Weekend predictions: Avatar fires up theaters with weekend headed to the 90s or 100s

December 19, 2025

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Avatar: Fire and Ash storms into theaters this weekend, and is a lock on top spot at the box office through the Holidays. With an emphasis on spectacle, we’re seeing huge sales of premium tickets for the movie, and the seasonal timing and lack of FOMO around potential spoilers or dramatic surprises means many people aren’t in a huge hurry to see the movie on opening weekend. What we’re seeing so far points towards a weekend between $90 million and $110 million, with our model landing on $95 million as of this morning. That will suit Fox/Disney just fine. With three other major releases—David, The Housemaid, and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for Squarepants—all likely to produce good opening numbers, it’ll be a busy weekend in movie theaters.

Give the large quantity of data to get through, here are the numbers presented without comment…

Here’s what the model thinks the top 10 will look like.

I’ll be back with more analysis through the weekend.

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Bruce Nash,