May 5th, 2017
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It is one of those weeks where it is hard to find a film with high box office potential. Last Men in Aleppo is the best movie, but as a documentary, it likely won’t expand significantly. Chuck has a great cast, but it’s reviews are merely good. Maybe The Lovers will do the best.
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July 1st, 2016
It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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February 1st, 2016
As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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May 25th, 2015
Wow. It is a summer week on the home market, as there are a ton of summer shows coming out on DVD. Unfortunately, none of them seem like big sellers. The best-selling new release of the week is Seventh Son, which is a terrible sign. The second best is The Nanny: The Complete Series. I don't know how to react to that. As for the best of the new releases, Magician: The Astonishing Life and Work of Orson Wells (DVD or Blu-ray) is as good as it gets.
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November 24th, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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June 7th, 2013
There are not a ton of new releases this week, but there are a few earning good reviews, and even a couple that are earning excellent reviews. Hopefully several will do well enough at the box office to thrive, but the only one I'm really bullish about is Much Ado About Nothing. It has excellent reviews, lots of buzz, and plenty of name recognition on both sides of the camera.
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June 3rd, 2013
Warm Bodies was released in theaters in early February, which is a bad time of the year to release a film. Additionally, the early buzz was bad. A lot of people saw the basic premise (romance between a zombie boy and a living girl) and thought it was just another Twilight rip-off. The first trailer showed it was something different, but sometimes first impressions are lasting impressions. Fortunately it was able to top expectations and became a surprise midlevel hit. Will it continue to perform well on the home market? And did the studio thank those who made it a hit in theaters by releasing a fully loaded DVD / Blu-ray?
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February 1st, 2013
For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a couple of films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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January 31st, 2013
February begins with two wide releases, Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head. Both will have to deal with holdovers, and more importantly, The Super Bowl. Bullet to the Head's target audience is nearly identical to that for the Super Bowl, while at least Warm Bodies has at least some chance of a breakout success. Last year there were three wide releases, two of which opened with more than $20 million. It is going to be almost impossible for 2013 to match that result.
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