Weekend projections: Dead Reckoning shows strong legs as it hits $80 million in five days

July 16, 2023

Mission: Impossible, Dead Reckoning—Part One is enjoying a strong hold through the weekend after starting out with a disappointing Wednesday and Thursday. So much so that it’ll hit $80 million by close of business on Sunday, according to Paramount’s projection this morning. With Sound of Freedom having a fantastic second weekend—up a projected 37% from its opening—the weekend box office will come in well ahead of Friday’s prediction.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Dead Reckoning will earn 2.36 times its Wednesday+Thursday box office over the Friday–Sunday weekend, close to the performance of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and at the top end of what our model thought was possible on Friday. That’s probably explained at least in part by the film’s excellent word of mouth. It currently has a 96% critic score and 94% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t far behind Top Gun: Maverick. That’s a promising performance for a film that won’t have much direct competition until The Meg 2 opens on August 4.

Mission: Impossible is also performing strongly internationally, with a $235-million worldwide debut, with $155 million internationally. It will have the biggest opening weekend for the franchise in 35 markets including the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand, Brazil, India, the Netherlands and Scandinavia. China will be its biggest market overall, with $25.4 million, followed by South Korea’s $14.3 million, and $13.8 million in the United Kingdom.

Sound of Freedom, meanwhile, joins a very small club of films that earned more in their second weekend than their first. The pay-it-forward model for ticket purchases is clearly paying off for a film that a lot of people care passionately about, and probably accounts for a lot of the 37% increase in sales this weekend. It now has $85.5 million after 13 days in release, making it easily the top earner for an independent this year.

The performance of the top two films, plus another good hold for Elemental, will give us a welcome “up” weekend at the box office. If BarbieOppenheimer deliver close to expectations next weekend, we should see a strong end to the Summer.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com