May 9th, 2021
Wrath of Man will pull off an easy win at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday morning’s projection from United Artists. It’s easily outperforming our model’s prediction with $8.1 million expected for the full weekend. Its strength probably had an adverse effect on the numbers for Demon Slayer, Mortal Kombat, and Godzilla vs. Kong, all of which failed to live up to expectations. With Here Today also struggling, we’re looking at a slightly down week at the box office.
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May 7th, 2021
Two new wide releases, Wrath of Man and Here Today, enter the fray this weekend, and will be hoping to capitalize on the rapidly-declining audiences for Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer to take them to the top of the chart. While Here Today has the least overlap with the other films audience-wise, our model thinks Wrath of Man will fair the better of the two on debut.
Here’s what the model has to say about each movie…
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May 2nd, 2021
Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugan Train and Mortal Kombat are both experiencing precipitous declines at the box office this weekend after openings that significantly outperformed expectations. FUNimation is claiming a win for the weekend with a projected $6.421 million for Demon Slayer, but Mortal Kombat is expected to bring in $6.235 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s a rounding error away, and the performance of each film today will determine who comes out on top when the final numbers are tallied.
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April 30th, 2021
After last weekend’s fireworks, business will be much quieter at the box office this time around, with horror movie Separation the only new wide release, and the winner of the weekend almost certainly down to which of Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train falls the least from their strong opening weekends. Our model thinks that Separation will find a place in the top six, but it’ll be well behind the reigning champions. Demon Slayer is marginally favored to top the chart in its second weekend, but the race will be close.
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April 25th, 2021
After a few pleasant surprises in recent months, this looks like the weekend that the theatrical business has been looking for. Not only is Mortal Kombat beating expectations with a weekend projected to hit $22.5 million, per Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning numbers, but Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train is headed for the second-best opening for an anime movie ever, behind 1999’s Pokemon: The First Movie, with a projected $19.5 million. What’s more, both films are R-rated, meaning that they firmly fall outside the family-film space that has been the brightest spot in the market recently.
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April 23rd, 2021
This weekend is shaping up to be a real David and Goliath battle, with indie distributor FUNimation going up against the might of Warner Bros., and looking likely to come out with their heads held high, even if a weekend win looks out of reach.
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April 18th, 2021
Another slightly disappointing result for Godzilla vs. Kong makes this a weekend where the theatrical market is treading water again. The top six will generate 12% less revenue than our model predicted, which is safely within its margin of error, and doesn’t really indicate any new weakness. But their combined box office will be 32% down from last weekend thanks to the lack of major new releases.
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April 4th, 2021
Godzilla vs. Kong will earn $32.2 million over the Friday–Sunday weekend, and deliver a $48.5-million 5-day opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. The film will earn an additional $3 million in Canada from its PVOD release there, which the studio offered to allow Canadian audiences to see the film while around 80% of the Canadian market remains closed. It’s also showing on HBO Max in the US, but the studio hasn’t offered any numbers on its performance there.
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