This graph shows Marion Cotillard’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
There are over two dozen limited releases coming out this week, but many of them had only a handful of, if any, reviews. There are some that should find a receptive audience, whether its on Video on Demand like Pyewacket, or whether it has massive breakout success, like most think Isle of Dogs will manage.
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November was good, but not great. Fortunately, 2016 had a large enough lead going into November that the month only needed to be good. In fact, it could have been mediocre and 2016 would have still had an excellent shot to end the year above 2015. As for December, it’s a race between Star Wars and Star Wars. Almost no one thinks Rogue One is going to match The Force Awakens, but if Rogue One earns just half of what The Force Awakens managed, then 2016 will come out on top in the year-over-year comparison. There are only two other films with a better than 50/50 chance of hitting $100 million, Passengers and Sing. Either one could earn second place for the month, but Passengers will likely start faster. Last December, the only other film to earn more than $100 million was Daddy’s Home, which earned just a hair over $150 million. There’s a chance both Passengers and Sing will earn more than $150 million, which would be a boon to the box office. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens was just too strong last year and it would take a miracle for 2016 to have a stronger December. That said, it would take a complete collapse for 2016 not to top 2015 in raw dollars. The growth might not be enough to keep pace with ticket price inflation, on the other hand.
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October turned out to be a mixed month. On the one hand, not one movie earned $100 million, or even came close. However, it was also a more steady month than last October and the last two weeks really helped 2016 in the year-over-year comparisons. In November, we have five films with at least a shot at $100 million, three of which should have no trouble getting to at least $200 million. A little while ago, I thought Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them would be the biggest hit of the month, but the buzz took a hit recently. More on that below. Meanwhile, Doctor Strange’s reviews are currently 90% positive and that should help it out at the box office. The third very likely $200 million hit is Moana. There is certainly precedent for an animated movie to be a monster hit at this time of year, but there is also a lot of competition. Last November was similar in strength, with five films that earned more than $100 million and two films that earned more than $200 million. None earned more than $300 million, so that’s the goal for this November. If we can get one $300 million and / or three $200 million movies over the month, then it will be seen as a victory.
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It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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It is a relatively good week for limited releases with a few films earning stunning reviews. This includes Born to be Blue, which I think has the best shot at mainstream success. April and the Extraordinary World and Mia madre also have a chance at doing well in limited release.
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It's March 8th, which is International Women's Day. This is the one day a year where men flood Twitter asking, "Why isn't there an International Men's Day." ... There is. It's November 19th. ... Anyway, it isn't a great week for new releases. The biggest release is The Peanuts Movie and its 3D Combo Pack is a Pick of the Week contender. However, it just misses out on that title to Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Season 1.
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TV on DVD releases dominate the home market this week even more than they did last week, including five of the six best-selling new releases on Amazon.com. Despite this, none of them are contenders for Pick of the Week, at least not in my opinion. The two best are Two Days, One Night and CitizenFour. I really should select one of those for Pick of the Week... but I'm going with Big Game on Blu-ray, because I'm a big goofball.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two leading actor categories, starting with Best Lead Actress. One actress is so far ahead of the rest of the field that there isn't even a consensus on who the second place actress should be.
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American Sniper was confidently expected to top the box office charts this weekend, and to give Clint Eastwood his best weekend as a director, but no-one was predicting that the film would break the record for the biggest weekend in January by over $20 million. As of Sunday morning, that’s what Warner Bros. is projecting for the film with their official weekend estimate standing at $90,205,000 from 3,555 theaters. Since the film had already played for three weeks in exclusive engagements, it will also grab the crown for biggest fourth weekend at the box office.
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The Oscar nominations were announced early in the morning, when all sensible people were asleep. There were some surprises, as well as some results that would have been surprises had it not been for the previous Awards Season nominations. Seventeen films earned two or more nods, led by Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, both of which picked up nine nominations, while The Imitation Game was right behind with eight.
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The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last week and I'm getting to them a little late, because I needed to organize the whole Awards Season stories. Firstly, I've decided to use the year the movies were released not the year the awards are handed out, unlike what we did last year. This means both will have 2014 as the year. Not ideal, but it is better to fix the mistake now than carry on making it. Secondly, the headlines are just going to be the name of the Awards and either nominations or winners. This will make it easier for readers to find later on. As for the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, Birdman led the way with 6 nods, while Boyhood, Nightcrawler, and Selma were right behind with 5 each.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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SAG nominations were announced and there were only a few surprises to deal with. Leading the way for total nominations was The Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, and Les Miserables, all of which earned nominations in four of the six categories.
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It's a pretty light week for limited releases. Hitchcock is by far the biggest release, but its reviews are only mixed, so its box office chances are not strong. On the other hand, The Central Park Five is earning reviews that are strong enough that it should thrive, at least in limited release. It is very rare for a documentary to expand wide, even under the best of circumstances.
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