This graph shows Liam Hemsworth’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
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The Hunger Games franchise has come to a close. The four films earned a combined $1.45 billion domestically and $2.90 billion worldwide. The final two chapters of the film franchise didn't live up to the first two in terms of quality and box office numbers. Did it collapse so much in quality that the franchise isn't worth owning? If not, is it worth picking up, even with the double-dips?
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Wow. It is a summer week on the home market, as there are a ton of summer shows coming out on DVD. Unfortunately, none of them seem like big sellers. The best-selling new release of the week is Seventh Son, which is a terrible sign. The second best is The Nanny: The Complete Series. I don't know how to react to that. As for the best of the new releases, Magician: The Astonishing Life and Work of Orson Wells (DVD or Blu-ray) is as good as it gets.
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October was a better than expected month with the overall box office keeping pace with October of 2013, for the most part. (The last weekend will be terrible, but that's because of Halloween.) We were able to close the gap somewhat in the year-over-year comparison, at least by a little bit. So how will November do compared to October. Let's put it this way. There are only seven films opening wide this month. Of those, Beyond the Lights will likely not make an impact at the box office. Every other film has at least a reasonable shot at $100 million. More than half the of the films opening this month could hit $200 million. Leading the way will be The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1, which could hit $400 million. The only problem is when book franchises split the final installment into two parts, the first part tends to be weaker at the box office. Interstellar is a big question mark. On the low end, it could make just over $100 million, while on the high end, just over $300 million is within reach. That's a wide range of expectations. On the downside, last November, there were two movies to reach $400 million: Catching Fire and Frozen. On the other hand, there was only one other movie to make more than $100 million, Thor: The Dark World, so perhaps the depth this year will help 2014 come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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The Hunger Games came out in 2012 with high expectations. Many thought it was going to be a good movie and do very well, especially for a spring time release. Instead, it broke records, including best mid-night screening for a non-sequel, biggest March weekend, biggest weekend for a non-sequel, etc. And thanks to its high quality, it had better than expected legs. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire came out last fall and earned even more money at the box office. Is it as good as its predecessor? Or can it be even better?
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October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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July was hit and miss at the box office, mostly miss. In fact, only two films really topped expectations, Despicable Me 2 and The Conjuring. That said, 2013 has nearly closed the gap with 2012 and it won't take much to pull ahead. Looking forward to August, we find that it is a very busy month with 16 or so films opening wide over five weeks. Of course, the closer you get to September, the more likely these films will struggle to find an audience, and more often than not, there are simply too many films opening wide to suspect they will all find an audience. On the high end, 2 Guns could be the biggest hit of the month with just over $100 million. The Smurfs 2 and Elysium could pull in $100 million. All three of those films are opening in the first two weeks of the month. After that, most of the new releases will be lucky if they reach $50 million during their theatrical runs. By comparison, last August was not as busy with 14 wide releases. Of those, only one film, The Bourne Legacy, topped $100 million, although a couple came reasonably close. Hopefully we will have more $100 million hits this time around and 2013 will be able to complete the comeback.
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Do sapphires shine? Regardless of the accuracy of the headline, The Sapphires is leading the limited releases in terms of box office potential. Nearly perfect reviews and good buzz is certainly helping out. However, Gimme the Loot has actually perfect reviews and it might also find a receptive audience in limited release. Starbuck's reviews are not as good, but the Canadian film has already been remade in Hollywood, so clearly someone thinks the story has potential with mainstream audiences.
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The Expendables cost $82 million, which is not an insignificant amount of money, especially for a mini-major like Lionsgate. However, the risk paid off when it became the distributor's biggest hit of all time. (That record has since been broken by The Hunger Games.) It was obvious that they would make a sequel, but is it any good? Granted, in my review, I called the original, "a pretty mindless action film that takes itself a little too seriously at times." So I'm not expecting a lot here. If the movie can provide mindless action like before, then I will assume it is worth checking out for fans. Can it deliver? Can it surpass expectations?
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