Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Weekend estimates: Shang-Chi keeps the market afloat with $35.8-million second weekend

September 12th, 2021

Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings isn’t just the biggest game in town, it’s practically the only game in town at the moment when it comes to earning dollars at the box office. The Marvel movie will earn about $35.8 million this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning projection, a decline of 53% from its three-day opening (a good figure these days), and will stand at $145.6 million or so in total by the end of today, making it already the fourth-highest earner at the domestic box office in 2021 with plenty more to come. Malignant’s $5.57 million box office debut will only be enough for third place this weekend and raises further questions about Warner Bros.’ strategy of releasing films simultaneously on HBO Max. More...

Weekend predictions: F9 eyeing a $70-million opening

June 25th, 2021

There’s no question which film will top the box office this weekend. F9: The Fast Saga has long been anticipated as a landmark release as theaters reopen around North America, pandemic restrictions are lifted, and audiences regain their appetite for sitting in an enclosed space with hundreds of strangers. It doesn’t even have much competition—$6 million might be enough for it to win the weekend, and it already earned more than that in previews last night. The real question is how much it will bring in this weekend. Given its pedigree and buzz, the minimal benchmark for success is the $47.6 million earned by A Quiet Place: Part II on its Friday–Sunday opening weekend over the Memorial Day holiday. All the signs are that it will go much higher than that.

Here’s what our model has to say this morning… More...

Weekend estimates: Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard debuts with $11.675 million

June 20th, 2021

The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard will pull off a relatively easy win at the box office this weekend, with Lionsgate projecting it will earn $11.675 million from Friday to Sunday for a five-day opening a shade over $17 million. That’s a decent start for an action comedy, which our model says should be doing about $8 million at the moment, but it’s a shade behind our Friday prediction, which projected $13.6 million based on its solid $3.9 million opening day. All-in-all, that adds up to a glass-half-full/empty weekend at the box office. More...

Weekend estimates: A Quiet Place sets new 2021 benchmark with 3-day $48.38 million

May 30th, 2021

A Quiet Place: Part II is headed for a Memorial Day opening of close to $60 million, according to Paramount’s Sunday morning projections. The horror sequel is expected to pick up $48.38 million over three days, and $58 million over four, making it the biggest hit at the box office since theaters started reopening, handily beating Godzilla vs. Kong, which debuted with $32.2 million back in April. Cruella is well behind it in second place, but will top Tom and Jerry to become the best-performing post-pandemic family movie with a $21.3-million 3-day opening, and projected $26.5 million over four days.

Both films are performing well above our model’s predictions, which is an encouraging sign that audiences are returning to theaters. More...

Weekend estimates: Spiral repeats as market braces for Memorial Day

May 23rd, 2021

With no new films opening in over 1,500 theaters, this weekend was always going to be a modest one at the box office as the industry prepares for a make-or-break Memorial Day session. Spiral will repeat at the top of the chart with a projected $4.55 million, according to Lionsgate’s Sunday-morning projection. Its 48% decline from opening weekend is a bit better than expected, and several other films are also holding on well, which means the weekend as a whole looks more solid than feared. It’s still fair to say that A Quiet Place: Part II and Cruella will face virtually no competition when they open this coming weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Wrath of Man posts solid $8.1 million opening

May 9th, 2021

Wrath of Man will pull off an easy win at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday morning’s projection from United Artists. It’s easily outperforming our model’s prediction with $8.1 million expected for the full weekend. Its strength probably had an adverse effect on the numbers for Demon Slayer, Mortal Kombat, and Godzilla vs. Kong, all of which failed to live up to expectations. With Here Today also struggling, we’re looking at a slightly down week at the box office. More...

Weekend estimates: Demon Slayer projected to top the chart, but joins Mortal Kombat in a steep second-week decline

May 2nd, 2021

Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugan Train and Mortal Kombat are both experiencing precipitous declines at the box office this weekend after openings that significantly outperformed expectations. FUNimation is claiming a win for the weekend with a projected $6.421 million for Demon Slayer, but Mortal Kombat is expected to bring in $6.235 million, according to Warner Bros.. That’s a rounding error away, and the performance of each film today will determine who comes out on top when the final numbers are tallied. More...

Weekend predictions: Demon Slayer is a slight favorite to win the weekend

April 30th, 2021

After last weekend’s fireworks, business will be much quieter at the box office this time around, with horror movie Separation the only new wide release, and the winner of the weekend almost certainly down to which of Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train falls the least from their strong opening weekends. Our model thinks that Separation will find a place in the top six, but it’ll be well behind the reigning champions. Demon Slayer is marginally favored to top the chart in its second weekend, but the race will be close. More...

Weekend estimates: Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer knock it out the park

April 25th, 2021

After a few pleasant surprises in recent months, this looks like the weekend that the theatrical business has been looking for. Not only is Mortal Kombat beating expectations with a weekend projected to hit $22.5 million, per Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning numbers, but Demon Slayer The Movie: Mugen Train is headed for the second-best opening for an anime movie ever, behind 1999’s Pokemon: The First Movie, with a projected $19.5 million. What’s more, both films are R-rated, meaning that they firmly fall outside the family-film space that has been the brightest spot in the market recently. More...

Weekend predictions: Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer go head to head

April 23rd, 2021

This weekend is shaping up to be a real David and Goliath battle, with indie distributor FUNimation going up against the might of Warner Bros., and looking likely to come out with their heads held high, even if a weekend win looks out of reach. More...

Weekend estimates: Godzilla vs. Kong leads again in spite of steep decline

April 18th, 2021

Another slightly disappointing result for Godzilla vs. Kong makes this a weekend where the theatrical market is treading water again. The top six will generate 12% less revenue than our model predicted, which is safely within its margin of error, and doesn’t really indicate any new weakness. But their combined box office will be 32% down from last weekend thanks to the lack of major new releases. More...

Weekend predictions: Godzilla vs. Kong looking for another weekend over $10 million

April 16th, 2021

With no new wide releases and an already formidable lead at the box office, Godzilla vs. Kong is about as certain a winner in theaters this weekend as it’s possible to be. The main question is how much it will decline this weekend after dropping 57% in its second outing. Our model thinks the benchmark figure for the film will be around $10 million this weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Godzilla vs. Kong still number one as Voyagers disappoints

April 11th, 2021

After last weekend’s relatively excellent opening for Godzilla vs. Kong, the theatrical market is treading water this time around, based on the studios’ Sunday morning estimates. GvK itself is performing a little worse than expected, although not terribly considering its coming off the biggest weekend of the pandemic. Voyagers will earn a disappointing $1.35 million opening, and the returning films are something of a mixed bag. More...

Weekend predictions: Voyagers won’t trouble Godzilla vs. Kong

April 9th, 2021

There will be no prizes for predicting the winner at the box office this weekend, but the race for second place looks as though it’ll be close, with three returning films—Nobody, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Unholy—and debutant Voyagers all looking like they have a shot. Here’s what our model thinks going into the weekend… More...

Weekend estimates: Godzilla vs. Kong delivers monster* $32.2-million weekend

April 4th, 2021

Godzilla vs. Kong will earn $32.2 million over the Friday–Sunday weekend, and deliver a $48.5-million 5-day opening, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. The film will earn an additional $3 million in Canada from its PVOD release there, which the studio offered to allow Canadian audiences to see the film while around 80% of the Canadian market remains closed. It’s also showing on HBO Max in the US, but the studio hasn’t offered any numbers on its performance there. More...

Weekend predictions: Godzilla vs. Kong could top $30 million this weekend

April 2nd, 2021

Godzilla vs. Kong has stormed out the gate over the past two days, at least by pandemic standards. Its $9.6-million opening day was the best single day by a film in the past year, and it didn’t drop by all that much yesterday, posting $6.7 million. That puts it on track for easily the biggest weekend box office for a film since theaters started reopening. Predicting how much it will make is complicated by its unusual release pattern—opening on Wednesday in 2,409 theaters and expanding to 3,064 theaters today—and by the fact that, well, there’s still a pandemic on. More...

Weekend estimates: Nobody maintains market momentum

March 28th, 2021

An excellent opening for Nobody is more than making up for sluggish results for returning films this weekend and keeps the market recovery on course. More or less. More...

Weekend predictions: Nobody’s business

March 26th, 2021

Action thriller Nobody rounds out March with a rollout in 2,460 theaters and its sights firmly set on the top of the box office chart. If the domestic box office is recovering at the pace we hope, it should achieve that goal, but our model’s figures suggest its victory isn’t assured. More...

Godzilla vs. Kong trailer

January 25th, 2021

Monster action movie starring Godzilla and King Kong comes to theaters and HBO Max on March 26 ... Full Movie Details.

Kong and his protectors undertake a perilous journey to find his true home, and with them is Jia, a young orphaned girl with whom he has formed a unique and powerful bond. But they unexpectedly find themselves in the path of an enraged Godzilla, cutting a swath of destruction across the globe. The epic clash between the two titans—instigated by unseen forces—is only the beginning of the mystery that lies deep within the core of the Earth. More...