Weekend predictions: Swift/Scorsese race too close to call

October 20, 2023

Killers of the Flower Moon

Martin Scorsese or Taylor Swift? That’s the question facing moviegoers this weekend. After The Eras Tour smashed records last weekend, with a $92.8-million debut, it’s expected to fall substantially this weekend. Killers of the Flower Moon is expected to land Scorsese one of his best openings ever. But which one will top the chart is extremely hard to prediction, even with Thursday’s numbers for each film beginning to give us some clues.

First up, here’s what our model thought about Flower Moon going into the weekend…

The interesting number here for me is that audience tracking adjustment. The buzz in Hollywood around this film has been huge for months, but we’re not really seeing that in the broader market. That might be because the actors strike has kept Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro away from promoting the movie. The relatively older demographic for this film is probably a factor too. Whatever the cause, the fact that our tracking of internet activity is nudging our prediction lower is a surprise to me.

The Thursday preview numbers suggest that the film will come in ahead of our original prediction:

I think the best comp in the list above might be Ford v. Ferrari, which turned $2.1 million in previews into a $31.5-million opening. The comparison is complicated by the fact that Killers of the Flower Moon’s previews started at 2pm yesterday to accommodate its long running time. That may have boosted its preview tally, which would in turn slightly subdue expectations for the weekend. Something around $30 million seems quite likely though.

We’re in uncharted territory with The Eras Tour, partly because of its huge opening last weekend, and partly because it wasn’t playing on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday. That’s a very unusual strategy, although one that makes a lot of sense given the best way to watch this film is in a big crowd. The model thinks we’ll see it decline to around $32 million this weekend, which puts it neck-and-neck with Killers of the Flower Moon. Honestly, I think it’s impossible to predict which film will end up wearing the crown this weekend.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

Also notable this weekend is the re-release of The Nightmare Before Christmas. The prediction is based on its last re-release, back in 2020. Dicks: The Musical could also feature in the top 10. We don’t have a theater count from A24 yet, and it’s not clear how wide it is expanding. It fell to earth fairly steeply last weekend when it expanded modestly, so it will probably struggle to make a big impact.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Nightmare Before Christmas, Killers of the Flower Moon, Dicks: The Musical, TAYLOR SWIFT | THE ERAS TOUR, Robert De Niro, Leonardo DiCaprio, Martin Scorsese