Weekend predictions: Godzilla vs. Kong looking for another weekend over $10 million

April 16, 2021

With no new wide releases and an already formidable lead at the box office, Godzilla vs. Kong is about as certain a winner in theaters this weekend as it’s possible to be. The main question is how much it will decline this weekend after dropping 57% in its second outing. Our model thinks the benchmark figure for the film will be around $10 million this weekend.

In fact, the model is expecting to see a relatively modest decline of 20% in GvK’s third weekend, assuming the films plays in around 3,100 theaters. Warner Bros. hasn’t been reporting theater counts, so we are having to predict those as well, which adds to the uncertainty. Generally, returning films are picking up a few extra theaters this weekend as more locations open (Regal reportedly has added more venues, for example), so Godzilla should hold fairly steady from that perspective. If it does lose theaters, and doesn’t quite hit the mark with new theatergoers and returning customers, then a weekend of around $10 million would be a decent showing. Anything under that would be a mild cause for concern that the market isn’t growing at the moment.

Overall though, I’d recommend looking at the performance of all the returning films, and especially the combined performance for the top six. Our target total of $18.641 million is the benchmark for the weekend as a whole. Anything higher than that would be good news, regardless of whether it comes from a stronger-than-expected second weekend from Voyagers, continued surprising strength for The Unholy, slightly better than expected performances from all the films, or some other combination of results.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Godzilla vs. Kong, Nobody, Voyagers, Raya and the Last Dragon, The Unholy