October 21st, 2015
As expected, The Avengers: Age of Ultron led the September 29th new releases earning an easy first place on the combined DVD and Blu-ray chart for October 4th. It sold 1.60 million units and generated $29.35 million in revenue. It also had an opening week Blu-ray share of 69%. That's simply fantastic. However, it wasn't the best first-week opening we've seen this fall, as it fell just behind Furious 7. On the other hand, Age of Ultron was a Friday release, so it had a shorter opening week. Next week we will compare the running tallies of the two films and that will likely give us a much better picture of where these two films will end up.
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September 29th, 2015
It is another week loaded with TV on DVD releases, including iZombie: Season One, which is one of the best new TV shows from last season. However, while that release is a Pick of the Week contender, the actual honor goes to Spy (DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack).
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June 16th, 2015
After disappointing weekend after disappointing weekend, I had become pessimistic about any film's chances of being a breakout success this summer. Jurassic World changed that. The film didn't just top expectations, it broke all-time records. Over the weekend, the film pulled in $208.81 million. That is the record for biggest single weekend and it helped take the overall weekend box office to an all-time high with $273.67 million. This is 106% more than last weekend; that's right, the weekend box office was more than double last week's result. Additionally, and more importantly, it was 46% higher than the same weekend last year. Jurassic World itself earned 12% more than all films combined this weekend last year.
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June 12th, 2015
Jurassic World is the only wide release this week and its box office potential is so high that it has scared away even the counter-programming. It isn't the only film playing in theaters this weekend, but it will very likely make more at the box office than the rest of them combined. Spy will be a distant second place and is hoping not to be crushed. If it can avoid falling 50%, it should have enough legs to reach the century mark. ... with a push from the studio. The only other film that is on track to earn more than $10 million over the weekend is San Andreas, which already crossed the $100 million mark. This weekend last year, two films opened wide, 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2. Neither film will match Jurassic World individually, but they might have the advantage if you combine their openings. Additionally, there will only be two $10 million films this weekend, while there were three last year. 2015 will win on top, but 2014 has better depth and I think 2015 will lose the year-over-year comparison... again.
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June 9th, 2015
None of the three new releases matched expectations and while the holdovers pulled their weight, it wasn't enough to help the overall box office. Spy didn't make it to $30 million during its opening weekend, but it came within a rounding error of that mark. Insidious Chapter 3 did very well compared to its production budget, but will likely be the weakest installment in the franchise. Meanwhile, if it weren't for its lower production budget, Entourage would be considered a bomb. Overall, the box office fell 4.3% from last weekend to $133 million. Worse still, the box office fell 18% from last year. Year-to-date, the overall box office has pulled in $4.39 billion, which is 1.2% above 2014's pace.
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June 7th, 2015
Going into the weekend, any one of three films could conceivably win at the box office, with a fourth wide release having the potential to act as a spoiler by pulling away some of the audience from the others. In the event, the right film won, if one goes by the reviews, with Spy! pulling in $30 million to take the prize. That’s basically a par score for Melissa McCarthy, compared to Bridesmaids’ $26 million start, the $34.5 million debut of Identity Thief, The Heat’s $39 million, and Tammy’s $21.5 million. Paul Feig directed McCarthy in Bridesmaids, The Heat and now Spy!, so it’s a par score for him too.
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June 6th, 2015
Insidious Chapter 3 came out on top on Friday's box office chart, at least according to the estimates. Its opening day haul of $10.4 million put it just ahead of Spy’s Friday box office of $10.3 million. (When we get the final numbers, it is not unlikely that these two will switch places.) However, while Insidious won the battle on Friday, it won’t win the war for the weekend. Horror films have much weaker internal multipliers (internal multiplier is the weekend total divided by the Friday box office). For example, Insidious Chapter 2 had an opening day of $20.23 million on its way to a $40.27 million weekend. Its internal multiplier was just 1.99. That’s low, even for a horror film. Insidious Chapter 3 should have a better multiplier than that, thanks to its better reviews, but not by a huge margin. It certainly won’t keep pace with Spy. Even $25 million is likely out of question with $23 million being the most likely result after Friday’s results. This might not be enough to keep pace with San Andreas by the end of the weekend.
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June 5th, 2015
There are three wide releases this week, including one that is already in theaters. The biggest of these three releases is Spy, which is the latest film from Melissa McCarthy and Paul Feig. Both of their previous films crossed $100 million with ease. Insidious Chapter 3 is the third film in the Insidious franchise, but most think it won't be the best. Entourage started out ahead of expectations, but its reviews could cause a quick decline. This weekend last year, The Fault in Our Stars opened with nearly $50 million, while Maleficent landed in second place with more than $30 million. I don't think 2015 will be strong on top, but I think it will have better depth.
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June 1st, 2015
May turned out to be softer than anticipated with The Avengers: Age of Ultron missing expectations by about $100 million. Additionally, only Pitch Perfect 2 really topped expectations. May 2015 kept pace with May of 2014, more or less. June doesn't have any films as strong as Age of Ultron, but there are two films that should have no trouble getting to $200 million. Those two films are Jurassic World and Inside Out and I'm not sure which one will turn out to be the biggest hit of the month. Last June, the biggest hit was Transformers: Age of Extinction, but both Jurassic World and Inside Out should top that film, albeit by small margins. On the other hand, last June had four other films that reached $100 million, while this time around only Spy! and Ted 2 have a real shot at that milestone. 2015 is stronger at the top, but has weaker depth. It will be interesting to see if 2015 will keep pace with 2014 over the course of the full month.
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May 28th, 2015
Next week is the first week of June and there are three films opening wide: Entourage, Insidious: Chapter 3, and Spy! There's a chance none of these films will finish with $100 million at the box office, but Spy! has the best shot at that milestone. As such, it is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Spy!.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize. Because The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water is coming out on 3D Blu-ray this Tuesday (Look for our review coming out over the weekend.) our Frankenprizes will feature SpongeBob SquarePants releases, as well as other similar kids DVDs. Its a great prize to win just as school ends.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a SpongeBob Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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