Home Market Releases for January 31st, 2017

January 31st, 2017

It’s a slow week at the top, as there are no new releases that were hits in theaters. That doesn’t mean we have no contenders for Pick of the Week, just that they are smaller films or ones that struggled in theaters. Queen of Katwe is the best of this list and the Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for January 17th, 2017

January 17th, 2017

The are not many major releases on this week’s home market release list. The Girl on the Train is the biggest, but it is not the best. It is not even close to being the best. The race for best was mostly a two-way race between Long Way North and Ouija: Origin of Evil, with Ixcanul and Train to Busan being close behind. In the end, I went with Long Way North on Blu-ray Combo Pack as the Pick of the Week, but all four are worth owning. More...

International Box Office: Nothing Strange About Doctor’s $86.0 million International Debut

November 3rd, 2016

Doctor Strange started its international run in first place with $86.0 million in 33 markets. This is 49% better than Ant-Man’s debuts in these markets. If the film does as well here, it would earn $85 million this coming weekend. The film’s biggest international market was South Korea, where it debuted with $12.95 million on 1,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $18.05 million. It dominated the weekend box office there. It earned an easy first place in the U.K. with $11.29 million in 602 theaters. The film also opened in first place in France ($5.7 million); Australia ($4.90 million); Germany ($4.8 million); and Mexico ($4.67 million). If the film does as well during the rest of its international run, it will earn just over $500 million internationally. However, since its reviews are better than Ant-Man’s reviews were, it could have even better legs. We will know more this time next week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Madea puts out Inferno’s Fire earning $17.22 million

November 1st, 2016

Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year. More...

Friday Estimates: Inferno Generates Little Heat with $5.6 million

October 29th, 2016

As expected, Inferno earned first place on Friday. However, it was unexpectedly weak at just $5.6 million. Even strong legs over the weekend would result in an opening of just over $15 million. Given its reviews and its B+ rating from CinemaScore, it won’t have strong legs. Just over $14 million seems more likely at this point. Although it is aimed at a more mature crowd, so that could help. Plus, it is performing much better internationally, so it could break even regardless of how much it makes domestically. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Inferno Catch Fire over the Weekend?

October 27th, 2016

There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Jack Reaches for the Top earning $31.5 million

October 27th, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opened in first place internationally with $31.5 million in 31 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned $5.56 million, including previews. The film’s second biggest market was in the U.K. where it earned $3.28 million in 519 theaters. This is lower than it opened here, given the relative size of the two markets, and much lower than the $5.75 million the first film opened with. Granted, that film opened in the U.K. right around Christmas, but overall Never Go Back is underperforming. This is really bad news for Paramount Pictures, as they’ve had a bad year with a number of high-profile, high-cost movies failing to break even and really can’t afford another misstep. More...

Contest: Within Reach: Winning Announcement

October 26th, 2016

The winners of our Within Reach contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opening weekend were... More...

Weekend Wrap-up: Madea Treats Herself to $28.50 Million

October 25th, 2016

2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future. More...

Weekend Estimates: Jack Reacher No Match for Madea

October 23rd, 2016

Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Madea Scares the Competition with $9.4 million

October 22nd, 2016

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jack Reaches $1.33 million during Previews

October 21st, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Reacher Reach the Top?

October 20th, 2016

It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in. More...

Contest: Number Crunching: Winning Announcement

October 19th, 2016

The winners of our Number Crunching contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Accountant opening weekend were... More...

Contest: Within Reach

October 14th, 2016

There are five films opening wide or semi-wide next week. Of those, only Jack Reacher: Never Go Back has a realistic shot at first place. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back.

We are back to the usual Halloween Trick or Treat prizes. After determining the three winners, two will be given horror movies, the “Treats” while the third will be given a movie so bad it is scary it was made, the “Trick”.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of three winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will be the second of three winners. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the third of three winners.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

2016 Preview: October

October 1st, 2016

September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result. More...

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back Trailer

July 22nd, 2016

Thriller starring Tom Cruise, directed by Edward Zwick, opens October 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...