August 21st, 2019
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I don’t like awarding the Pick of the Week to films only coming out on Video on Demand, but John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum is the best release of the week and it isn’t even particularly close.
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August 19th, 2019
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The Hustle’s release date was pushed back a year at the last minute, which is a sign that MGM lost faith in the film. When it was finally released, it did well at the box office, earning nearly $100 million worldwide on a $21 million production budget. Would the film have performed better had the studio had more faith? Or was it lucky it made this much in the first place?
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May 22nd, 2019
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Pokémon: Detective Pikachu remained in first place earning $56.4 million on 32,113 screens in 72 markets for totals of $196.2 million internationally and $290.6 million worldwide. The film’s only major market debut of the weekend, and indeed the last major market of the film’s international run, was Russia. It earned first place there with $4.0 million on 3,085 screens. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $17.94 million on 15,000 screens to its running tally, which now sits at $69.66 million after two weeks of release. It fell 55% during its sophomore stint, which is an amazing hold for this market. The film has no major market openings going forward, but it should stick around long enough to crack $300 million internationally and even has a slim shot at $500 million worldwide.
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May 21st, 2019
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The overall weekend was about as good as anyone could hope for with John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum topping expectations with $56.82 million. This mostly made up for A Dog’s Journey and The Sun is Also A Star, both of which missed low expectations. However, the overall weekend still fell 12% when compared to last weekend at $147 million and this is 30% lower than the same weekend last year. To be fair, almost no one was expecting this year to match last year, because last year Deadpool 2 opened. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 by a 9.2% or $410 million margin at $4.03 billion to $4.44 billion. Fortunately, if Aladdin does as well next weekend as many are expecting, then this losing streak will end after just one week.
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May 19th, 2019
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John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is way ahead of the weekend competition with a projected $57.03 million opening weekend. This is not only more than the next two films combined, it is more than the first film in the John Wick franchise earned domestically. Add in the film’s reviews, its A minus from CinemaScore, and Memorial Day long weekend, which is next weekend, and it should have relatively long legs. $150 million domestically isn’t out of the question. Like the other films in the John Wick franchise, this one isn’t doing as well internationally. However, it is still step up from the second film with an opening weekend of $35.2 million from 66 markets. This includes number one debuts in the U.K. ($4.6 million) and Australia ($2.8 million), while it had to settle for second place in Russia ($3.8 million) and third place in Mexico ($2.1 million). The film likely cost $50 million to make and an equal amount to advertise, while Lionsgate’s share of the global opening weekend is likely north of $40 million. The film is on pace to break even before it reaches the home market.
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May 18th, 2019
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John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum got off to a surprisingly strong start on Friday with $22.67 million during its first day of release. Even if we subtract Thursday’s previews, this is still more than the first film made during its opening weekend. It would take incredibly short legs for Parabellum to not earn more during its opening weekend than the first film earned in total. It should have reasonable legs over the weekend. Granted, it is a sequel and its target audience is known to rush out to theaters; however, its reviews are strong and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, tying it with the second film for best in the franchise. With a little luck, it will crack $60 million over the full weekend.
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May 16th, 2019
This weekend likely won’t be a particularly good one at the box office, when compared to last weekend and especially when compared to last year. There are three wide releases, but only John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum is expected to make a significant impact at the box office. A Dog’s Journey could become a midlevel hit, while The Sun is Also A Star might not open in the top five. Fortunately, both Pokémon: Detective Pikachu and Avengers: Endgame should provide some power at the box office. Unfortunately, this weekend last year, Deadpool 2 debuted with just over $125 million. There’s almost no chance 2019 will match 2018 at the box office and the year’s mini-wining streak is about to come to an end.
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May 16th, 2019
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Pokémon: Detective Pikachu won what was perhaps the closest race on the international chart in my time on the job. The film won first place with $103.0 million on 36,633 screens in 62 markets for totals of $112.4 million internationally and $166.9 million worldwide. The film dominated the chart in China earning first place with $40.61 million on an estimated 20,000 screens. It also earned first place in the U.K. with $6.46 million in 579 theaters. On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Germany ($5.0 million on 1,220 screens); France ($4.8 million in 467 theaters); Mexico ($4.36 million on 2,686 screens); and Australia ($3.5 million on 412 screens). The film only managed fourth place in South Korea with $1.71 million on 817 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.20 million. The film debuts in Russia this weekend and while this isn’t the last market, it is the last major market.
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May 14th, 2019
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The two biggest hits of the weekend were not as potent as predicted, but Avengers: Endgame and Pokémon: Detective Pikachu both have reasons to celebrate. Endgame became only the fourth film to reach $700 million domestically, while Detective Pikachu nearly entered the top ten video game adaptations of all time after just its opening weekend. As for the other wide releases, The Hustle did fine and the less said about Poms and Tolkien the better. The overall box office 16% from last weekend hitting $168 million. However, this was 21% higher than the same weekend last year, which is clearly the more important figure, as 2019 continues to try and climb out of the hole it dug for itself. It is now behind last year by 8.7% or $370 million at $3.83 billion to $4.20 billion.
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May 12th, 2019
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If projections hold, then Avengers: Endgame will fall almost as much this weekend as it did during its second weekend, with a 57% decline taking it to $63.1 million time around, and a three-week total of $723.5 million. It is very unusual for a film to not rebound significantly during in third weekend of release. One sign of how quickly the film is dropping after its enormous opening is that it will have “only” the fourth-biggest third weekend, slipping behind Black Panther at this point in its run.
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May 11th, 2019
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Pokémon: Detective Pikachu earned first place on Friday with $20.6 million. This is a little weaker than we predicted and this suggests its a little more of a Fanboy film than a Family Film. That said, while this will result in marginally shorter legs, the film will still have a potent opening of about $57 million, thanks in part to Mother’s Day. This is slightly higher than its pre-release tracking, so it is worth celebrating. Additionally, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is better than its reviews and that will further help its chances in the long run. Internationally, the film pulled in $23.1 million on 36,300 screens in 62 markets on Friday for an early total of $43.4 million. By the end of the film’s “opening” weekend, it could have more globally than its $150 million production budget. (We have “opening” in quotation marks, because it did technically debut in Japan last weekend.)
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May 10th, 2019
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Pokémon: Detective Pikachu pulled in $5.7 million during its previews on Thursday. This is a strong start, but how strong depends on if the film is pulling in more families than Fanboys. If it is weighted heavily to the Fanboys, then it will have legs similar to Shazam!, for example, which would still be enough to match the tracking at just over $50 million for the weekend. If it is more heavily weighted to families, then it has a real shot at topping our $65 million prediction. If it has similar legs to How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, then it will beat that figure by a substantial margin. Legs will also depend on the film’s word-of-mouth and whether or not moviegoers liked the movie more than critics did. As always, we will know more this time tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come out.
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May 9th, 2019
There are four wide releases opening this weekend, but Pokémon: Detective Pikachu is the only one expected to have any impact at the box office. Even then, it would be a shock if it really challenged Avengers: Endgame for top spot. It will take a bit of luck for The Hustle and Poms to earn more than $10 million at the box office. Meanwhile, I would be a little surprised if Tolkien opened in the top five. Detective Pikachu and Endgame will be leading the way and trying to keep 2019’s winning streak going. In order to do that, they will need to top last year’s group of box office hits, which include Infinity War and ... Life of the Party. Seems doable. In fact, 2019 should have another stellar result in the year-over-year competition.
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May 1st, 2019
April got off to a fast start with Shazam! opening the first weekend of the month. Meanwhile, Avengers: Endgame ended the month with a record-breaking debut. Unfortunately for 2019, last April had a very similar result leaving 2019 behind 2018’s pace by over $400 million. Will May be able to turn things around? Last May, there were only two films that reached $200 million, Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story. Meanwhile, this May there are three such films, Detective Pikachu, Aladdin, and Godzilla: King of the Monsters. There are two points we need to make. Firstly, the only reason there are more potential $200 million hits this year is because May has five Fridays this year. Secondly, this May also has a lot better depth with films like John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum and Rocketman being potential $100 million hits. Even if we ignore the final weekend, May should do well enough to cut into 2018’s lead over 2019. It’s not going to be able to cut it in half, but it could do well enough to make box office analysts a little more positive about the year’s chances overall.
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April 1st, 2019
Comedy starring Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson opens May 10 ... Full Movie Details.
Two female scam artists, one low rent and the other high class, compete to swindle a naïve tech prodigy out of his fortune.
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