Weekend estimates: Croods still rule

December 13th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age continues to dominate at the box office (relatively speaking) this weekend, with Universal projecting a weekend box office of $3.01 million for a total of $24.26 million to date. Half Brothers is outperforming expectations in second place with a projected $490,000 sophomore weekend, down just 30% from its last outing. More...

Weekend predictions: have we reached rock bottom?

December 11th, 2020

In this week’s prediction column, we could focus on the wreckage of the current theatrical market, or look ahead to better times to come. Let’s look ahead, shall we?

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Weekend estimates: Croods leads another dismal weekend

December 6th, 2020

The Croods: A New Age will remain top at the box office this weekend, with Universal projecting a $4.4-million weekend as of Sunday morning. That will take the animated adventure past $20 million in total by the end of the day today. That fact pales in comparison to bad news regarding the continued decline in box office receipts. Returning films are falling 12% to 25% short of our model’s pre-weekend predictions. Part of that is down to the post-Thanksgiving decline that’s to be expected, but the continued toll of the pandemic is further dragging on spending. Perhaps the glimmer of good news is that more people are heeding experts’ advice and watching their movies at home. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky top at the box office in an ailing theatrical market

November 22nd, 2020

Freaky will remain top at the domestic box office this weekend in spite of a steep 66% decline from its opening weekend. Its win at the box office was practically guaranteed going into the weekend, with Vanguard, the only new wide release, playing in a more modest 1,375 theaters for indie distributor Gravitas Ventures (it is now projected to open with $400,000). Freaky’s steep decline was also expected, with our model predicting a $1.56 million weekend and a decline of 57%. The fact that it fell 20% short of that low figure is a measure of how audience attitudes are changing towards the theatrical experience as COVID-19 cases rise steeply across the United States. More...

Weekend predictions: Freaky set to stay top as theaters suffer from new pandemic shutdowns

November 20th, 2020

Vanguard will attempt to dislodge Freaky from its perch atop the domestic box office chart this weekend. Even though the new release stars Jackie Chan and earned around $45 million in its native China, our model thinks it’ll struggle to do so. But that skirmish is a sideshow this weekend as theaters are taking another blow from the surging pandemic and related lockdowns. More...

Weekend estimates: Freaky fails to deliver

November 15th, 2020

Going into the weekend, hopes were high that Freaky could post the kind box office numbers needed to show momentum in the theatrical market. Instead, it’s falling well short of our prediction, and numbers from the rest of the films in the top six, including a sharp 55% decline by last week’s winner Let Him Go, are also mostly disappointing. Instead of an increase in top six box office this weekend, we’re looking at a market that’s still flat, or even declining. What went wrong? More...

Weekend predictions: Freaky could be a pandemic-sized hit

November 13th, 2020

One of the curiosities since theaters started to reopen in the late Summer and early Fall is that the movies being released have not really targeted the demographic one would expect to be most likely to actually go to theaters: people in their teens and twenties. Instead, we’ve mostly seen thrillers, which tend to skew older, and family movies, which obviously skew younger. The most obvious exception to this rule is The New Mutants, which opened with $7 million back in August. This weekend, Freaky is looking to pull off a similar result. If it over-performs, it has a shot at beating Mutants, and having the second-best opening of the pandemic era. More...

Weekend estimates: Let Him Go tops expectations with $4 million opening

November 8th, 2020

Let Him Go is pulling off a comfortable win at the box office this weekend, according to studio projections released on Sunday morning. Its $4.1-million opening is the third-best result during the pandemic, behind Tenet’s $20.2 million and The New Mutants’s $7.0 million, and slightly ahead of Unhinged’s $4.0 million, assuming the final numbers hold on Monday. While this is undoubtedly good news, which pushes the total for the top six close to $10 million for the first time in a while, the evidence points towards this being more a case of one film connecting with audiences rather than a significant market improvement. More...

November preview: Universal keeps the industry alive

November 5th, 2020

The country might be distracted by a drawn-out election right now, but the movie business soldiers on this month, even though recovery from the pandemic looks as far away as ever. While theatrical grosses remain tiny, Universal is currently planning to try its luck with three new wide releases, two from the studio itself and one from its specialty division Focus Features.

At least, that’s their current plan. Two of the films seem certain to roll out, but their Thanksgiving release of The Croods: A New Age has to come with an asterisk attached. Perhaps this release will be an olive branch to theater operators after the studio caused controversy in March by pulling Trolls World Tour from theaters and sending it direct to PVOD. Universal is maybe taking this opportunity to look they’re supporting the theatrical business, and their case is made more convincing by the fact that every other major studio is sitting out November. Even looking beyond the end of the month, 20th Century Studios is the only other distributor that looks like it’ll have a wide release between now and Christmas, with Free Guy on December 11 and Death on the Nile on December 18. (Universal has another film, All My Life slated for December 4.)

If Universal sticks to its plans, and a couple of other expected changes (Coming 2 America going direct to Amazon Prime, and Wonder Woman 1984 getting pushed back again) happen, it’ll be the only studio offering real support to the theatrical business between now and the end of the year. Maybe everyone will let bygones be bygones, and we can at least point to that as a ray of hope for the industry going in Holiday Season. More...

Freaky Trailer

September 10th, 2020

Horror comedy starring Kathryn Newton and Vince Vaughn opens in theaters on November 13 ... Full Movie Details.

Seventeen-year-old Millie Kessler is just trying to survive the bloodthirsty halls of Blissfield High and the cruelty of the popular crowd. But when she becomes the newest target of The Butcher, her town’s infamous serial killer, her senior year becomes the least of her worries. When The Butcher’s mystical ancient dagger causes him and Millie to wake up in each other’s bodies, Millie learns that she has just 24 hours to get her body back before the switch becomes permanent and she’s trapped in the form of a middle-aged maniac forever. The only problem is she now looks like a towering psychopath who’s the target of a city-wide manhunt while The Butcher looks like her and has brought his appetite for carnage to Homecoming. With some help from her friends—ultra-woke Nyla, ultra-fabulous Joshua and her crush Booker—Millie races against the clock to reverse the curse while The Butcher discovers that having a female teen body is the perfect cover for a little Homecoming killing spree. More...