March 8th, 2016
It's March 8th, which is International Women's Day. This is the one day a year where men flood Twitter asking, "Why isn't there an International Men's Day." ... There is. It's November 19th. ... Anyway, it isn't a great week for new releases. The biggest release is The Peanuts Movie and its 3D Combo Pack is a Pick of the Week contender. However, it just misses out on that title to Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Season 1.
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January 29th, 2016
Kids movies rarely have "midnight" shows and that was the case with Kung Fu Panda 3. This left The Finest Hours with the perfect opportunity to grab some of the spotlight. It only managed $375,000 during its previews, which is $200,000 less than In the Heart of the Sea managed late last year. It is closer to the $400,000 Selma earned before its wide expansion. The two films do have similar release dates and are based on real life events, but an action film should do better than a drama when it comes to previews. Even if we are being generous, $12 million looks like the high end for the weekend and that's terrible compared to its $85 million production budget. Less then $10 million is just as likely and that could result in someone losing their job.
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January 28th, 2016
There are three, three and a half, wide releases coming out this week. (I've seen reports that Jane Got a Gun is opening in 600 to 1,200 theaters. Even the high end will likely keep it out of the top ten.) Of the three truly wide releases, only Kung Fu Panda 3 is expected to be a significant hit. In fact, it will likely earn more than the rest of the top five combined. On the other hand, The Finest Hours will likely bomb compared to its $85 million production budget, while Fifty Shades of Black will be a financial hit only because its production budget is very low. This means for Kung Fu Panda 3 the only real competition is from last year, when American Sniper earned $30.66 million. Kung Fu Panda 3 should top that by about $20 million. Additionally, no other film earned more than $10 million last year, while this year there could be five films in the top five reaching that mark. 2016 should bounce back in the year-over-year comparison after two soft weeks.
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December 21st, 2015
It's been a busy weekend for box office record watchers, as Star Wars: The Force Awakens destroyed the record book. However, it wasn't the only film playing in theaters. The Force Awakens earned $247.97 million, which by itself is the 11th biggest Combined Box Office. Add in Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, the new limited releases and all of the holdovers, and the total box office reached $313 million, topping the old record of $274 million. Needless to say, the overall box office was higher compared to last weekend by 304%. It was also higher than last year by a margin of 131%. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $10.13 billion, putting it 5.9% or $560 million ahead of last year's pace. 2015's lead over 2014 grew by more than 1.5 percentage points / $160 million over just one weekend.
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December 18th, 2015
Star Wars: The Force Awakens broke Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s record for biggest previews by scoring $57 million on Thursday evening. It didn’t just beat the old record, it destroyed it. $57 million is 31% more than the previous record of $43.5 million. This bodes very well for the film’s box office chances, both for today and for the full weekend. On the downside, there are reports that men made up 70% of the audience, which is really high. It could be that women stayed away for the most part because they were worried about the crowds and that the gender balance will be different the rest of the weekend. We should have more information on that by Monday.
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December 17th, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them matters: Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Better than anticipated reviews could help it break records over the weekend. It has already broken some box office records, becoming the first film to reach $100 million in advance ticket sales. The other wide releases are Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip and Sisters, both of which are just trying to not completely disappear. This weekend last year, the total box office was $135 million. The Force Awakens could earn nearly 50% more than that and some would still see it as a disappointment. 2015 should extend its lead over 2014 by more than $100 million.
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December 16th, 2015
Surprise You’ll Never Think Of: Journey To The West took $17.54 million over four days, giving it first place in both China and internationally. Journey To The West is one of the most popular Chinese stories ever written and is like the Hamlet of Chinese literature. Hamlet has over 50 feature-length film adaptations and Journey To The West is quickly catching up to that number.
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December 16th, 2015
The winners of our Learn Your ABSeas contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for In the Heart of the Sea opening weekend were...
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December 14th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 remained in first place for the fourth weekend in a row, which is terrible news for the box office. A film repeating on top happens a lot, but to get to four weeks in a row, it means the new releases have been particularly weak. That was the case this week, as In the Heart of the Sea had to settle for second place with well below expectations. Overall, the box office fell 21% from last weekend to $78 million. This is 7.2% lower than the same weekend last year. Had In the Heart of the Sea merely matched predictions, then 2015 would have won in the year-over-year competition. Year-to-date, 2015 has earned $9.79 billion, putting it almost exactly $400 million ahead of last year's pace.
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December 13th, 2015
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay—Part 2 will cruise to another victory at the box office this weekend, for the simple reason that In the Heart of the Sea is having a terrible opening. Mockingjay will be down another 40% in its fourth weekend, and will pick up a relatively modest $11.3 million, taking its domestic total to $244.5 million. That confirms it as comfortably the worst-performing film in the franchise, and even a Christmas-season boost at the box office will leave it under $300 million in total. That, however, is unimaginable riches compared to the performance of Heart of the Sea.
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December 12th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea started out in first place on Friday, but won’t be on top for long. It earned just $3.85 million, putting it ahead of The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, which earned $3.26 million. However, holdovers have a lot bigger gains on Saturday, while In the Heart of the Sea will likely fall and miss $10 million over the weekend. This is a disaster for a film that cost $100 million to make. This is bad news for Warner Bros., as it is not the first major flop they’ve had this year. Outside of American Sniper, which opened in 2014, they haven’t had a single monster hit (domestic box office of $200 million or more). On the other end, they’ve had three films with $100 million production budgets that flopped this year (Jupiter Ascending, Pan, and now In the Heart of the Sea). Worse still, they have one more $100 million movie coming out this year, Point Break, and it is widely expected to flop as well. For years, Warner Bros. was the biggest studio in the world, but after this year, there might need to be a major shake up to turn things around.
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December 11th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea started its box office run last night earning a mere $575,000 in previews. This is the same as The Age of Adaline managed earlier this year. Admittedly, those two films have very little in common and are not a good comparison, so we will have to look elsewhere to figure out what this opening means. A better comparison would be Exodus: Gods and Kings, which opened this week last year. That film earned $1.2 million during its previews, but only managed $24.12 million during its opening weekend and $65.01 million during its domestic run. Assuming the same legs, this puts In the Heart of the Sea on pace for an opening weekend of $11.56 million, which might not be enough for first place. Worse still, it would be on pace for a domestic total of just $31.15 million on a $100 million budget. That might actually be too generous for this film, because Exodus didn't have to deal with Star Wars: The Force Awakens during its sophomore stint. We will know more about this film's weekend chances this time tomorrow when the Friday numbers are released.
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December 10th, 2015
There's only one wide release this week, In the Heart of the Sea, although some sources still have Legend expanding nationwide. Of course, expanding nationwide doesn't mean the same thing as expanding truly wide. Because In the Heart of the Sea doesn't have any real competition this weekend, it is widely expected to earn first place, but it isn't expected to be a smash hit. It is very unlikely it will do as well as last year's number one film, Exodus: Gods and Kings. The depth is a little better this year, but 2015 will still likely struggle to match 2014 in the year-over-year comparison.
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December 9th, 2015
It was a milestone weekend for The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, as it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $32.4 million in 93 markets for totals of $296.8 million internationally and $524.2 million worldwide. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it pulled in $4.77 million on 1,127 screens for a three-week total of $30.53 million. On the other hand, its biggest market overall has been the U.K., where it has made $35.21 million, including $3.38 million in 539 theaters this past weekend. There are rumors that Lionsgate are working on prequels for this franchise. Not sure that's a good idea.
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December 9th, 2015
The winners of our Krampus is Coming For You contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Krampus opening weekend were...
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December 4th, 2015
In the Heart of the Sea is the only wide release next week, so it is the only choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for In the Heart of the Sea.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
There is a difference this time. Two people will earn Frankenprizes consisting of two good movies; I'm going to try for Christmas movies, but I can't promise it. The other winner will earn a Frankprize consisting of two "lumps of coal" movies. ... I have plenty of those. .
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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December 1st, 2015
November ended on a positive note with a strong Thanksgiving weekend. Even so, the overall numbers were mixed with a lot of misses mixed in with a few hits. It was better than October and we will call that a victory. Meanwhile, December is potentially record-breaking. Actually, given the evidence, it is almost assuredly going to be record-breaking. Star Wars: The Force Awakens has already set a record for the most money taken from ticket pre-sales and the biggest December weekend will fall. The pre-orders alone will guarantee that. On the downside, it is very likely that no film will make as much in total as The Force Awakens will make during its opening weekend. There's a chance no film makes in total as much as The Force Awakens makes during its opening day. There are a few films that have a shot at $100 million. For example, Joy should get there, if it becomes a major player during Awards Season. If not, it will at least come close. Daddy's Home, and to a lesser extent Sisters, could be surprise $100 million hits. However, like the rest of 2015, December is shaping up to be a month of a record-breaking hit and a lot of films that struggle just to get noticed. On the other hand, last December, was a lot more balanced at the top with four films earning more than $100 million, led by The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. There's a chance The Force Awakens earns more than all four $100 million hits from last year earned combined.
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