Weekend prediction: Dune: Part Two set to spice up the box office

March 1, 2024

Dune: Part Two

There’s no question at all whether Dune: Part Two will top the box office chart this weekend, nor whether it will have the best opening weekend of the year so far. This is a film with loftier goals though. The real targets for the film are, at the low end, finishing Sunday as the highest-grossing movie of 2024, and, at the high end, breaking the psychologically important (and let’s face it, financially important) $100-million-opening barrier. Here’s what our model has to say about that, plus another opening weekend for The Chosen.

The model’s baseline projection for Dune 2 started out pretty simple. Sequels tend to earn roughly the same amount as their predecessors. Meaning, all else being equal, one would expect Dune: Part Two to open with about the same amount as Dune, around $64 million.

Some important factors aren’t equal this time around though. First, Warner Bros. released the first Dune simultaneously on HBO Max. Second, the theatrical market is theoretically very different in March, 2024 than it was in October, 2021. And third, this the first movie that could be described as a blockbuster since at least Christmas, and arguably July of last year.

All of that causes the model to make a substantial adjustment to its prediction…

The lack of hit movies this year means the model thinks the market is incredibly weak right now, running at just 43% of pre-pandemic levels. Counteracting that is huge audience interest in the Dune sequel, which pushes the predicted opening weekend up to $112.9 million.

The range of uncertainty with a prediction like this is very large. On the one hand, we’re dividing by a big number to reflect the lack of hits recently, on the other hand, we’re multiplying by a big number that reflects how much people are talking about the film, how many are watching the trailers, and so on, all of which are imperfect predictors of ultimate box office success.

This morning, we got our first concrete number on the film, $12 million in Thursday previews, which points to a very good opening, but perhaps not one exceeding $100 million:

Our final opening weekend prediction, at just shy of $90 million, would make Dune: Part Two the top-grossing film of 2024 by the end of the weekend. Assuming it shows the same kind of strength internationally, that would also set the film up for profitability, particularly if the excellent reviews turn into a lengthy run in theaters.

The new benchmark for Dune is perhaps whether it can beat Taylor Swift’s $93.2-million opening. Anything around that would comfortably qualify Dune: Part Two as a blockbuster.

Also opening this weekend is the third part in what could be thought of as The Chosen Season 4 trilogy. It looks likely to land not far behind the previous installment based on what we’ve heard about Thursday’s number…

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

This weekend is all about Dune, and there’s no question we’ll see over $100 million spent in theaters this weekend, which will be only the second time we’ve hit that benchmark in 2024. The fact that so much of this weekend’s earnings are coming from one film is a concern for the strength of the overall market though. Hopefully Kung Fu Panda 4 can add some breadth to the depth next weekend.

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: The Chosen