May 29th, 2016
It's a big week for first-run releases with four such films coming out. However, none of them are top-notch releases. Race is the best, but even then it is only worth a rental. Sadly, none of the limited releases, TV on DVD releases, catalog releases, etc. are really big releases either. Hello, My Name is Doris is a great movie, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week. I'm going with Veggie Tales: And Now It's Time for Silly Songs with Larry: The Complete Collection on DVD as the Pick of the Week. It really is a slow week for new releases.
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May 17th, 2016
The Deadpool Blu-ray arrived last Tuesday, which is par for course for Fox, as their screeners always seem to arrive as late as possible while still technically not being late. There are updates below with the extras. On a side note, the film is so good, I was tempted to make it the Pick of the Week for the second week in a row. However, in the end I went with Dark Passage, a classic Film Noir with a famous hook. The Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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March 17th, 2016
Zootopia rose to first place with $83.1 million in 45 markets over the weekend for totals of $288.7 million internationally and $432.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market was China, where it grew to $59.44 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $112.83 million. It became only the second animated film to earn $100 million in China and should top Kung Fu Panda 3's record-breaking run of $151.74 million. The film opens in Brazil this weekend and the U.K. next weekend, so its run is far from over.
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March 10th, 2016
It's a really bad week for international numbers, but not because the box office numbers are low. Ip Man 3 reportedly opened in first place with $75.0 million in three markets over the weekend for a total of $76.5 million. This includes $71.28 million in its native China. I say "reportedly" because this week this story broke. If this is true, then we will have to doubt any box office number coming out of China. This is a mess. Chinese films regularly reach the top five on the international chart, so if we can't trust the official reports, it makes these figures nearly useless.
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March 8th, 2016
As expected Zootopia dominated the weekend box office earning $75.06 million. This is half of what The Hunger Games opened with, but it was still the fifth Biggest March Opening. It also broke a couple of smaller records, but more on that down below. Second place went to London Has Fallen, but it was way, way back with just $21.64 million. This is terrible for a film that cost more than $100 million to make. Overall, the box office was $159 million. This is 41% more than last weekend and 77% more than the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 rose to just a hair under 10% at $1.97 billion to $1.79 billion. Granted, by this time in 2015, none of the year's $1 billion hits had been released, so things can change rapidly, but this is still a great start so far.
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March 4th, 2016
Judy Hopps and the rest of the cast of Zootopia got off to a great start earning $1.7 million during its Thursday previews. This doesn't sound like a lot compared to Deadpool, which earned more than $12 million just a few weeks ago. However, family films rarely do this well during previews. In fact, Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't even bother with previews. A good comparison is Home, which opened this month last year. That film earned $650,000 during its previews and its reviews were only mixed. As expected, Zootopia is no longer earning 100% positive reviews, but its Tomatometer Score is still a stunning 99% positive. This should help its word-of-mouth and a record-breaking run is still well within reach.
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March 4th, 2016
March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.
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March 3rd, 2016
Deadpool reached two milestones this weekend topping $300 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. Over the weekend, the film added $40.2 million in 74 markets to its running tally, which now sits at $324.1 million internationally and $609.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million internationally and $700 million worldwide. It is massively profitable, but I am worried the studio will double, or triple, the production budget of the sequel and then insist on more control over the process, because the stakes are higher.
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March 3rd, 2016
The winners of our Got to have Faith contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Gods of Egypt opening weekend were...
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February 29th, 2016
As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace.
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February 28th, 2016
This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).
All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend…
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February 27th, 2016
Deadpool will again earn first place at the box office, and with more than anticipated. It earned $8.95 million on Friday, which is 45% lower than last Friday's box office. If it maintains this run, then it will earn $31 million over the weekend for a total of $285 million. By this time next weekend, it will be over $300 million domestically. I don't think the studio was expecting $300 million worldwide when it gave the film the greenlight.
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February 26th, 2016
Gods of Egypt had the best showing among new releases from its Thursday previews; however, best is being used as a relative term, as it only managed $800,000. By comparison, 13 Hours pulled in $900,000 earlier this year. If the film’s reviews hurt its word of mouth, and I can’t imagine they won’t, then we are looking at a domestic total of about $40 million on a $140 million production budget. In fact, it will likely make less during its opening weekend than the $15.3 million reportedly spend on TV ads leading up to its release.
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February 26th, 2016
There are three wide releases looking to overtake Deadpool at the box office. I seriously doubt any of them will be able to do so. In fact, all three combined might not top Deadpool over the weekend. Gods of Egypt is by far the biggest costing $140 million, but it likely won't earn 10% of that over the weekend. Triple 9 is a rather generic action film that bombed in its debut in the U.K., which doesn't bode well for its run here. Finally, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good inspirational sports movie based on a real life story. Unfortunately, the sport in question is ski-jumping, which isn't popular enough to expect the movie will find an audience in theaters. This weekend last year, Focus was the top film, but Deadpool will likely beat it by $10 million over the weekend. It should be a relatively good week for 2016.
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February 25th, 2016
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The winners of our Race to the Top contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Race opening weekend were...
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February 19th, 2016
There are three wide releases next week, but Gods of Egypt is the overwhelming favorite. ... Well, to be more accurate, Deadpool is the overwhelming favorite, but Gods of Egypt should be the biggest hit of the three new releases. Therefore, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Gods of Egypt.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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