October 2nd, 2018
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It’s an off week on the home market with no blockbusters to deal with. There are two solid midlevel hits, The First Purge and Sicario: Day of the Soldado, but neither of those are Pick of the Week contenders. (Ant-Man and the Wasp is also coming out this week, but only on Video on Demand). There are some high quality picks: Leave No Trace, Three Identical Strangers, Molly, The Spiral Staircase, and Hyouka. It was a close race, but in the end, I went with Leave No Trace Blu-ray as Pick of the Week.
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September 19th, 2018
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This week, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, 3D Combo Pack, or 4K Combo Pack and not surprisingly, it is scaring away the competition and it is the only significant first-run release of the week. Unfortunately, it is not a Pick of the Week contender, so we have to look to smaller releases My Man Godfrey is a classic and Supergirl: Season Three is still fun. There are also some Anime titles worth considering, including Saga of Tanya the Evil: The Complete Series and Gosick: The Complete Series. It was close, but My Man Godfrey won in the end.
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August 16th, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians leads a group of three films, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews. It also opened with $5.01 million on Wednesday, so its already looking like a box office success. On the other hand, Mile 22 has the worst reviews of the week and its buzz is only mediocre. That said, its buzz is still louder than Alpha’s buzz is. On the other hand, Alpha’s reviews are good enough that if it doesn’t struggle too much during its opening weekend, then its word-of-mouth should help its legs. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $21.38 million. That’s probably more than any film opening this weekend will make. On the other hand, the only other film to earn more than $10 million last year was Annabelle: Creation, while we should have four films do the same this year. The depth should help 2018 earn an easy win.
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July 17th, 2018
The weekend wasn’t nearly as close as expected. Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation ran away at the box office, while fellow new release, Skyscraper, only managed third place. This did allow Ant-Man and the Wasp to earn second place during its second weekend of release. Overall, the box office fell 12% compared to last weekend, but it was 1.6% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, this is not a high enough margin of victory to compensate for ticket price inflation, but 2018 has such a large lead that even a small victory like this is more than enough to feel good about the overall box office. Speaking of large leads, 2018’s lead over 2017 remains impressive at $550 million or 8.9% at $6.72 billion to $6.17 billion.
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July 10th, 2018
The two biggest releases of the weekend couldn’t quite match expectations, while the two big holdovers weren’t able compensate, resulting in a rare loss for 2018. Ant-Man and the Wasp still had an excellent opening with $75.81 million over the weekend, the seventh-best opening weekend of the year. The First Purge started out well on Wednesday, but slipped below the pace needed to match predictions by the weekend. That said, the overall weekend haul was still impressive at $188 million, which is 5.8% higher than last weekend. Granted, it is 8.7% lower than the same weekend last year, but Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with $117.03 million, so this is still a good result. Furthermore, 2018 remains ahead of 2017 by a substantial amount: $570 million, or 9.6%, at $6.47 billion to $5.90 billion. If the year ended with a lead of $570 million, we would be very happy.
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July 8th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp did not have as good a Saturday as hoped, and this has left it with a projected $76.03 million over the weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. While, this is more or less in line with original predictions, it is lower than previews and Friday estimates suggested. Fortunately, with great reviews and an A minus from CinemaScore, it should have legs long enough to get to $200 million domestically, with a little help from the studio. This would be a little more than a 10% increase from the first Ant-Man. Internationally, the film opened with $85 million in 41 markets, including a monster opening in South Korea. The film managed $20.9 million debut there, including previews, which was 78% higher that the first film’s opening in that market. Overall, the film saw 45% growth internationally compared to just under 33% growth here.
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July 7th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp dominated the box office on Friday with $33.80 million. This is about $1 million less than we would have liked to have seen after its Thursday previews, but still above our earlier prediction. Its reviews are 86% positive, and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is good for a blockbuster, but I was expecting an A like the original Ant-Man earned and it is below average for the MCU.
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July 6th, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with $11.5 million during its midnight shows last night. That’s a huge increase from the $6.4 million the first Ant-Man earned during its previews. However, Ant-Man and the Wasp is a sequel, well, more of a sequel than Ant-Man was, so it very likely won’t have the same legs. Unfortunately, this is true of all of the best comparisons. Doctor Strange is the closest in terms of box office expectations, but it opened in November. Guardians of the Galaxy had a more similar release date, but its legs were unusually long and that would skew any calculation. Spider-Man: Homecoming opened this weekend last year, so it is an excellent comparison in that regard. It isn’t a direct sequel, but the character was introduced in Captain America: Civil War, so maybe it’s a little bit more of a sequel than the first Ant-Man was. If we assume the two films will have the same legs, then Ant-Man and the Wasp will open with about $87 million. This is better than our prediction and more than enough to be worth celebrating. Additionally, the film’s reviews have continued to improve and with a Tomatometer Score of 87% and an average score of 7 out of 10, it could have long legs over the weekend, at least when compared to most other similar releases.
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July 5th, 2018
It’s technically the July 4th Weekend, although July 4th was yesterday. This is a good weekend to release a film and Ant-Man and the Wasp is looking to take advantage of the holiday. Meanwhile, The First Purge already started its run with $2.5 million in previews. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom and Incredibles 2 will continue to be a major presence at the box office. This weekend last year, Spider-Man: Homecoming opened with $117.03 million. There’s no way Ant-Man and the Wasp is going to match that. It’s highly unlikely Ant-Man and the Wasp and The First Purge combined will match that. The depth this year is a little better, but I think 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully it will be close.
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July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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June 12th, 2018
Horror movie starring Y’Lan Noel opens July 4 ... Full Movie Details.
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