September 4th, 2019
It’s another short week with not a lot to talk about. The biggest release of the week is Men in Black International, but it missed expectations by a significant margin. The best first-run release is Booksmart, which also missed expectations by a significant margin, but it is still good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. In fact, it’s only competition is My Hero Academia: Season Three, Part Two. It came down to a literal coin toss and My Hero Academia won, but both deserve the title.
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August 21st, 2019
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I don’t like awarding the Pick of the Week to films only coming out on Video on Demand, but John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum is the best release of the week and it isn’t even particularly close.
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June 27th, 2019
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Toy Story 4 dominated the international chart with $120.0 million in 37 markets, representing 64% of the international marketplace. Interestingly, China wasn’t the film’s biggest market, as it had an absolute monster debut in Mexico taking top spot there with $23.82 million. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $16.90 million, which isn’t as strong as its opening here, but still impressive. Likewise, the film managed $13.4 million in China, which is good for an animated film there. Good, but not great. The film broke the record for an opening by an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million and did nearly as well in neighboring Argentina with $7.5 million. It was also impressive in South Korea with $7.47 million on 1,335 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $8.55 million.
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June 25th, 2019
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I think 2019 is done. The year isn’t quite halfway done, but I think I’m ready to call the box office race with 2018 over. Toy Story 4 was the latest potential monster hit to miss expectations by a huge margin. Granted, it still opened in first place with $120.10 million and it will make a substantial profit, but this is still about 25% lower than a lot of people expected and the overall weekend is still a massive disappointment. It did rise 50% from last weekend hitting $204 million, but this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year and that’s a much more important figure. Year-to-date, 2019 is now behind 2018 by 8.9% or $510 million at $5.26 billion to $5.77 billion. If you want to stretch for some good news, then this isn’t the worst deficit we’ve seen this year.
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June 23rd, 2019
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Almost none of the films on this week’s list are living up to expectations, at least not according to the weekend estimates. Toy Story 4 is earning the best opening in the franchise with an estimated $118.0 million weekend. This is third-highest opening for an animated film, so there is reason to celebrate. However, it is also much lower than expected and a little more front-loaded than anticipated, so its future might be in doubt. The film is doing better internationally with an estimated opening weekend of $120.0 million in 37 markets. The film had the third biggest opening in Mexico with $23.4 million, putting it behind just the two most recent Avengers movies. It had the biggest opening for an animated film in Brazil with $9.6 million. The film was also a monster hit in the U.K. with $15.0 million. On the other hand, it struggled in China with a second-place $13.4 million opening there; however, most animated films struggle in China. Hopefully the film’s reviews and its A from CinemaScore translate into long legs, because 2019 really needs more success stories at the box office.
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June 22nd, 2019
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Toy Story 4 is on pace to earn the third-best opening weekend for an animated film, but despite this, it will be seen as a disappointment, as many people were expecting a lot more. The film earned $47.39 million on Friday, putting it on pace for $123 million over the full weekend, which is behind Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory on the all-time opening chart for an animated film. It really needed to be higher up that list in order to help 2019 win in the year-over-year competition. At this pace, it won’t even match last year’s number one film, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. On the positive side, the film is earning 97% positive reviews and managed an A from CinemaScore, so it should have long legs. It will be a hit for Pixar and Disney is not going to lose money on this movie. However, I’m getting tired of big films failing to live up to expectations and I don’t think 2019 is going to be able to turn things around.
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June 20th, 2019
June has not lived up to expectations and unless Toy Story 4 is a record-breaking hit, we are going to end the month with a loss. I don’t think it will break records, but it will easily be the biggest hit of the month. Also opening this week is Child’s Play, the reboot to the long-running horror franchise of the same name. Finally, Anna is the latest film from Luc Besson and many are comparing it to Lucy. It’s not going to do that well. It likely won’t reach the top five. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148.02 million. I really hope Toy Story 4 tops that; however, even if it does, nothing playing this weekend is going to compare with Incredibles 2’s run last year, so 2019 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 20th, 2019
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Men in Black: International did substantially better internationally with $68.22 million on 40,600 screens in 65 markets over the weekend for a total opening of $73.03 million. Its worldwide total was $103.06 million, which isn’t a bad start for a film that cost $110 million to make. It needs to have great legs and a strong home market run to break even any time soon, but this isn’t a number that should cause the studio to panic either. The film’s biggest single market was China where it earned first place with a total opening of $25.90 million, including $25.35 million on 21,000 screens over the weekend. It only managed third place in South Korea with $3.45 million on 1,055 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $4.88 million. Overall, the film is about 20% behind Men in Black 3’s opening in the same markets; however, this film also cost nearly 50% less to make, so financially, it is an improvement.
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June 18th, 2019
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There is some good news to report, as the weekend final numbers beat both the projections based on Friday estimates and Sunday’s estimates. There’s also some bad news. Even with this improvement, the weekend was really soft at the box office. Men in Black: International led the way with just $30.04 million during its opening weekend, while only two other films topped $10 million over the weekend. This left the overall box office down 18% from last weekend to just $135 million. This is 50% lower than the same weekend last year; a decline that we normally only see when there is a misalignment in a holiday. However, in this case, it was due to Incredibles 2, which earned more by itself than the total box office did this year. This has left 2019 further behind 2018 and it is now off last year’s pace by 7.0% or $370 million at $4.99 billion to $5.36 billion. Several weeks worth of gaining ground has gone in a single weekend.
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June 16th, 2019
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According to weekend estimates, Men in Black: International is topping projections based on Friday estimates, but is still weaker than predicted with $28.5 million. This is a pleasant surprise, as the film’s reviews are terrible and its B from CinemaScore strongly suggested weaker legs. Maybe it will continue to surprise going forward. The film is doing much better internationally with $73.7 million on 41,400 screens in 56 markets. This includes $26.3 million in China, $5.1 million in Russia, $4.9 million in South Korea, and $3.9 million in Mexico. On the downside, the film has opened in most major markets, so it will be mostly coasting on holdovers at this point. It should still earn enough to cover its production budget worldwide, but that’s not enough to break even in any timely fashion.
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June 15th, 2019
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It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film’s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally.
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June 14th, 2019
Men in Black: International only managed $3.1 million during its previews on Thursday, which is well below the previews earned by Dark Phoenix ($5.9 million) and Godzilla: King of Monsters ($6.3 million). All three films have similar reviews and all three are part of long running franchises, so sadly this means Men in Black: International will likely have similar legs. Sony is still projecting $30 million over the weekend, but I’m not so sure anymore.
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June 13th, 2019
It’s a busy weekend at the box office with the potential for four new entries in the top ten. Unfortunately, only one of those films, Late Night, is earning good reviews. The other films’ reviews range from mediocre reviews to depressing reviews. Likewise, the four film’s box office chances range from mediocre, with Men in Black: International expected to open south of $30 million, to depressing, with some suggesting Late Night and / or The Dead Never Die missing the Mendoza Line. This weekend last year, Incredibles 2 opened with $182.69 million. That’s more than the entire box office will make this weekend. 2019 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 1st, 2019
While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point.
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April 25th, 2019
Sci-fi action movie starring Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson opens June 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 21st, 2018
Sci-fi adventure starring Chris Hemsworth and Tessa Thompson opens June 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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