March 2nd, 2014
The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards.
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March 2nd, 2014
Independent Spirit Award handed out the hardware last night and the big winner was 12 Years a Slave, which picked up five of the seven awards it was nominated for.
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February 25th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This race is twice as competitive as the Best Adapted Screenplay, by that I mean it is a two-way race for the Oscar and not a runaway race.
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February 20th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, finishing with Best Lead Actress. Unlike last year, this year the race is far more competitive in nearly all of the of the four acting categories this year. The person seen as the favorite has switched, more than once, and at the moment, I'm not sure who is going to win.
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February 18th, 2014
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress, which is again not a very competitive category this year. I'm not saying it is impossible for upset to happen here, but it is very, very unlikely. (On a side note, except for changing the links and using another poster, this is an exact cut and paste from last year. This category is slightly more competitive that last year, but not by enough to matter.)
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January 20th, 2014
The home market picks up steam this week, sort of. We are starting to get some of the Awards Season hopefuls coming out, which is great news for fans of great movies. However, there's not a lot of depth to go with the award-worthy movies. The two films that were the main contenders for Pick of the Week were Captain Phillips on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and In a World... on DVD or Blu-ray. It was a close decision, but in the end, I went with In a World...
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January 19th, 2014
SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite.
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January 16th, 2014
The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises.
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January 13th, 2014
Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was.
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January 5th, 2014
WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year.
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December 14th, 2013
Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces.
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December 14th, 2013
SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out.
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November 28th, 2013
Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations.
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October 2nd, 2013
There were only two films to reach the $10,000 mark on the Per Theater Chart, and they were practically tied. Muscle Shoals led the way with $13,901 in its lone theater, while Atharintiki Daaredi earned an average of $13,393 in 112 theaters.
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September 11th, 2013
The buzz surrounding Salinger helped it earn first place on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $21,739 in four theaters. However, given its reviews, I don't think it will last long. Instructions Not Included remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $11,366 in more than 700 theaters. It could still expand further, given its per theater average.
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September 4th, 2013
It was a very lop-sided week on the per theater chart with a couple of films in the $10,000 club, but the rest of the new limited releases, and a couple of new wide releases, were floating around, or below, the Mendoza Line. Instructions Not Included was the best with an average of $22,547 in 348 theaters. Stunning. This result is simply stunning. Afternoon Delight was next with an average of $13,676 in two theaters. Neither film earned good reviews, so it will be interesting to see if either can capitalize on this start.
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August 28th, 2013
The Grandmaster was top film on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $18,945 in seven theaters. I thought Short Term 12 would win, but it finished in second place with an average of $14,052 in four. With reviews that are nearly unanimously positive, it will likely have very strong legs.
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August 25th, 2013
Lee Daniels' The Butler will enjoy a second weekend atop the box office chart thanks in part to a good hold, at 31% down from last weekend, but also because of a major misfire for Mortal Instruments: City of Bones on its opening weekend. The fantasy adventure will only muster about $9.3 million Friday-Sunday for $14.05 million after five days in release -- a big disappointment for a film that reportedly cost $60 million to produce. International markets will make up some of the gap, and a sequel is still said to be in the works, but North America won't contribute much if anything to the coffers after marketing costs are taken into account. The rest of the chart has some bright spots though.
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August 21st, 2013
Space Station remained in first place on the per theater chart, again with $30,602. The film has made $2 million so far this year and it seems likely it will last long enough to get to $100 million in total, eventually.
You Will Be My Son was next with $15,301 in one theater. Surprisingly
Austenland made the $10,000 club. Given its
reviews and its
genre, earning its per theater average of $10,166 in four theaters is surprisingly high.
Blue Jasmine rounded out the $10,000 club with $10,005. It is already playing in 229 theaters and it will expand more.
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August 18th, 2013
If it can move Summer forward to the first week in May, perhaps Hollywood can also move Awards Season forward to mid-August. That's certainly the feeling one gets from looking at the varying fortunes of this weekend's openers. Summer standards Paranoia and Kick-Ass 2 have both fallen by the wayside (with a dismal $3.5 million opening in the first case and a disappointing $13.6 million debut in the latter). Jobs, which was made with awards in mind, has misfired with a $6.7 million start. But one film has risen above the rest on the basis of a compelling story and some high-class acting. Lee Daniels' The Butler will top the chart this weekend with around $25 million, according to Weinstein Co.'s Sunday estimate. That's the first film from the distributor to top the chart since Inglourious Basterds did this weekend in 2009. That film also had Oscar aspirations, and The Butler might well follow a similar course in Awards Season: some impressive nominations but ultimately not top honors.
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August 15th, 2013
IMAX movies have incredible legs and can bounce back in the $10,000 club years and years after their first release. Space Station jumped into first place with an average of $30,602 in one theater. In a World was the best new release with an average of $23,514 in three theaters. It is going to expand and we will have a contest starting on Friday to celebrate. Snake and Mongoose was close behind with $20,254 in its lone theater. Blue Jasmine continues to expand and it is now playing in 119 theaters. However, its average remains very strong at $19,709 and it will undoubtedly continue to expand. The Spectacular Now expanded from 4 to 19 theaters, while its average fell to $14,045. This is still strong enough to suggest further expansion and it should reach its first major milestone shortly. Chennai Express broke records for a Bollywood film playing in 196 theaters, while its per theater average was $11,329. That's an incredible start.
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August 11th, 2013
The waning days of the Summer season are seeing a glut of films as distributors try to find one last hit. Four films opened in wide release this weekend and, even though they played to quite different demographics, they will ultimately all fall somewhat short of expectations (or, more accurately, hopes). Topping the pack will be Elysium, which is expected to earn $30.5 million by Sunday evening -- a solid enough performance, but not enough to make a serious dent in its $120 million production budget. Good legs and an impressive international run will be needed for this one to turn a profit. We're the Millers will land in second place for the weekend with about $26.5 million, but will arguably have had a better start, with $38 million earned in total since it opened on Wednesday (not to mention a much lower production cost). Planes will be third with $22.5 million or so, which is OK for a film that was originally destined for a direct-to-video release. The real bomb of the weekend is Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters, with $14.6 million expected Friday to Sunday and $23.5 million in total over five days.
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August 7th, 2013
The Spectacular Now debuted in first place on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $49,354 in four theaters. This result, plus its excellent reviews, suggests it will have long legs in limited release. Last week's number one film, Blue Jasmine, slipped to second place with an average of $37,174, but it is now playing in 50 theaters, which is an amazing result. Space Station popped back into the $10,000 with an average of $15,352. It has pulled in $88 million after more than a decade of release. The Canyons earned $13,351 in its lone theater, proving there is no such thing as bad publicity. The reviews, on the other hand, were really bad and the film's only real hope is to become a cult classic. That might happen.
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August 4th, 2013
2 Guns continues Universal's very good year this weekend with an opening the studio is projecting at $27.36 million, as of Sunday morning. That's not record-breaking by any means, but it's certainly solid for a late-Summer action movie. The Smurfs 2, meanwhile, is a major disappointment for Sony, who were hoping for much more than $18.2 million, given that the first film in the franchises earned $35.6 million on debut. This is a film that will earn far more overseas than it does domestically though, so the studio will be looking more closely at opening numbers from around the world, where the film is reportedly doing much better.
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August 1st, 2013
Blue Jasmine earned top spot on the per theater chart, not just for the week, but for the year. Its per theater average was $102,011 in six theaters, topping the previous yearly best by Spring Breakers. Spring-Breakers finished its theatrical run with just over $14 million, which is a figure Blue Jasmine should top. The Act of Killing remained potent in second place with an average of $13,890 in three theaters. The overall box office leader, The Wolverine, was the final film in the $10,000 club with an average of $13,536.
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July 28th, 2013
The Wolverine will have a very solid, but far from spectacular debut this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $55 million total will give it the tenth-biggest weekend of the year, and the best for Fox, but it is falling well behind comparable films like World War Z (which opened with $66 million) and Star Trek Into Darkness ($70 million). Good reviews and lessened competition as the Summer season comes to a close will help it a bit, but it looks like $100 million and out for the franchise, unless its $86.1 million international debut turns into a $400 million global run.
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July 26th, 2013
There are a huge number of limited releases this week, but the vast majority of them are not earning strong enough reviews to suggest they will thrive in limited release. There are some, like Extracted, that are earning positive reviews, but there are so few reviews, that it is impossible to judge the movie. Drug War is earning the best reviews and it might find an audience. However, it is Blue Jasmine that has the best shot at earning some measure of mainstream success.
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