Weekend projections: Transformers’ $60.5-million enough to push Spider-Man into second place

June 11, 2023

Transformers: Rise of the Beasts will open with a shade over $60 million this weekend, according to Paramount’s Sunday-morning projection. That’s nearly three times what Bumblebee earned on its opening weekend, and well ahead of the $44.7-milion debut of 2017’s The Last Knight. It also handily tops Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, in spite of that film holding on well in its second weekend.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…

Rise of the Beasts’ opening projection is a little ahead of the $58.8 million predicted by our model based solely on its special screening and Thursday preview numbers, which suggests that it’s getting decent word of mouth so far. After a steady decline in popularity for the franchise since 2009’s Revenge of the Fallen, it looks as though Bumblebee was something of a turning point both creatively and financially.

Internationally, Rise of the Beasts will debut with around $40 million China, the second-best opening weekend for a Hollywood film in 2023, although it’s 32% below Bumblebee. In other territories, the film will open with around $70 million, which is 36% ahead of Bumblebee. Its strongest openings are coming in Mexico ($7.3 million), Indonesia ($5.3 million) and Peru, where it will have the best weekend of 2023 so far with $5 million.

A couple of other films of note this weekend: The Boogeyman will have a strong second-weekend hold, declining 44% to $6.917 million. It will finish the weekend with around $24.7 million so far. A24’s Past Lives enters the top ten with a 124% weekend-to-weekend increase as it expands from 4 to 26 theaters.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com