September 10th, 2021
After the fantastic opening for Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings last weekend, our model is expecting a September slump at the box office this time around, with three new high-profile releases not doing enough to make up for a big drop for the Marvel superhero movie in its second weekend. The market’s best hope lies with Malignant, the supernatural horror movie from James Wan, but it’ll take a miracle to see anything like the overall business we saw over Labor Day weekend, and Shang-Chi is very unlikely to be unseated at the top of the chart.
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August 27th, 2019
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Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year.
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August 25th, 2019
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There is some good news to talk about and that’s been depressingly rare this year. Angel Has Fallen is beating expectations with an estimated opening of $21.25 million. This opening is just behind London Has Fallen’s debut. Additionally, Angel has better reviews and matched the previous film’s A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have similar legs. It is too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but given the franchise’s performance so far, I remain optimistic.
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August 23rd, 2019
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Angel Has Fallen had the best previews in the franchise earning $1.5 million last night, putting it on pace for about $15 million over the weekend. This matches our expectations nearly perfectly and should be enough to keep Lionsgate happy.
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August 22nd, 2019
There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined.
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August 30th, 2015
Straight Outta Compton will win a third weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, but it won’t be without a struggle. The biopic lost on Friday to War Room, a faith-based film that opened in just 1,135 theaters, and the weekend race will finish with just a couple of million dollars between the two films, with Compton’s $13.2 million edging out War Room’s $11 million. Compton now has $134 million in the bank, making it the fifth-highest-grossing biographical film after American Sniper ($350 million), Lincoln ($182 million), A Beautiful Mind ($170 million), and Catch Me if You Can ($165 million). If you’re playing the Oscars game at home already, it’s worth noting that three of the four films above it received Best Picture nominations (Catch Me if You Can being the odd-one-out).
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