August 24th, 2016
There are not many major hits on this week’s list, but there are several releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes TV on DVD releases like Ash vs The Evil Dead: Season 1 (DVD or Blu-ray), as well as limited releases like Maggie’s Plan (DVD or Blu-ray). However, in the end I went with The Nice Guys on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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August 3rd, 2016
It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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May 10th, 2016
The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion.
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May 5th, 2016
According to Fandango, Captain America: Civil War has had the best prerelease sales of any comic book film and the second best overall, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It should come as no surprise that no other studio was willing to take a chance and go head-to-head with Civil War. However, it won't be the only film earning tens of millions of dollars this weekend. The Jungle Book will finally relinquish top spot, but I would be shocked if it didn't earn at least $20 million over the weekend. None of the rest of the box office will earn a fraction of that. Due to a misalignment in the calendar, the biggest new release from this weekend last year was Hot Pursuit, while The Avengers: Age of Ultron topped the chart with $77.75 million. Civil War should make more than that opening day.
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May 3rd, 2016
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This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens.
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April 30th, 2016
The Jungle Book easily remained in first place on Friday’s box office chart, earning $10.25 million. That is down just 38% from last Friday and if the weekend as the same internal multiplier as last time, then we are looking at a $49 million weekend haul. That’s a lot more than we predicted and would push the film’s running tally well over $250 million. However, this seems overly bullish—I would expect a weekend total of a few million less.
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April 28th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend.
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April 27th, 2016
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The Jungle Book earned nearly three times as much money as its nearest competition with $96.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $337.0 million internationally and $529.2 million worldwide. More impressively, it did this with no major market openings this past weekend. As for individual markets, the film became the biggest Hollywood film in India earning $28.8 million after three weeks of release. The previous record holder was Furious 7 at $23.4 million. The film's biggest weekend haul came from China, where it made $29.78 million over the weekend for a total of $99.03 million after just 11 days of release.
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April 27th, 2016
The winners of our Freeze Out contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Huntsman: Winter's War opening weekend were...
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April 26th, 2016
Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million.
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April 24th, 2016
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What in theory should have been a battle at the box office has turned into a rout this weekend, with The Jungle Book set to earn $60 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate, and The Huntsman: Winter’s War limping into second place with $20.1 million, per Universal.
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April 23rd, 2016
The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly.
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April 22nd, 2016
The Huntsman: Winter's War earned $1 million during its previews last night. This is not a bad result for this time of year, but it is a mere fraction of the $4.2 million The Jungle Book brought in last week. Assuming these numbers are correct, the film is on pace to earn $20 million to $25 million during its opening weekend. However, I think the lower end is more likely, because its reviews are going to hurt the word-of-mouth.
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April 21st, 2016
It's a bad week for new releases, as The Jungle Book is widely expected to dominate the box office. The only truly wide release is The Huntsman: Winter's War, but its reviews are simply terrible. There are also three films opening in select theaters and one of them should earn a spot in the top ten. They only need a little more than $1 million to do so. This weekend last year, the only true wide release was The Age of Adaline, which opened with $13 million on its way to becoming a midlevel hit. The Huntsman could double that opening, but it won't have the same legs.
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April 21st, 2016
The Jungle Book roared to first place with $136.1 million in 49 markets for very early totals of $187.4 million internationally and $290.7 million worldwide. This includes a first-place, $49.26 million opening in China. It also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $14.80 million in 594 theaters. It also opened in first place in France ($7,99 million on 653 screens) and Germany ($5.13 million on 934). These openings are great, but not as great as its domestic debut. Then again, its domestic debut was stunning.
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April 20th, 2016
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The winners of our Animal Instinct contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Jungle Book opening weekend were...
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April 15th, 2016
The Huntsman: Winter's War is the only truly wide release coming out next weekend, so it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Huntsman: Winter's War.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, maybe.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, potentially.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.
The Twist for the month of April is April Fools. One winner will get Me...Jane...and More Stories about Girl Power on DVD, plus another DVD aimed at a similar age group. One other will receive two randomly selected movies. The third will get whatever I put in the box marked "Misc." I'm not even going to look before I pull something out.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 15th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place with $31.92 million in 67 theaters for totals of $486.8 million internationally and $783.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will hit $800 million early this weekend, but it looks like $900 million might be out of reach. This is bad news for the studio, as the film reportedly needed to hit $1 billion to break even. On other other hand, if the other films in the D.C. Extended Universe are good, then each time one of them comes out, BvS will gets a small boost on the home market. Maybe that will be enough to break even eventually.
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April 1st, 2016
March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad.
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