January 23rd, 2017
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It’s not a particularly good week for top-notch releases. There are only three contenders for Pick of the Week, one of which doesn’t come out till next week. I was able to review Pinocchio a week early. The others are a classic from the 1970s, The Man Who Fell To Earth on Blu-ray Combo Pack, and an import from South Korea, The Handmaiden on DVD. Even though The Handmaiden is only coming out on DVD, it is still the best and is this week’s Pick of the Week.
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November 9th, 2016
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Doctor Strange added $118.7 million in 54 markets for totals of $240.4 million internationally and $325.5 million worldwide. It has already overtaken The Incredible Hulk in the MCU and is rapidly closing in on Captain America: The First Avenger. This weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $44.12 million, including some previews, as well as in Brazil with $7.9 million. The film also expanded wide in Russia earning $8.49 million over the weekend for a total of $15.63 million. On the downside, the film has already opened in all major markets, except for Japan, where it doesn’t open until January. With what it has pulled in so far, anything less than $600 million will be seen as troubling, while anything more than $750 million will be seen as a success.
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November 7th, 2016
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Doctor Strange’s opening weekend was off by 0.069% when compared to our prediction. I think that gives us reason to brag. Both Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge beat expectations by a relatively significant margin. Overall, the weekend box office rose 115% from last weekend to $191 million. That’s 18% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 increased to 5.6% or $490 million at $9.28 billion to $8.79 billion. If 2016 can maintain this lead until Rogue One comes out, then 2016 will win in the end.
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November 5th, 2016
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As expected, Doctor Strange dominated the Friday box office chart with $32.56 million. This is 19% higher than Spectre’s opening day was last year, which is great news. Granted, Doctor Strange had much better previews, so the actual 24-hour Friday numbers are much closer. On the other hand, Doctor Strange’s reviews remain 90% positive, while its CinemaScore is an impressive A. Spectre earned 65% positive reviews and an A- from CinemaScore. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Doctor Strange will open with $84 million. However, the Fanboy Effect will likely keep it to just above $80 million. This is still a great start and another smash hit from the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
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November 3rd, 2016
Doctor Strange is the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe and arguably the strangest one. It is widely expected to dominate the box office this weekend. Trolls is expected to open way back in second place, but still have a strong showing. The final wide release of the week is Hacksaw Ridge, which appears to be getting lost in the crowd. This weekend last year. Spectre and The Peanuts Movie had a one-two punch that earned a combined $115 million. I think Doctor Strange / Trolls will top that figure giving 2016 the win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 3rd, 2016
Doctor Strange started its international run in first place with $86.0 million in 33 markets. This is 49% better than Ant-Man’s debuts in these markets. If the film does as well here, it would earn $85 million this coming weekend. The film’s biggest international market was South Korea, where it debuted with $12.95 million on 1,500 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $18.05 million. It dominated the weekend box office there. It earned an easy first place in the U.K. with $11.29 million in 602 theaters. The film also opened in first place in France ($5.7 million); Australia ($4.90 million); Germany ($4.8 million); and Mexico ($4.67 million). If the film does as well during the rest of its international run, it will earn just over $500 million internationally. However, since its reviews are better than Ant-Man’s reviews were, it could have even better legs. We will know more this time next week.
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November 2nd, 2016
The winners of our Burn it Down contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Inferno's opening weekend were...
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November 1st, 2016
Halloween helped boost Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween’s numbers over the weekend allowing it to earn first place with $17.22 million. This was much better than the $14.86 million Inferno opened with. While Halloween didn’t happen until Monday, the holiday still had a negative effect on the box office, as it fell 29% to just $88 million. That’s worse than anticipated. Compared to the same weekend last year, 2016 was better by 17%, but it’s hard to spin this as a real victory. Year-to-date, 2016’s lead over 2015 barely budged at $9.06 billion to $8.69 billion. That said, if 2016 can just maintain this lead till Rogue One debuts, then we should have at least some growth at the end of the year.
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October 30th, 2016
What was meant to be the weekend that the Fall Season started in earnest has turned into a damp squib, with Inferno not just failing to hit expectations, but not even topping the chart. With just $15 million expected this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday morning projection, the franchise has shown a dismal downward trajectory at the domestic box office. The Da Vinci Code opened with $77 million in 2006; Angels & Demons debuted with $46 million in 2009; and now Inferno will earn less on its opening weekend than either of its predecessors made on their opening days.
The weak opening for Inferno follows a string of so-so results for films over the past couple of months. Perhaps the reality show that is our presidential election is dragging down theatrical business?
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October 29th, 2016
As expected, Inferno earned first place on Friday. However, it was unexpectedly weak at just $5.6 million. Even strong legs over the weekend would result in an opening of just over $15 million. Given its reviews and its B+ rating from CinemaScore, it won’t have strong legs. Just over $14 million seems more likely at this point. Although it is aimed at a more mature crowd, so that could help. Plus, it is performing much better internationally, so it could break even regardless of how much it makes domestically.
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October 28th, 2016
Inferno got off to a slow start with midnight previews earning just $800,000. That’s well below the other thrillers that have opened this month. In fact, it is on par with Deepwater Horizon’s previews at the end of September. That film earned just over $20 million, which isn’t a bad opening, but it isn’t a great opening for a film that cost $75 million to make. Things get worse for Inferno, as it has terrible reviews and it is part of a franchise, so its legs will likely be shorter. At the moment, it is on pace for a sub-$20 million debut; however, that might change when we see Friday’s estimates. Maybe it will bounce back, or maybe things will get worse.
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October 27th, 2016
There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison.
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October 27th, 2016
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opened in first place internationally with $31.5 million in 31 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned $5.56 million, including previews. The film’s second biggest market was in the U.K. where it earned $3.28 million in 519 theaters. This is lower than it opened here, given the relative size of the two markets, and much lower than the $5.75 million the first film opened with. Granted, that film opened in the U.K. right around Christmas, but overall Never Go Back is underperforming. This is really bad news for Paramount Pictures, as they’ve had a bad year with a number of high-profile, high-cost movies failing to break even and really can’t afford another misstep.
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October 26th, 2016
The winners of our Within Reach contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opening weekend were...
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October 20th, 2016
There is only one film opening wide next week, Inferno, so obviously it is the only choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Inferno
We are back to the usual Halloween Trick or Treat prizes. After determining the three winners, two will be given horror movies, the “Treats”, while the third will be given a movie so bad it is scary it was made, the “Trick”.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of three winners.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will be the second of three winners.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the third of three winners.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 19th, 2016
Inferno started its international run in first place with $49.75 million on 12,293 screens in 64 markets. However, its individual markets are a bit of a mess. On the low end, the film only managed second place in the U.K. with $3.62 million on 591 screens, while it also had to settle for second place in Australia with $1.73 million on 266. Given the size of those two markets, this is like opening with just under $20 million here. On the other hand, the film earned first place in Italy ($5.07 million on 679 screens); Russia ($4.81 million on 2,032); and Germany ($4.09 million on 768). Those markets suggest a $40 million to $50 million opening here. Sadly, I think the lower end is more likely here.
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October 1st, 2016
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September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result.
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