Haunted by his turbulent past, Mad Max believes the best way to survive is to wander alone. Nevertheless, he becomes swept up with a group fleeing across the Wasteland in a War Rig driven by an elite Imperator, Furiosa. They are escaping a Citadel tyrannized by the Immortan Joe, from whom something irreplaceable has been taken. Enraged, the Warlord marshals all his gangs and pursues the rebels ruthlessly in the high-octane Road War that follows.
Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes…
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow.
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The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown.
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The Screen Actors Guild winners were handed out last night and for the most part the winners here will likely walk away with an Oscar. There is one major exception.
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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The Directors Guild of America spread out the nominations, which I always felt hurt the buzz. There are ten categories of awards, but only three of which pertain to theatrical releases. There are very few surprises across these three categories, so the Oscar nominations today shouldn't be full of surprises either.
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The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday evening. There were a few minor surprises and some infuriating results. On the other hand, no one film truly dominated, with The Revenant leading the way with just three wins. Only two other movies earned more than one win, The Martian and Steve Jobs.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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The Golden Globes nominations were announced this morning and we are already beginning to see a trend for this year's Awards Season. For the most part, the same films are coming up over and over again. Carol led the way with five awards, while there was a three-way tie for second place with The Big Short, The Revenant and Steve Jobs each picking up four.
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The Screen Actors Guild nominations were announced today and there are at least a few surprises to talk about. Trumbo led the way with three nominations, but there were six films with two nods apiece. Six!
It's Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets. I'm going to try to keep it to a dozen or so releases, as these columns are notorious for getting out of hand. Also, while there were a record number of $1 billion box office hits, there were not as many first run releases that earned stellar reviews this year.
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Six new releases from the week of September 15th reached the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 20th. This includes four in the top five and a new number one. Furious 7 earned first place with 1.87 million units / $31.89 million on the single release for an opening week Blu-ray share of 64%. Impressive. Meanwhile the second Fast and Furious FranchiseBox Set released this year earned fifth place with 62,000 units / $3.46 million. While the film very nearly earned twice that of its nearest competitor, it was still almost exactly 40% lower than Fast and Furious 6 opened with. This decline is huge, but all packaged media is down. Some of the slack is going to VOD, but a lot of home market revenue now goes to subscription streaming services like Netflix or Crunchyroll. Personally, I like packaged media, I still buy CDs, so this is bad news for me.
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There were eight releases from the week of September 1st to reach the top 30 on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for September 6th. This includes Mad Max: Fury Road, which sold 1.04 million units and generated $23.75 million in sales. There are three important notes. Firstly, the film's opening week Blu-ray share was 56%, which is excellent. Secondly, this was the first release to have opening week sales above 1 million units since Home debuted five weeks ago. Finally, these numbers don't include the FranchiseBox Set, which opened in 16th place with 27,000 units / $1.51 million.
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Summer is officially over, both in theaters and on the home market. This week, the new releases are led by Mad Max: Fury Road, which was not only one of the biggest hits of the summer, it was also one of the best. Nearly everything else of note is TV on DVD, so if you are a fan of those releases, it will be an expensive week. There were several contenders for Pick of the Week, including two TV on DVD releases (Castle: Season 7 and New Girl: The Complete Fourth Season), a documentary (Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me on DVD), but the winner is Mad Max: Fury Road on 3D Combo Pack.
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Fortunately, summer is coming to an end, so the quality of the home market releases will start to climb very soon. Unfortunately, this week the biggest first-run release is Unfriended. It is worth picking up, if you are a fan of the genre, but it is not exactly a blockbuster title. As for the best releases of the week, I Am Big Bird: The Caroll Spinney Story is close to the top of the list. However, in the end I went with Felicia Day: You're Never Weird on the Internet (Almost), which is a bit of an unorthodox choice, as it is not a DVD or Blu-ray. However, it is the best new release of the week.
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Jurassic World completed the trifecta over the weekend. Not only did the film have the largest domestic debut, it broke the same record internationally and worldwide. The film pulled in $315.61 million on 19,612 screens in 66 markets for a worldwide opening weekend of $524.42 million. It broke the previous international and worldwide records that were held by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II. It is also the first film to open with more than $500 million worldwide and it is just a matter of when, not if, it will top $1 billion globally. The only downside is the number of markets it has yet to open in, which is one. It debuts in Japan in August and it might be the biggest global hit of the year before it even gets there.
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Jurassic World is the only wide release this week and its box office potential is so high that it has scared away even the counter-programming. It isn't the only film playing in theaters this weekend, but it will very likely make more at the box office than the rest of them combined. Spy will be a distant second place and is hoping not to be crushed. If it can avoid falling 50%, it should have enough legs to reach the century mark. ... with a push from the studio. The only other film that is on track to earn more than $10 million over the weekend is San Andreas, which already crossed the $100 million mark. This weekend last year, two films opened wide, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Neither film will match Jurassic World individually, but they might have the advantage if you combine their openings. Additionally, there will only be two $10 million films this weekend, while there were three last year. 2015 will win on top, but 2014 has better depth and I think 2015 will lose the year-over-year comparison... again.
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San Andreas remained in first place over the weekend with $97.8 million in 69 markets for a total of $188.0 million internationally and $286.5 million worldwide. It is almost guaranteed that the film's production budget is fully covered and the film should have the legs to cover its full advertising budget before its international run is over. That means its home market run will be pure gravy. This week, its biggest market was China, where the film earned first place with $34.26 million over the weekend for a six-day opening of $51.95 million. It won't last in first place for long, as Jurassic World has already opened in that market and taken over top spot. (More on that this time next week.) Its next biggest opening was South Korea, where it also earned first place with $5.74 million on 847 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.25 million.
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None of the three new releases matched expectations and while the holdovers pulled their weight, it wasn't enough to help the overall box office. Spy didn't make it to $30 million during its opening weekend, but it came within a rounding error of that mark. Insidious Chapter 3 did very well compared to its production budget, but will likely be the weakest installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, if it weren't for its lower production budget, Entourage would be considered a bomb. Overall, the box office fell 4.3% from last weekend to $133 million. Worse still, the box office fell 18% from last year. Year-to-date, the overall box office has pulled in $4.39 billion, which is 1.2% above 2014's pace.
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There are three wide releases this week, including one that is already in theaters. The biggest of these three releases is Spy, which is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Both of their previous films crossed $100 million with ease. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film in the Insidious franchise, but most think it won't be the best. Entourage started out ahead of expectations, but its reviews could cause a quick decline. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with nearly $50 million, while Maleficent landed in second place with more than $30 million. I don't think 2015 will be strong on top, but I think it will have better depth.
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San Andreas opened in first place on the international chart with $63.9 million on 15,420 screens in 60 markets. Its best international market was Mexico where it earned first place with $9.97 million. It also opened in first place in Australia with $2.47 million in 449 theaters. The film generated $7.07 million in 505 theaters in the U.K. and $5.16 million on 2,256 screens in Russia. The film was also potent in Brazil with an opening of $3.2 million in 926 theaters, while it earned a nearly identical amount in France with $3.19 million in 496. It is still too soon to tell where the film will end up, but it made more worldwide than it cost to make during its opening weekend, so the studio must be happy.
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The post-holiday weekend was softer than the holiday weekend, which is to be expected. However, thanks to a stronger than predicted opening by San Andreas, it wasn't as bad as it could have been. On the other hand, Aloha was on the low end of expectations. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend to $139 million, which is acceptable. By comparison, the overall box office fell 17% from this weekend last year, as San Andreas couldn't keep up with Maleficent's opening. Year-to-date, 2015 has pulled in $4.20 billion, putting it 1.2% ahead of 2014's pace of $4.15 million. 2015 is coming dangerously close to losing its lead over last year.
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The weekend after a holiday is usually a bad weekend at the box office. This time around, San Andreas is the clear front-runner while Aloha might struggle, even as counter-programming. San Andreas will earn more than $30 million over the weekend, no other film is on track to hitting $20 million. On the other hand, there could be six other films that earn $10 million or more over the weekend. By comparison, this weekend last year, Maleficent opened with nearly $70 million, while X-Men: Days of Future Past earned more than $30 million. There's no way the top of the chart will match that. Even with better depth, it is very unlikely 2015 will win in the year-over-year comparison.
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For the fifth week in a row, The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in first place. This week it pulled in $45.8 million in 91 markets for month-long totals of $859.8 million internationally and $1.265 billion worldwide. The film made $53.98 million in China, but that was for the full week, giving it a running tally of $209.39 million after 13 days of release. At this pace, the film should have no trouble hitting $900 million internationally and $1.3 million worldwide, likely over the weekend. Meanwhile, it has yet to open in Japan and should made $50 million, more or less, in that market alone. Will it get to $1 billion internationally? It is still too soon to tell. It should at least be close.
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The Memorial Day long weekend was not as strong as anticipated, as no film in the top five really topped expectations. Tomorrowland did earn first place, but it barely earned more in four days as it was expected to earn in three. Pitch Perfect 2 crossed $100 million over the weekend and The Avengers: Age of Ultron crossed $400 million, so those milestones helped cushion the blow. Even so, the overall box office fell 18% when compared to last week, falling to $152 million over the three day weekend. It was also down 19% from last year over the three day period. Over four days, the box office pulled in $191 million, which was 17% lower than the same weekend last year. This is a disappointing loss. 2015 is still ahead of 2014, albeit by a margin of just 2.1% at $4.02 billion to $3.95 billion.
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The good news this Memorial Day weekend is that five movies will gross over $20 million. The bad news is that none of them will do any better than Tomorrowland’s soft $32 million debut. Disney’s latest will barely scrape in ahead of Pitch Perfect 2 over three days, with the singing sensation expected to generate $30.3 million. Over four days, Tomorrowland may pull into a slightly larger lead, thanks to its more family-friendly nature, but it will take a much better performance overseas for the sci-fi adventure to recoup its costs.
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It's Memorial Day long weekend, which is one of the best weekends of the year at the box office. There are two new releases trying to take advantage of the holiday, Tomorrowland and Poltergeist. There are also three major holdovers that will remain potent over the weekend: Mad Max: Fury Road, Pitch Perfect 2, and The Avengers: Age of Ultron. There's a chance all five of these films will made $30 million or more over the next four days. Like we've seen most weeks this summer, this weekend last year had a much bigger hit on top. X-Men: Days of Future Past opened with more than $90 million, but only one other film, Godzilla earned more than $15 million over the three-day weekend. So again, 2015 won't match 2014 at the top, but the depth should help 2015 win in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Avengers: Age of Ultron remained in first place with ease earning $185.0 million in 91 markets for totals of $770.5 million internationally and $1.143 billion worldwide. The film is now the eighth biggest hit of all time, while two of the films above it are also from the Marvel Cinematic Universe. We actually thought that Disney might have overpaid when they bought Marvel. We were wrong. In our defense, no one saw this coming. This past weekend, the film opened in first place in China with $84.84 million for a six-day opening of $154.63 million. China is already the biggest market for Age of Ultron's international run, and it only took four days to get there. Up next for the film is Japan, but the film doesn't open there till July.
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The winners of our Bad Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Mad Max: Fury Road opening weekend were...
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Pitch Perfect 2 opened in first place on the overall chart and matched that on the per theater chart earning an average of $19,930. I'll See You in My Dreams placed second with an average of $16,447 in three theaters. Its reviews suggest it has at least some potential to expand. Pather Panchali was the only holdover in the $10,000 club with $14,793 in its lone theater during its second week of release. Mad Max: Fury Road earned an average of $12,271. It is not that common that we have two wide releases in the $10,000 club. Every Secret Thing was the final film in the $10,000 with $11,083 in one theater.
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The overall box office was a little stronger than expected, including the number one film. Pitch Perfect 2 did something very few sequels do. It opened with more during its first weekend than its predecessor made in total. Mad Max: Fury Road also opened with more than Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome earned in total, but it has 30 years of inflation and population growth of roughly 33% to help it out, so it is a less impressive feat. Because both wide releases were so strong, the overall box office grew by 40% from last weekend to $184 million. This was also 3.4% higher than the same weekend last year, which allowed 2015 to maintain its lead over 2014. At the moment, 2015 is ahead of 2014 by 3.2% or $120 million at $3.78 billion to $3.66 billion.
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Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2 both open wide this week. It is normally not a good idea to have two films competing for limited box office dollars, but these two films have divergent enough target audiences that it is unlikely that they will cannibalize each other too much. The Avengers: Age of Ultron will also still do well this weekend and help the overall box office do well. This weekend last year, Godzilla led the way with $93 million during its opening weekend. Neither Mad Max: Fury Road nor Pitch Perfect 2 will earn that much this weekend; however, they should earn more than that combined. Additionally, Age of Ultron should earn more than last year's second place film, Neighbors, and this depth could give 2015 the win in the year-over-year comparison.
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There is a two-horse race next week with Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2. While I think people are underestimating Pitch Perfect 2, Fury Road should have a faster start. Because of this, it is the choice for the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Mad Max: Fury Road.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize. Normally I just grab prizes at random, but in this case the first prize I grabbed was Bad Santa on Unrated DVD. At first I thought, "I can't give out Christmas DVDs in May?" But why not? So each Frankenprize includes one Christmas release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray and a Christmas release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed DVD or Blu-ray and a Christmas release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April is over and there was good news and bad news. Good news: Furious 7 crushed the competition, and broke records along the way. Bad news: Furious 7 crushed the competition and no other April release will earn as much in total as Furious 7 earned during its opening day. Fortunately, Furious 7 was so strong that it carried April of 2015 to a draw when compared to April of 2014. May has a lot of similarities to April. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is expected to break records during its opening weekend and even the low end has it earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, no other film is going to come close to that figure. There are five other films with a potential to reach $100 million at the box office. The keyword there is "potential". There's a chance less than half of those five films will get to that milestone. And like last April, last May had much better depth with five films that reached $100 million, including four that surpassed $200 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than the combined totals of Maleficent, last month's winner, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, which placed second for the month. I am a little concerned about the lack of depth this month and this could cause May to lose in the month-over-month comparison in the end.
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Because some of our sources provide box office data in their local currency, while we use USD in the graph above and table below, exchange rate fluctuations can have effect on the data causing stronger increases or even decreases of the cumulative box office.
Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.
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