Although if you are a hardcore fan, then the Ultimate Collector’s Edition might be worth the $75.
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July 8th, 2016
The Secret Life of Pets earned $5.3 million during its previews last night. This is not as much as the $6.24 million Minions made last year. It is higher than the $4.7 million Despicable Me 2 earned. (Despicable Me opened before previews were standard and only pulled in $590,000.) Its reviews have slipped to 76% positive, but that’s still good enough to suggest good legs. $80 million is more likely now than it was yesterday, but direct competition could prevent that from happening.
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May 31st, 2016
Last Memorial Day was bad with Tomorrowland leading the way with $33.03 million / $42.68 million. This year things were a bit better, with X-Men: Apocalypse earning $65.77 million / $79.81 million. Again, this is okay, but not outstanding. It's record-breaking compared to Alice Through the Looking Glass, which took in $26.86 million / $33.51 million. It's Disney's first bomb of the year. Don't feel bad for them, as they also set the record for fastest to $4 Billion Worldwide over the weekend. Overall, the box office was at $164 million, which was 20% better than last weekend and 18% better than last year. Including Monday, the box office pulled in $205 million, which was 6.3% more than last Memorial day. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $4.39 billion, which is 5.4% or $220 million more than last year's figure of $4.16 billion. (This does include Monday of last year, because of the misalignment of holiday. This is the last misaligned holiday till Labor Day.)
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May 26th, 2016
It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
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May 24th, 2016
While each film in the top five on this weekend's box office chart finished in the right place, none of them matched expectations, save for The Jungle Book, which earned fifth place. The Angry Birds Movie debuted on top of the chart with $38.16 million, which is an okay opening for a family film at this time of year and nothing more. Likewise, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising struggled compared to its predecessor, but did well compared to its budget. The Nice Guys will need long legs to break even. The overall box office rose 4.5% from last weekend, reaching $137 million, but fell 11% from the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 shrank to 5.1% or $200 million at $4.14 billion to $3.94 billion. This is a very impressive figure, but might not be enough to keep 2016 in the lead throughout the rest of the year. Jurassic World came out last June and there's little hope any film this June will match it.
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May 22nd, 2016
The Angry Birds Movie is performing at the top end of expectations this weekend, and will top the box office chart with a commendable $39 million. While that’s a long way behind the $75.1 million earned by Zootopia on its opening weekend back in March, it’s a very respectable figure, and gives Sony the increasingly-rare bragging rights over Disney this weekend, with Captain America: Civil War dropping to second place with $33.1 million.
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May 21st, 2016
The Angry Birds Movie earned first place on Friday’s box office chart with $11 million. This is in line with our reduced prediction after Thursday’s previews. The film’s reviews have fallen to just 42% positive, while its CinemaScore is just a B+. Both of those results are fine, for a kids film, I guess. (It’s hard to get worked up either way.) It won’t have the same internal multiplier that Zootopia had, so look for an opening weekend of just under $40 million and more than $100 million domestically. The film cost $80 million to make, so Rovio Animation needs the film to make about $300 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even. (Sony is taking a 7% cut to distribute the movie, but didn’t pay for its production or advertising.)
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May 20th, 2016
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising led the way during Thursday night previews pulling in $1.67 million in 2,627 theaters last night. This is a third less than Neighbors earned, while the its internal multiplier will also be smaller, due to weaker reviews and the Sequel Effect. That said, it is still aiming at $30 million over the weekend, which is very likely more than it cost to make.
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May 19th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, all of which are aimed at different target audiences. The Angry Birds Movie is aimed at families and will likely be the biggest hit of the weekend. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising is an R-rated comedy that is hoping to avoid a Horrible Bosses 2 drop-off. Finally there's The Nice Guys, which is aiming for counter-programming success. If it tops $15 million over the weekend, it will be seen as a success. Captain America: Civil War will still be in the mix and could earn the threepeat, but could also fall to third place. This weekend last year, all five films in the top five earned at least $20 million. That won't happen this year. 2016 will lose, but it won't be a disaster in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 18th, 2016
Captain America: Civil War remained in top spot as it races towards $1 billion worldwide. Over the weekend, it added $84.2 million in 55 markets lifting its international total to $645.0 million, while its worldwide total hit $941.0 million. The film had no new openings this past weekend, but it pulled in $31.87 million in China for a total of $155.95 million after 11 days in that market. The film will top $1 billion by Friday, at the latest.
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May 13th, 2016
It is actually challenging to decide which film should be the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. The Angry Birds Movie is expected to be the biggest hit opening next weekend, but Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising could open faster, but not have as strong legs. (The Nice Guys will be a midlevel hit, at the most.) Sorority Rising's international numbers are weaker than expected, so I'm going with The Angry Birds Movie as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Money Monster.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are; two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 11th, 2016
Before Captain America: Civil War came out, it was estimated that the film would need to make more than $600 million worldwide to break even. It did so after just two weeks of release. This weekend, the film earned $220.0 million in 55 markets for totals of $496.6 million internationally and $675.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market this past weekend was China, where it pulled in $96.07 million, including Thursday's previews. South Korea was the strongest holdover earning $11.75 million on 1,771 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $52.63 million. At this pace, the film has likely already crossed $700 million worldwide, while $1 billion is an easy target for the weekend. Speaking of billions of dollars, Disney has cracked $3 billion worldwide in record time. The previous record was set last year by Universal.
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May 1st, 2016
April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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