May 9th, 2021
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Wrath of Man will pull off an easy win at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday morning’s projection from United Artists. It’s easily outperforming our model’s prediction with $8.1 million expected for the full weekend. Its strength probably had an adverse effect on the numbers for Demon Slayer, Mortal Kombat, and Godzilla vs. Kong, all of which failed to live up to expectations. With Here Today also struggling, we’re looking at a slightly down week at the box office.
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May 7th, 2021
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Two new wide releases, Wrath of Man and Here Today, enter the fray this weekend, and will be hoping to capitalize on the rapidly-declining audiences for Mortal Kombat and Demon Slayer to take them to the top of the chart. While Here Today has the least overlap with the other films audience-wise, our model thinks Wrath of Man will fair the better of the two on debut.
Here’s what the model has to say about each movie…
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May 28th, 2020
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Sonic the Hedgehog was released on DVD / Blu-ray / 4K last week and that helped it climb into first place on the DEG Watched at Home chart. The film was already in fifth place last week on the strength of its digital releases, so it has had a very profitable run on the home market already.
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May 7th, 2020
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For the third week in a row, the top five films on the DEG Watched at Home Chart remain the same, although there are changes in the order from last week. Bad Boys for Life remained in first place. Meanwhile, Sony remained the only studio with more than one entry in the in the top five and tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 30th, 2020
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Bad Boys for Life rose to first place on this week’s DEG watched at home chart, thanks to its release on DVD and Blu-ray. This wasn’t Sony’s only entry in the in the top five. In fact, the studio was tied with Disney / Fox with five in the top twenty.
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April 21st, 2020
It’s a tough week for new releases on physical disc, although not because of the quality of the new releases. In fact, there are several new releases that I’m interested in. However, Amazon is having issues that’s making it hard to research this column. The biggest release on this week’s list is Bad Boys For Life, but I’m still waiting for the screener for that movie. Guy Ritchie’s The Gentlemen is also a welcome new major release.
The review DVD for Looking for Alaska did arrive, but not until Monday, so the review will have to wait. That said, it has some of the best reviews on this week’s list, and solid extras, which is enough to be the only real contender for Pick of the Week.
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March 18th, 2020
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The COVID-19 outbreak has been causing major closures of theater chains both domestically and internationally, which means this could be the last meaningful box office report for weeks, if not months. Bloodshot led the way with $12.47 million on 10,443 screens in 59 markets for an early international total of $14.59 million. The film is playing in most major markets, but it only cracked $1 million in three of them, led by Russia at $2.47 million on 1,665. Indonesia isn’t considered a major market, but the film earned $1.72 million on 868 screens there. The film topped the charts in both of those markets, but had to settle for second place in Mexico with $1.13 million on 1,510 screens in that market.
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March 12th, 2020
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Onward opened in first place internationally with just $28.0 million in 47 markets during its opening weekend. Worse still, the film has opened in most major markets and it wasn’t a serious hit in any of them. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it did open in first place with $4.45 million on 632 theaters. It also earned first place in France ($3.5 million) and in Mexico ($2.84 million). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Russia ($2.99 million on 1,631 screens) and Germany ($1.7 million).
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March 5th, 2020
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Sonic The Hedgehog is unstoppable on the international chart earning first place for the third weekend in a row. This past weekend, it pulled in $26.8 million in 62 markets for totals of $137.2 million internationally and $265.8 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings, but did open very well in both Indonesia and Poland at $2 million and $1.1 million respectively. The film has already earned enough to break even and it is quickly becoming one of Paramount’s biggest hits in the last few years.
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February 4th, 2020
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The Super Bowl turned out to be a good game, at least according to the score sheet. This perhaps hurt the box office over the weekend, as Bad Boys for Life fell a little faster than expected. That said, it still dominated the box office with a huge lead over the second place film, 1917. Meanwhile, the two new releases, Gretel and Hansel and The Rhythm Section, both bombed to varying degrees. The overall box office fell 33% from last weekend, hitting $81 million; however, an extreme decline like this is to be expected on Super Bowl weekend. More importantly, this is 11% higher than the same weekend last year and that helped 2020 extend its lead over 2019 to 8.9% / $77 million at $945 million to $868 million. A few more weeks like this and I’ll actually become optimistic about the year’s box office chances.
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February 2nd, 2020
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Bad Boys for Life is extending its run at the top of the chart the weekend with Sony projecting a total of $17.675 million as of Sunday morning. That’s down 48% from last weekend, which is another solid hold, and takes the film to the brink of $150 million at the domestic box office—it’s expected to have around $148 million by close of business. The studio is baking in a big 71% drop today thanks to competition with the Super Bowl, so it may end up doing just a little better than predicted.
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February 1st, 2020
If Friday’s estimates are any indication, then the weekend will be a little weaker than anticipated. Bad Boys for Life will easy lead the way after pulling in $5.19 million on Friday. Sony is projecting $17 million based on this result, which is a little lower than our $19 million to $20 million prediction, but still a great hold for a mainstream action film on Super Bowl weekend. This won’t be enough to get the movie to $150 million by the end of the weekend and it likely ends the film’s chances at $200 million domestically. That said, it is still going to be the biggest hit in the franchise by the end of Saturday, so there’s still plenty of reasons to celebrate.
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January 28th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life saved the box office this weekend earning $34.01 million, which was more than The Gentlemen and The Turning earned combined. Granted, the overall box office was still down 27% from last weekend, but it is a post-holiday weekend, so this decline was expected. More importantly, it was 23% higher than the same weekend last year and this helped 2020 continue its early winning streak. 2020 is now ahead of 2019’s early pace by 8.2% / $63 million at $828 million to $765 million. It is still way to early to make any projections for the end of the year, but any lead 2020 can build up now will help it during the slower stretches of the year.
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January 26th, 2020
Bad Boys for Life will remain in first place on the weekend chart with an estimated $34.0 million, which is down just 46% from the film’s opening weekend. This amazing hold not only beat predictions by a significant margin, it helped the film blow past $100 million yesterday. Its running tally will sit at $120.0 million at the end of the weekend, assuming the estimate holds. Internationally, the film held even better, earning $42 million on 12,700 screens in 58 markets for a total of $95 million so far. This includes a $4.7 million debut in Russia, as well as a $3.5 million hold in the U.K. The film is already ahead of the franchise average, both domestically and globally, while it is rapidly approaching first place in both. At this rate, not only will there be yet another sequel, I could see a spin-off happening as well.
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January 25th, 2020
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Bad Boys for Life remained in first place earning $8.93 million on Friday, down 62% from its opening Friday. This is significantly better than anticipated and it means the film could fall less than 50% during the full weekend. Regardless, the film will reach $100 million domestically tonight, becoming the first film released in 2020 to get to that milestone. Obviously it won’t be the last.
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January 24th, 2020
The Gentlemen started its box office run with $725,000 from Thursday’s previews. This is not a great number, especially when compared to Bad Boys for Life’s $6.36 million in previews last week; however, this film has a more mature target audience and that should help its legs over the rest of the weekend. I’m cautiously optimistic it will match our $12 million prediction with a little room to spare.
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January 23rd, 2020
It is a post-holiday weekend and the weekend before the Super Bowl. Needless to say, there are no prime releases coming out in theaters. The Gentlemen is the widest release of the week a should open in the top five, even if it doesn’t compete for top spot. The Turning is a low-budget horror movie, and we’ve already had one of those struggle at the box office this year. There’s little hope this one will be better. Finally, there’s The Last Full Measure, which is only opening nationwide, not even semi-wide. It’s not even going to make the top ten, so we will talk about that film with the other limited releases. This leaves Bad Boys for Life as the only real contender for first place this weekend. The question is more about how far it falls from last weekend. As for this weekend last year, we were in a similar situation with the two new releases, The Kid Who Would Be King and Serenity, failing to make any real impact, leaving Glass in first place for the second weekend in a row. The Upside was the only other film to earn more than $10 million that weekend, while this weekend we will have four, perhaps even five films above $10 million. 2020 should walk away with an easy win.
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January 1st, 2020
It’s the year 2020, the year where we find out how many times you can say, “Well, hindsight is 20/20.” before you get punched. On the positive side, while December wasn’t a great month, it was good enough to help 2019 end on a positive note, a positive note that should continue into January. There are no real potential monster hits coming out this month, but there are three films that have a real shot at $100 million domestically. These are, in alphabetical order, 1917, which will rely on Awards Season to get to the century mark. Bad Boys for Life will have a much, much easier time getting to $100 million, assuming people still care about the franchise 17 years later. Finally, Dolittle is looking like a disaster with a really troubled production; however, a $100 million run isn’t out of the question and if it can get there, it will at least save face. As for last January, Glass was the biggest hit of the month in terms of raw dollars, but The Upside was more impressive, as it is one the biggest hits in STX Entertainment’s history. We need two of the three potential $100 million hits to reach that mark to keep pace with last year, but we also have one more weekend to get there.
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October 18th, 2019
Guy Ritchie crime caper with an ensemble cast led by Matthew McConaughey, Henry Golding, and Hugh Grant opens January 24 ... Full Movie Details.
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