February 26th, 2017
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It’s Oscar night and we were live blogging the show. Read on the the highlights of what turned out to be a crazy night.
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February 26th, 2017
It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between.
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February 12th, 2017
The BAFTA winners were announced on Sunday and there were very few surprises to talk about. La La Land again won the most awards with five, while only two other films, Lion and Manchester by the Sea, earned more than one award. They each won two.
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January 24th, 2017
The Oscar nominations were announced starting at 5:18 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, it’s a boring year for nominations with very few surprises worth talking about, especially in the biggest categories. Leading the way was La La Land with 14 nominations, tying the record.
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January 11th, 2017
The BAFTA nominations were announced and it should come as no surprise what film lead the way... La La Land with 11 nominations, Nocturnal Animals and Arrival are tied for second with nine nominations a piece.
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November 15th, 2016
There are several prime releases on this week’s Home Market report. This includes the biggest film of the week, Finding Dory, which was previously named Pick of the Week. I suspect a lot of people reading this have pre-ordered the Blu-ray already. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Game of Thrones: Season Six and Rush: Time Stands Still on Blu-ray. I’m awarding Pick of the Week to Game of Thrones, while Rush gets Puck of the Week, for best Canadian release.
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August 29th, 2016
We are in the heart of TV on DVD season with a dozen such releases on this week’s list. Unfortunately, while there are a few that are worth picking up, none of them have the extras needed to be Pick of the Week contenders. The biggest release of the week is The Jungle Book, which is one of the biggest hits of the year. I got a chance to review it, so you can compare my opinion to the critics. As for the best of the best, there weren’t a lot to choose from. In the end, I went with The Commitments, which is making its Blu-ray debut this week.
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August 28th, 2016
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The Jungle Book is the latest live-action remake of a classic Disney cartoon. The film is the third biggest domestic release of the year so far. (It just topped Deadpool this weekend.) It also earned 95% positive reviews. Is it truly one of the best films of 2016? Or am I going to be in the minority when it comes to this movie?
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August 24th, 2016
There are not many major hits on this week’s list, but there are several releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. This includes TV on DVD releases like Ash vs The Evil Dead: Season 1 (DVD or Blu-ray), as well as limited releases like Maggie’s Plan (DVD or Blu-ray). However, in the end I went with The Nice Guys on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
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July 6th, 2016
The Fourth of July weekend went very well as two of the three new releases beat expectations. However, none of them were able to top Finding Dory, which earned its third win in a row. The Legend of Tarzan was very close in second place, which surprised a lot of analysts, but there might be a logical reason for its success. The Purge: Election Year more than tripled its production budget during its opening three-day weekend, so there’s no chance the studio isn’t giddy over that. The only real disappointment was The BFG, which got lost in the crowd. The overall box office was up from last week, which is a pleasant surprise. Granted, it grew by just under 1.0% to $192 million over the three-day weekend. More importantly, it was 41% higher than the same three-day weekend last year. Add in Monday, and the year-to-date lead rose to $120 million or 2.2% at $5.71 billion to $5.58 billion.
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July 1st, 2016
The Purge: Election Year earned the best Thursday previews out of the three wide releases with $3.64 million last night. This is the best in the franchise, just beating the $3.44 million the first film managed and well ahead of the $2.64 million the second film pulled in. On the downside, the film's reviews have slipped to just 57% positive. That's still good, for this genre and it might be a bigger than expected hit.
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June 21st, 2016
In our prediction column, I said I wanted the top two films to earn a combined total of $150 million to $170 million. Finding Dory's and Central Intelligence's combined opening weekend was $170.60 million. The overall box office was 53% higher than last weekend at $233 million. However, this was still 6.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Finding Dory did do better than either Jurassic World or Inside Out individually, but couldn't compete with their combined totals. 2016 is still ahead of 2015, but its lead was cut by a third at $150 million or 3.1%. That said, 2016 hit $5 billion a week faster than 2015 did and its lead of $5.06 billion to $4.91 billion is still substantial.
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June 17th, 2016
Finding Dory. Finding Dory started its box office run by setting a Pixar record with $9.2 million at preview shows. This beats the old record of $4.0 million held by Toy Story 3. However, that film came out six years ago and midnight showings were not industry standard back then so it is hard to judge. On the other hand, the film also set the record for an animated film, which was previously set last year by Minions at $6.2 million. Finding Dory is also the biggest midnight hit for a family film so far this year, topping The Jungle Book, which earned $4.2 million. At this pace, a $100 million opening seems very likely and a record-breaking opening, for an animated film, is still the goal.
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May 28th, 2016
Memorial Day long weekend got off to an okay start on Friday with X-Men: Apocalypse dominating the chart. It pulled in $26.4 million. Two years ago, Days of Future Past opened with $35.51 million on its opening day. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Apocalypse will have a four-day haul of $82 million. This film’s reviews will make that number unlikely, but its CinemaScore is an A-, so a complete collapse is also unlikely. Look for an opening weekend of just under $80 million. This won't be enough to get to $200 million domestically, but it is enough to break even early in its home market run.
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May 27th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse started off the Memorial Day long weekend with $8.2 million in 3,565 theaters during its Thursday previews. This is well back from Captain America: Civil War or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both of which earned more than $25 million. However, it is better than Days of Future Past, which earned $8.1 million, so there's a chance it will cracked $100 million over the four-day weekend. I think the reviews will be a major hindrance in that goal, unless fans like it a whole lot more than critics did. This time tomorrow, we will have the opening day numbers, as well as its CinemaScore, so we will have a better grasp on its opening weekend run.
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May 26th, 2016
It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
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May 24th, 2016
While each film in the top five on this weekend's box office chart finished in the right place, none of them matched expectations, save for The Jungle Book, which earned fifth place. The Angry Birds Movie debuted on top of the chart with $38.16 million, which is an okay opening for a family film at this time of year and nothing more. Likewise, Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising struggled compared to its predecessor, but did well compared to its budget. The Nice Guys will need long legs to break even. The overall box office rose 4.5% from last weekend, reaching $137 million, but fell 11% from the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 shrank to 5.1% or $200 million at $4.14 billion to $3.94 billion. This is a very impressive figure, but might not be enough to keep 2016 in the lead throughout the rest of the year. Jurassic World came out last June and there's little hope any film this June will match it.
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May 19th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, all of which are aimed at different target audiences. The Angry Birds Movie is aimed at families and will likely be the biggest hit of the weekend. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising is an R-rated comedy that is hoping to avoid a Horrible Bosses 2 drop-off. Finally there's The Nice Guys, which is aiming for counter-programming success. If it tops $15 million over the weekend, it will be seen as a success. Captain America: Civil War will still be in the mix and could earn the threepeat, but could also fall to third place. This weekend last year, all five films in the top five earned at least $20 million. That won't happen this year. 2016 will lose, but it won't be a disaster in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 18th, 2016
Captain America: Civil War remained in top spot as it races towards $1 billion worldwide. Over the weekend, it added $84.2 million in 55 markets lifting its international total to $645.0 million, while its worldwide total hit $941.0 million. The film had no new openings this past weekend, but it pulled in $31.87 million in China for a total of $155.95 million after 11 days in that market. The film will top $1 billion by Friday, at the latest.
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May 17th, 2016
The weekend box office was weaker than predicted at the top, but stronger in the second and third spots. Captain America: Civil War led the way with $72.64 million. This was lower than expected, but still more than the rest of the films combined earned. Money Monster was better than expected with $14.79 million. Overall, the box office was down 45% from last weekend to $130 million, while it was down 29% from this weekend last year. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a massive $230 million or 6.2% at $3.97 billion to $3.73 billion. I was worried 2016 and 2015 would be in a virtual tie by now, so this is great news.
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May 15th, 2016
After recording the 5th-biggest opening weekend of all time last weekend, Captain America: Civil War will decline 59% this time around to $72.56 million, according to Disney’s Sunday projection. If that number holds, it will put Civil War 8th on the list of best second weekends, almost exactly tied with Iron Man 3. That comparative slip in the rankings isn’t of huge consequence, given that the film will sail past $300 million domestically on either Monday or Tuesday, and has already racked up $645 million worldwide, putting it on the brink of $1 billion worldwide a little over two weeks after its international rollout. The Marvel juggernaut continues to roll on.
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May 12th, 2016
There's not much mystery over what movie will come out on top of the box office this weekend. Captain America: Civil War will repeat as champion, as neither Money Monster nor The Darkness are expected to be box office hits. In fact, both of them combined will earn less in total than Civil War will make over the weekend. Unfortunately, this weekend last year had a one-two punch with Pitch Perfect 2 and Mad Max: Fury Road. Civil War will beat those two individually, but 2015's depth is going to be really hard to top. Fortunately, 2016 has such a lead so far that it can weather this storm.
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May 11th, 2016
Before Captain America: Civil War came out, it was estimated that the film would need to make more than $600 million worldwide to break even. It did so after just two weeks of release. This weekend, the film earned $220.0 million in 55 markets for totals of $496.6 million internationally and $675.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market this past weekend was China, where it pulled in $96.07 million, including Thursday's previews. South Korea was the strongest holdover earning $11.75 million on 1,771 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $52.63 million. At this pace, the film has likely already crossed $700 million worldwide, while $1 billion is an easy target for the weekend. Speaking of billions of dollars, Disney has cracked $3 billion worldwide in record time. The previous record was set last year by Universal.
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May 10th, 2016
The Curse of Great Expectations hit Captain America: Civil War, as it had a monster opening, but still missed even the low end of expectations at $179.14 million. This is the best opening for any film this year, so Disney should be more than happy with this result. Overall, the box office pulled in $237 million, which is 121% more than last weekend. Granted, it is the official start of summer, so an increase like that is to be expected. More importantly, it is 80% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if you compare this weekend to the start of summer last year, 2016 still comes out ahead, albeit by a much smaller margin of 1.8%. Year-to-date, 2016 padded its lead, which grew to 7.0% at $3.77 billion to $3.53 billion.
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May 8th, 2016
Another weekend, another triumph at the box office for Disney. After a hattrick of wins for The Jungle Book, the studio’s Captain America: Civil War will top the chart this weekend with a year’s-best $181.8 million, according to the studio’s weekend projection, released on Sunday morning. Our model projects that it will fall just short of $180 million, but either way it will set easily a new best weekend in 2016, beating the $166 million debut of Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, and record the fifth-best weekend of all time, landing in between The Avengers: Age of Ultron and Iron Man 3. The Marvel Cinematic Universe now claims four of the top six spots on the all-time list.
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May 5th, 2016
According to Fandango, Captain America: Civil War has had the best prerelease sales of any comic book film and the second best overall, behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It should come as no surprise that no other studio was willing to take a chance and go head-to-head with Civil War. However, it won't be the only film earning tens of millions of dollars this weekend. The Jungle Book will finally relinquish top spot, but I would be shocked if it didn't earn at least $20 million over the weekend. None of the rest of the box office will earn a fraction of that. Due to a misalignment in the calendar, the biggest new release from this weekend last year was Hot Pursuit, while The Avengers: Age of Ultron topped the chart with $77.75 million. Civil War should make more than that opening day.
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May 4th, 2016
Captain America: Civil War started its international run a week before its domestic run and it was a huge success earning $200.2 million in 37 markets. It broke the all-time opening weekend record in both Mexico ($20.4 million) and Brazil ($12.9 million) as well as the biggest opening weekend of 2016 in France ($9.9 million). However, its biggest market was South Korea, where it earned $20.75 million on 1,990 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $28.39 million. The U.K. could also claim that title with an three-day opening weekend of $21.1 million. The film opens in China this weekend, among other countries, so it should have no trouble remaining in first place on the international chart.
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May 3rd, 2016
The Family Fang led the way on the theater average chart with $14,506 in one theater. This is the last time we will talk about this film's box office numbers, because it opens on VOD this Friday, thus ending its chances of box office success. Then again, clearly VOD is more important to a limited release than the theatrical box office is. The Man Who Knew Infinity was next with an average of $13,388 in six theaters. That's good, but likely not good enough to expand significantly. Eva Hesse was playing in just one theater earning $12,780 over the weekend and $17,912 from Wednesday through Sunday. The Jungle Book made the $10,000 club for the third weekend in a row with an average of $10,818.
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May 3rd, 2016
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This past weekend was the weekend before the start of summer, so you knew the wide releases weren't going to be massive hits. However, I was still hoping for more than what we got. Fortunately, The Jungle Book did beat expectations earning first place with $43.71 million. The best of the new releases was Keanu, which only managed third place with $9.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 16% from last weekend to $108 million. The year-over-year comparison is devastating; however, that's because the same weekend last year was the first weekend of May when The Avengers: Age of Ultron debuted. Compared to last year, this weekend's box office was 54% lower. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has shrunk to 5.7% at $3.51 billion to $3.32 billion. Next weekend, 2016 should bounce back when Captain America: Civil War opens.
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May 1st, 2016
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It’s another bloodbath at the box office this weekend, with the combined efforts of three new wide releases barely earning half of the third weekend’s gross for The Jungle Book. With Captain America: Civil War also posting over $200 million overseas this weekend, Disney’s reign of terror is just getting started.
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April 30th, 2016
The Jungle Book easily remained in first place on Friday’s box office chart, earning $10.25 million. That is down just 38% from last Friday and if the weekend as the same internal multiplier as last time, then we are looking at a $49 million weekend haul. That’s a lot more than we predicted and would push the film’s running tally well over $250 million. However, this seems overly bullish—I would expect a weekend total of a few million less.
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April 28th, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week, but none of them look like they will challenge The Jungle Book for top spot. In fact, it looks like all three combined won't come close to The Jungle Book weekend haul. Keanu is the best of the new releases and it has a shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Mother's Day could have been a midlevel hit as counter-programming, especially with Mother's Day just over a week away. However, early reviews are hurting its chances with moviegoers. Finally there's Ratchet and Clank, which is one of those animated movies that feels like it should have gone Direct-to-Video. As for this weekend last year... this weekend last year was the first weekend of May, so year-over-year comparison has to deal with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. Obviously 2016 is going to get crushed this weekend. It should bounce back next weekend.
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April 27th, 2016
The Jungle Book earned nearly three times as much money as its nearest competition with $96.0 million in 53 markets for totals of $337.0 million internationally and $529.2 million worldwide. More impressively, it did this with no major market openings this past weekend. As for individual markets, the film became the biggest Hollywood film in India earning $28.8 million after three weeks of release. The previous record holder was Furious 7 at $23.4 million. The film's biggest weekend haul came from China, where it made $29.78 million over the weekend for a total of $99.03 million after just 11 days of release.
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April 26th, 2016
It wasn't a great week for new limited releases, which left a holdover / wide release on top of the theater average chart. The Jungle Book led the way with an average of $15,278. The only other film in the $10,000 was The Meddler, which opened with an average of $14,256 in four theaters.
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April 26th, 2016
Both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War were a little weaker than predicted over the weekend. The Jungle Book was still able to earn the biggest sophomore weekend of 2016 at $61.54 million. For The Huntsman: Winter's War, it was a disappointing $19.45 million. Overall, the box office fell 28% to $128 million. However, this was still 32% more than the same weekend last year. Unfortunately, next weekend is going to be damn awful in the year-over-year comparison, because of a misalignment in the weekend. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.37 million, putting it ahead of last year's pace by 8.5% or $260 million.
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April 24th, 2016
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What in theory should have been a battle at the box office has turned into a rout this weekend, with The Jungle Book set to earn $60 million, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate, and The Huntsman: Winter’s War limping into second place with $20.1 million, per Universal.
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April 23rd, 2016
The Jungle Book remained the top draw on Friday with $16.38 million, which was more than twice as much as The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with. With its reviews and family-friendly nature, Saturday will be even better for Jungle Book, and it should top $60 million over the weekend. That’s a great sophomore weekend, even if it is below our prediction of $65 million. It also won’t quite take the film past $200 million by the end of the weekend, but it will be close enough that Disney will be able to celebrate that milestone shortly.
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April 22nd, 2016
The Huntsman: Winter's War earned $1 million during its previews last night. This is not a bad result for this time of year, but it is a mere fraction of the $4.2 million The Jungle Book brought in last week. Assuming these numbers are correct, the film is on pace to earn $20 million to $25 million during its opening weekend. However, I think the lower end is more likely, because its reviews are going to hurt the word-of-mouth.
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April 21st, 2016
It's a bad week for new releases, as The Jungle Book is widely expected to dominate the box office. The only truly wide release is The Huntsman: Winter's War, but its reviews are simply terrible. There are also three films opening in select theaters and one of them should earn a spot in the top ten. They only need a little more than $1 million to do so. This weekend last year, the only true wide release was The Age of Adaline, which opened with $13 million on its way to becoming a midlevel hit. The Huntsman could double that opening, but it won't have the same legs.
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April 21st, 2016
The Jungle Book roared to first place with $136.1 million in 49 markets for very early totals of $187.4 million internationally and $290.7 million worldwide. This includes a first-place, $49.26 million opening in China. It also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $14.80 million in 594 theaters. It also opened in first place in France ($7,99 million on 653 screens) and Germany ($5.13 million on 934). These openings are great, but not as great as its domestic debut. Then again, its domestic debut was stunning.
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April 20th, 2016
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The winners of our Animal Instinct contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Jungle Book opening weekend were...
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April 20th, 2016
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Green Room led the way with an average of $29,328 in three theaters. This is yet another success for A24 and whoever is in charge of acquisitions over there needs to get a raise. The overall number one film, The Jungle Book was next with an average of $25,636. Sing Street was well back with an average of $12,715 in five theaters. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Vita Activa: The Spirit of Hannah Arendt, which was down a mere 18% to $10,814 in its lone theater.
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April 18th, 2016
Wow. As expected, The Jungle Book easily won first place on the box office chart, but did so with a much, much better than anticipated result of $103.26 million during its opening weekend. This is more than the rest of the box office earned. Barbershop: The Next Cut did well as counter-programming earning $20.24 million. On the other hand, Criminal missed the top five and barely managed to avoid the Mendoza Line. The overall box office was $176 million, which was 68% more than last weekend and 47% more than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $3.19 billion at the box office, which is 9.2% / $270 million more than last year's pace. I didn't think 2016 had a chance to top 2015, but I'm really getting optimistic now.
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April 16th, 2016
Friday's box office had some good news, some bad news, and some ugly news. The Jungle Book opened with an amazing $32.41 million on Friday. Given its family-friendly target demographic and its 95% positive reviews, it should have a great internal multiplier. For example, Cinderella opened with $23.00 million during its opening day on the way to an opening weekend of $67.88 million. If The Jungle Book has the same internal multiplier, it will earn $96 million over the weekend. However, films that open bigger have a harder time maintaining those numbers. An opening weekend of $90 million is possible, but I think it will fall just short of that mark.
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April 15th, 2016
The Jungle Book has stellar previews pulling in $4.2 million in Thursday. That's not as big as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice or Deadpool made earlier this year. However, it is more than the $2.3 million Cinderella earned last year. This bodes well for its weekend run.
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April 15th, 2016
Hollywood's attempt to redefine the start of summer as "some time in April" continue this week with the release of The Jungle Book. This film is expected to dominate the box office this weekend and possibly next weekend as well. Barbershop: The Next Cut is also expected to do well, perhaps earning the biggest opening in the franchise, not taking into account inflation. Finally there's Criminal, which should just be happy with a spot in the top five. This weekend last year, Furious 7 led the way, but Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 and Unfriended were close behind. Fortunately, it looks like The Jungle Book will earn more than those three made combined. 2016 should have a good week on the year-over-year comparison.
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April 15th, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place with $31.92 million in 67 theaters for totals of $486.8 million internationally and $783.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will hit $800 million early this weekend, but it looks like $900 million might be out of reach. This is bad news for the studio, as the film reportedly needed to hit $1 billion to break even. On other other hand, if the other films in the D.C. Extended Universe are good, then each time one of them comes out, BvS will gets a small boost on the home market. Maybe that will be enough to break even eventually.
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April 14th, 2016
The winners of our Don't Boss Me Around contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Boss opening weekend were...
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April 12th, 2016
The Boss was a little better than anticipated and that helped it overtake Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice during its opening weekend. The fact that BvS couldn't get first place three weekends in a row despite the lack of top-tier competition is really bad news. It's not the only film struggling at the box office, as Hardcore Henry missed the Mendoza Line during its opening. The overall box office fell 20% from last weekend to $105 million. It was also down 20% from the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $2.99 billion, but its lead over 2015 has shrunk to 8.0% or $220 million. That's still a good figure, one that should grow next weekend when The Jungle Book opens.
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April 8th, 2016
The Jungle Book opens wide next weekend and while it isn't the only wide release of the week, it is the only one with a shot at first place at the box office. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Jungle Book.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, maybe.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, potentially.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of two previously reviewed movies, most likely.
The Twist for the month of April is April Fools. Two of the winners will receive two movies, the other will be the April Fool and will get a couple of exercise videos. I reviewed more of those than I remember.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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April 1st, 2016
March was a really good month, for the most part. There were a few bombs, but the two biggest films, Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both beat expectations by significant margins, so overall the box office was better than expected. Unfortunately, April is a mess, which makes prognosticating really tough. Every single week has at least one film that either moved, switched from wide to limited release, or disappeared entirely. The Jungle Book appears to be the biggest film of the year, but The Huntsman: Winter's War could also be a $100 million hit. Sadly, last April was led by Furious 7, which earned more than $350 million at the box office. That's very likely more than both The Jungle Book and The Huntsman: Winter's War will make combined. Worse still, there were only four weekends in April last year, meaning the month ends by going head-to-head with The Avengers: Age of Ultron. By the time the month ends, 2016's lead over 2015 might be gone. Let's hope it is not that bad.
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