February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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February 24th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the final category: Best Picture. It is not a competitive category with an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then rest have maybe a combined 2% chance of winning.
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February 23rd, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Director. It is not a particularly competitive category with a favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 22nd, 2017
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, finishing with Best Adapted Screenplay. This is a harder category to judge, because the consensus favorite, Moonlight, was considered an original screenplay by nearly everyone else.
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February 19th, 2017
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The Writers Guild of America are the late major guild group to announce winners before the Oscars. We could see a small change in Oscar chances with a couple of winners tonight.
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February 17th, 2017
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Leading Actress, which is not competitive. There’s an overwhelming favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then everyone else.
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February 13th, 2017
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It is an interesting week with four top-notch releases. Unfortunately, two of those releases, Doctor Strange and Moonlight, are VOD only. This leaves just two contenders for Pick of the Week: Arrival and The Edge of Seventeen. Both are absolute must haves, but Arrival’s Blu-ray or 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack have far more extras and it is the Pick of the Week.
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February 12th, 2017
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were very few surprises to talk about. La La Land again won the most awards with five, while only two other films, Lion and Manchester by the Sea, earned more than one award. They each won two.
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January 29th, 2017
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An impressive decline of 34% in its second weekend and a crop of middling to poor performances by new releases will be enough to keep Split safely at the top of the box office chart this weekend. With Universal projecting $26.3 million for the weekend as of Sunday morning, Split is well ahead of the studio’s new release, A Dog’s Purpose, which will come in with around $18.4 million. Split will finish the weekend with around $78 million in total.
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January 25th, 2017
xXx: Return of Xander Cage easily took first place on the international chart with $50.5 million in 53 markets. The film’s biggest market was India, where it pulled in $7.4 million. Russia was second best with $5.39 million on 1,191 screens. The film had similar debuts in France ($3.1 million); Germany ($2.8 million); Mexico ($2.62 million); and Australia ($2.24 million on 331 screens). This film is clearly doing better internationally than it is domestically, but it will need about $200 million worldwide to have any chance of breaking even any time soon.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 12th, 2017
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The last of the Directors Guild of America nominations were announced and the Oscars are really shaping up to be a one-movie show. That movie is Deadpool. I’m joking of course, but it did get yet another nomination. At this point, it could earn a Best Picture Oscar nomination and I wouldn’t be surprised. The film that is dominating Awards Season is La La Land and frankly I’ve lost count of the number of nominations it has received.
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January 11th, 2017
The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) Most of the films on this list have already earned more than a few previous nominations. We appear to be settling into a predictable Awards Season.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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January 4th, 2017
The Writers Guild of America is the latest group nominees to be announced. There are a lot of categories that WGA hand out awards, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of nominees include several major Awards Season players, like Hidden Figures, but there are also some surprises.
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December 14th, 2016
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. This could mean the Oscar race will be a lot closer than in past years. This time around Manchester by the Sea led the way with four nominations.
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December 13th, 2016
As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.
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December 12th, 2016
The Golden Globes nominations were announced and we are starting to see a few names pop up over and over again. La La Land led the way with seven nominations, but Moonlight was right behind with six and Manchester by the Sea earned five. You will be hearing those three names over and over and over again this Awards Season.
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December 8th, 2016
There is only one wide release this week, Office Christmas Party. There are also two films expanding semi-wide, Miss Sloane and Nocturnal Animals. I doubt both of them will make the top ten, but I would be equally surprised if neither did. At the beginning of the month, I assumed Office Christmas Party would win this weekend, but it is looking like Moana has a shot at the threepeat. It could be a really close race with the two films changing positions on the daily chart. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, In the Heart of the Sea bombed earning just $11.05 million on a $100 million budget. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 earned first place with $11.41 million. Both Office Christmas Party and Moana will top that with ease. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them might also beat that. On the other hand, last year there were four films that earned more than $10 million, while this year there will be no more than 3. I still think 2016 will win, but it could be close.
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December 6th, 2016
As expected, Moana dominated the weekend box office chart with a $10 million lead over its nearest competitor earning $28.27 million. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them also did well with $18.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films to earn more than $10 million over the weekend and this left the overall box office down a massive 48% from last weekend to just $95 million. Worse still, this is 2.8% lower than the same weekend last year. I’m actually surprised it’s that close, because there were four films that earned more than $10 million last year, including the biggest new release, Krampus. 2016 was able to crack $10 billion before the weekend and has a very substantial lead at $10.12 billion to $9.66 billion for 2015.
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December 4th, 2016
The top of the box office chart remains a tale of two movies this weekend, with Moana maintaining an impressive lead over Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, but both movies doing very nicely heading into the Christmas season. Moana tops the chart again this weekend with $28.4 million, for a total of $119.9 million at the end of the weekend. By way of comparison, Frozen had earned $134.3 million at this point in its run, but fell a slightly larger 53% from Thanksgiving, compared to Moana’s 50% decline. The next few weeks should be very lucrative for the animated adventure, which is likely to sail past $300 million at the domestic box office.
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December 1st, 2016
December usually starts on a really soft note, because the weekend after Thanksgiving is usually a terrible weekend. This time around, the wide release of the week is Incarnate, which is opening in 1,737 theaters and is expected to struggle to reach the top ten. That leaves Moana with an easy route to first place. This weekend last year, Krampus opened in second place with $16.29 million. Incarnate will only earn a fraction of that. On the other hand, the number one film was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2, which earned $18.86 million during the weekend and Moana should easily beat that. I don’t think 2016 will come out ahead, but it also shouldn’t be a disaster either.
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November 29th, 2016
As expected, Moana earned first place over the Thanksgiving weekend and became the biggest true opener in the holiday’s history. (Technically Frozen opened in limited release the week before and as we learned from Futurama, technically correct is the best kind of correct.) The film was a little more front-loaded than expected and nearly matched our predictions. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them held on better than predicted and that one-two punch helped the overall box office grow 17% from last weekend to $184 million, over the three-day portion of the weekend. This is nearly identical to the same weekend last year; in fact, it was up by less than 1%. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.99 billion. 2016 will soon become the eighth year in a row to reach the $10 billion milestone. This is 5.0% / $470 million above last year’s pace. I’ve been saying for a while that we needed to enter December with a $300 million advantage over 2015 in order to come out ahead at the end of the year, so this is great news.
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November 27th, 2016
Disney’s domination of Thanksgiving weekend will continue in 2016, with Moana expected to post $55.5 million for the three-day weekend and $81.1 million in total, making it either the second-best or best Thanksgiving opener of all time, depending on what you consider an “opener.” Disney is claiming second place for Moana behind Frozen, which had a $67.4 million 3-day weekend, and $93.6 million 5-day weekend back in 2013. That film had already opened in a single theater the weekend before, so if we want to split hairs, it technically wasn’t opening that weekend. Either way you look at it, it’s a great start for Moana, and another handsome win for Disney. The studio can now claim the top six 5-day Thanksgiving debuts and and the top eight 3-day Thanksgiving openings of all time.
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November 26th, 2016
Moana remained the dominant film at the box office on Friday, pulling in $21.86 million. This is lower than the $23 million we were hoping for yesterday, but it still puts the film on pace to break the record for the biggest Thanksgiving opening, currently held by Tangled at $48.77 million / $68.71 million. (Frozen opened in limited release the week before Thanksgiving, so it technically doesn’t hold the record for best Thanksgiving opening, although it does have the best Thanksgiving weekend for an animated film with $67.4 million / $93.6 million.) Moana should earn just under $55 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day total of just over $80 million. This would put the film in a tie with Toy Story 2 for sixth place on the list of all-time best Thanksgiving weekends, depending on how well it does for the rest of the weekend. Furthermore, its 98% positive reviews and its A rating from CinemaScore suggest long legs going forward. It should still be in a lot of theaters on Christmas day.
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November 22nd, 2016
As expected, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them dominated the box office earning nearly as much as the rest of the films combined. However, it was unexpectedly weak earning just $74.40 million. In fact, every film we talked about on Thursday’s predictions underperformed and the overall box office was down to $158 million. Granted, “down” in this case is only off by 0.1%, but considering we were expecting significant growth, even a little drop is distressing. Worse still, the box office is off by 8.9% from this weekend last year. Again, we were expecting growth in the year-over-year comparison, so a drop this big really hurts. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $9.49 billion, which is 5.9% or $540 million better than last year’s pace. That said, I wouldn’t panic, as Moana should help the box office bounce back this weekend.
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November 17th, 2016
At the beginning of the month, we thought there would be four wide releases / expansions this week. However, it turns out there will be just one, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. The lack of wide releases should help it at the box office and there is a small chance it could top $100 million over the next three days. While there are no other wide releases, there are a few films opening or expanding semi-wide. Of these, The Edge of Seventeen is the only one with a realistic shot at the top five. It is earning the best reviews of the week and did earn a lot of film festival buzz, so that should help. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk had an amazing opening in limited release last weekend, but it will likely struggle as it expands into just over 1,000 theaters this weekend. Finally there’s Bleed for This, which is expected to barely make the top ten. This weekend last year, the final installment of the Hunger Games franchise opened with just over $100 million. There’s a slim chance Fantastic Beasts will do the same. Even if it doesn’t, the depth this year is much better than last year and that should help 2016 win in the year-over-year comparison.
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November 16th, 2016
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Doctor Strange remained in first place with $60.2 million in 53 markets over the weekend for totals of $339.6 million internationally and $492.6 million worldwide. This puts the film ahead of the lifetime total of Thor and into 11th place in the MCU. It will be at least a couple of spots higher by this time next week. The film had a stronger than expected hold in China down $22.54 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $83.22 million. It also remained in first place in South Korea with $4.35 million on 951 screens over the weekend for a total of $36.22 million after three weeks of release. Up next for the film is Argentina on the 24th, while it doesn’t end its run until next year when it opens in Japan.
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November 16th, 2016
The winners of our Arrive on Time contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Arrival opening weekend were...
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November 16th, 2016
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk earned first place on the theater average chart over the weekend earning an average of $57,065 in two theaters. That’s the good news. The bad news is its reviews suggest poor word of mouth and difficulty expanding wide this coming weekend. Elle opened in second place with an average of $25,467, also in two theaters. Loving remained in the $10,000 club for the second weekend with an average of $11,149 in 46 theaters. It still has room to grow. Doctor Strange was right behind with an average of $11,069. The final film in the $10,000 was the biggest new release of the week, Arrival, which earned an average of $10,390.
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November 15th, 2016
The weekend box office was better than anticipated, thanks mostly to Remembrance Day. Doctor Strange fell less than 50%, which is stunning for a big blockbuster like this. Trolls held on even better and Arrival had a surprisingly strong opening weekend. Granted, the overall box office still dropped by 18% to $158 million, but some drop-off is unavoidable the weekend after a blockbuster release. This was 46% higher than the same weekend last year and that is a lot more important. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $9.49 billion, putting it 5.7% or $510 million ahead of last year’s pace.
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November 13th, 2016
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While Doctor Strange and Trolls aren’t really being threatened at the top of the chart this weekend, a few healthy new releases are giving Veterans Day weekend a timely boost at the box office. Arrival is the stand-out performer in wide release, with $24 million from 2,317 theaters and an average over $10,000. The sci-fi drama is a critical darling, but is having a harder time with general audiences who might be expecting something with a few more explosions and laser battles, and its CinemaScore is a B. Its potential long-term performance is a therefore a little hard to gauge at this point, but it would be very surprising for it not to pick up a few more theaters, and it might be decent counter-programming to the explosions and laser battles promised by several other films coming up in the next few weeks.
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November 12th, 2016
Doctor Strange held on better than expected to earn $14.92 million on Friday. This was down just 54% compared to its opening Friday. This is partially due to its reviews, but also due to Veterans Day landing on a Friday. It won’t bounce back as much as other sophomore films do in this case, but even if it has the exact same internal multiplier as it did last weekend, it will pull in $39 million this weekend and match our prediction. It will likely top $40 million, maybe even hitting $42 million, if it is lucky.
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November 11th, 2016
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Arrival earned an impressive $1.45 million during its previews last night. This is a little more than the $1.4 million Gravity earned this time in 2013. Granted, midnight shows were not as ubiquitous as they are now, but I still think this is a positive sign. Its reviews should help its legs and while our prediction was a little more bullish than most, I’m a little more confident now.
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November 10th, 2016
There are a trio of new releases coming out this week, but none of them are expected to challenge for top spot. Arrival is earning stellar reviews, but it is also being released by Paramount and they’ve had a terrible year. Almost Christmas is a Christmas movie aimed at African-Americans. It should do well enough to become a financial success, but it won’t be a major player at the box office. Then there’s Shut In, which is barely opening wide and will very likely miss the top five. It might miss the Mendoza Line. This will leave Doctor Strange with an easy first place, while Trolls should remain in second. This weekend last year, the new releases were pitiful. The best earned less than $10 million. If 2016 doesn’t win in the year-over-year comparison, then we are in serious trouble.
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November 9th, 2016
The winners of our Be Presidential contest contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for United States Presidential election were...
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November 4th, 2016
There are three widish releases next week, but none of them are opening at a saturation level theater count. In fact, none of them are coming close. Arrival will very likely be the biggest of the three new releases, but it will fall behind Doctor Strange’s sophomore stint. Its estimated theater count is so small it might even open below Trolls. Almost Christmas is looking to become a solid midlevel hit, while Shut In is just praying for a spot in the top five. Because Arrival is expected to do the best, it is the target film in this week’s Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Arrival.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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November 1st, 2016
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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September 5th, 2016
Sci-fi thriller starring Amy Adams, directed by Denis Villeneuve opens November 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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