This graph shows Amandla Stenberg’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The Hate U Give opened in limited release in October and while it never reached the top five, it did very well at the box office. Its reviews are 97% positive, but it hasn’t gone anywhere during Awards Season. Does it deserve more? Or is it busted Oscar-bait?
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September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin.
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Every week, I have to decide which limited releases to talk about in the main list of this column. Usually I limit myself to those with double-digit reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Last week, there were so few limited releases to talk about, I included some that I wouldn’t normally include. This week, there are about 30 films coming out in limited release, so I have to be extra judicious and cut some films just to keep the list manageable. Unfortunately, it feels like a case of quantity over quality. There are some movies that are getting excellent reviews, but a lot of movies that had strong pre-release buzz are disappointing critically. There are some I’m interested in, like I Think We’re Alone Now, but that’s more for the cast than the reviews. Mandy is one of the best films, but it is playing on Video on Demand, so I don’t expect it will do well at the box office. There are also several documentaries, with Science Fair being the one I want to see the most.
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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Alien: Covenant is looking to unseat Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 for top spot on the box office chart this weekend. Meanwhile, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul and Everything, Everything are just trying to survive in counter-programming roles. The prognosis for those two is mixed. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, there were five films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. This year, there might be only two. Hopefully the new releases aren’t that bad, while the holdovers don’t completely collapse. If this happens, 2017 could win in the year-over-year comparison for the second weekend in a row. If not, then 2017's winning streak will end at one.
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April is over and thank god for that. The Fate of the Furious is currently the only film that was better than a midlevel hit, while Going in Style might end up being the second-biggest release of the month. On the low end, there were seven films on last month’s list that didn’t even manage to open in truly wide release (2,000 or more theaters). Fortunately, May looks a lot brighter. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should dominate the chart and get the month off to a fast start. Furthermore, every week there’s at least one film with a reasonable chance of earning $100 million domestically. Additionally, last May wasn’t particularly strong, so that should help 2017 overall. Granted, Captain America: Civil War earned more than $400 million, so the month got off to a fast start, but films struggled the rest of the way. The second-biggest film was X-Men: Apocalypse at just $155 million, while only one other movie, The Angry Birds Movie, earned more than $100 million. Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 should at least be competitive with Captain America: Civil War, allowing 2017 to win thanks to its superior depth.
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I previously reviewedRio and thought it was... a movie. It is so middle of the road that I couldn't get passionate about the film, either positively or negatively. That said, it made a ton of money, especially internationally, so it should come as no surprise that Rio 2 was made. Does it improve upon its predecessor? Does it get worse? Or is it yet another movie that just exists?
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