July 1st, 2018
June was amazing, with two absolute monster hits and a solid $100 million hit. By the end of the month, 2018’s lead over 2017 will be well over $500 million, or close to 10%. Even if 2018 only managed to maintain this lead in terms of raw numbers for the rest of the year, it will be a massive jump at the box office. As for July, there are a couple of potential monster hits, Ant-Man and the Wasp and Mission: Impossible—Fallout, plus four potential $100 million hits. Last July, there was only one monster hit, Spider-Man: Homecoming, and three $100 million hits. I don’t think 2018 will match 2017 at the top, but 2018 appears to have more depth and that should put it a little ahead over the full month.
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September 5th, 2017
There are a few first-run releases coming out this week, but none of them did well enough in theaters and / or with critics to bother with above the fold, so to speak. There is one exception, The Big Sick, but it is only coming out on VOD this week. I’m hoping a Blu-ray screener is on its way. As for the Pick of the Week contenders, they are, in alphabetical order, Emmet Otter’s Jug-Band Christmas on DVD, Mr. Mom on Blu-ray, and Rebecca: Criterion Collection on Blu-ray. In the end, I went with the Alfred Hitchcock classic as the Pick of the Week.
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January 10th, 2016
Hotel Transylvania came out a few years ago. It cost $85 million to make, which is a lot of money by nearly every definition, but relatively cheap for a digitally animated film. The reviews were mixed, but it was a big financial hit. It came as no surprise that there was a sequel. Hotel Transylvania 2 did better than its predecessor in nearly every way, but it is still a second-tier digitally animated film. For a second-tier film like this to succeed, all it needs to do is entertain the kids while not making the parents want to flee the room right away. That's not a particularly high bar to set. Does this film manage to get above that bar?
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July 26th, 2015
Three new wide releases and three returning movies that are still pulling in good crowds will produce a box office chart with no knock-out winner this weekend. That’s in large part thanks to a disappointing debut from Pixels. The Adam Sandler/Kevin James-comedy/adventure-Ghostbusters/wannabe will earn about $24 million this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday estimate. That puts it in danger of not even earning back its marketing budget domestically, let alone starting to recover the $88 million production budget. It also means that Ant-Man will top the charts for a second weekend.
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July 1st, 2015
June was a much better month than expected due to two films, Jurassic World and Inside Out. Had those two films merely matched expectations, then 2015 would have likely fallen behind 2014. As for this coming month, there are five weekends in July and each week there is at least one film with the potential to reach $100 million. Most weeks there are two films that at least have a shot at getting to the century mark. The biggest hit of the month will likely be Minions, which has already opened in several international markets and it's ahead of Despicable Me 2 at the same point. That film made more than $300 million and nearly $1 billion worldwide, so any growth would be fantastic. There are also a number of potential $200 million films, led by Ant-man. Ant-man is the latest release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, a franchise that has averaged $300 million domestically over eleven films and all of the past six films have reached at least $200 million. I'm not saying this one is guaranteed to do the same, but you can't dismiss that possibility. Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation and Pixels have smaller chances to get to $200 million, but you have to at least entertain the possibility. Additionally, last July was a lot weaker than this July looks to be, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison most weeks. Or I might have let the box office success of June cloud my judgment. We will soon find out.
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April 1st, 2015
March ended on a good note and helped 2015 maintain its lead over 2014 thanks to a trio of $100 million movies: Cinderella, Insurgent, and Home. April isn't as strong as far as depth goes, as only Furious 7 is expected to come close to $100 million at the box office. On the positive side, it could earn $100 million during its opening weekend, becoming the fastest starting film of the year, so far. On the negative side, it is expected to earn more than double the rest of the films' combined box office totals. Even worse, last April, there were two $100 million hits, including Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as well as two others that came close. There's no way April 2015 is going to live up to April 2014. I just hope the collapse isn't so bad that 2015 loses its lead over 2014 completely.
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February 4th, 2013
It's not a bad week as far as first run releases go with three of them appearing high on the chart. This includes Flight, which has earned some major nominations during Awards Season. However, it is a shallow week, as there are also Direct-to-DVD kids releases and even a workout DVD in the top ten, according to Amazon.com. Leading the way is Peter Pan on Blu-ray Combo Pack or Blu-ray Combo Pack with Storybook App. This is not only the best-selling Blu-ray of the week, but it is also the best and is the Pick of the Week.
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October 14th, 2012
Taken 2 is set for a second weekend at the top of the box office charts with $22.5 million, although its 55% decline from last weekend makes it clear that the film won't have anything like the legs of its predecessor, which fell only 17% in its second outing. That will make for a tight pack of films at the top of the chart this weekend, with Argo leading the charge. Ben Affleck's film is set for $20.1 million this weekend and is showing signs of having very good word of mouth: it was up 47% from Friday to Saturday and looks likely to fall by around 35% on Sunday -- impressive figures these days. Sinister will have the rare distinction of opening at the top of the chart on Friday and finishing the weekend in third place (Lionsgate has its gross pegged at $18.25 million over three days).
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October 5th, 2012
There are three wide releases coming out next week, and another opening semi-wide. Here Comes the Boom could win the box office race, especially if Kevin James returns to his earlier box office success. Sinister could be a low-level hit, especially if horror fans are excited by Halloween, but it doesn't have the hype to compete for first place. Seven Psychopaths might win an Oscar given its reviews, but it is opening in less than 2000 theaters and likely won't reach the top five. This leaves Argo as the most likely candidate for number one film next weekend. (Here Comes the Boom does have a shot, while Taken 2 might repeat on top of the chart during its second weekend of release.) Argo is the target film in this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Argo.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or under, will win a copy of Dark Shadows on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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October 1st, 2012
2012 continues its downward path. After a record-breaking spring, thanks to The Hunger Games, and a record-breaking start to the summer, thanks to The Avengers, the box office hasn't been able to maintain any real momentum. For most of the month, September was no better than August and now the year-over-year gains are just a little more than inflation. October will need to improve or 2012 will be in real trouble. Unfortunately, that might be tough. There's not a single film coming out in October that looks like it will be a guaranteed $100 million hit and there are only two films with a realistic chance, Taken 2 and Paranormal Activity 4. (There's also Cloud Atlas, which is a wild card. That movie could bomb or be the biggest hit of the month and I wouldn't be surprised either way.) There is a chance all three will get to the century mark, but there's a better chance none of them will. Last October, two films cracked $100 million: Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots, with the latter nearly reaching $150 million. I don't see any film coming close to matching that figure. On the other hand, last year there were six films that one could accurately describe as bombs. So while 2012 is weaker at the top, it could have better depth than 2011 did. Let's hope so, because we can't afford more bad news.
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