2023 market prediction: new announcements, John Wick, push prediction up to $9.2 billion

March 31, 2023

Newly-confirmed release dates, including for Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken and The Book of Clarence, lift the total number of wide releases expected in 2023 up to 107 in this month’s theatrical market update. That, plus an outsized debut by John Wick: Chapter 4 (offset by a very disappointing performance by Shazam! Fury of the Gods) takes our overall prediction for the year up by $200 million to a respectable $9.2 billion.

Subscribe to our Bankability and Box Office report for full details, or read on for an overview of what our model thinks of the next 12 months in movie theaters…

Here’s how 2023 looks compared to the last four years. The bars in the chart estimate the total box office for all films released in a particular month from 2019 to the end of 2023.

The newly-confirmed release dates largely fall in the mid- to late-Summer timeframe, which had looked very empty at the beginning of the year. While October still looks thin, August and September have enough new releases to give business a chance of getting back to normal throughout the Summer. That’s a huge win for the industry, as long as films like Ruby Gillman, Talk to Me, The Book of Clarence, Ordinary Angels and Dumb Money can live up to their potential.

To be clear, none of these films need to be huge hits. A steady supply of films that will encourage filmgoers to make going to the theater a habit again is what will take the market back above $10 billion though, and it looks as though the studios will deliver on that this year.

Shazam!’s poor performance is obviously a major disappointment this month, but it’s more than counteracted by the new announcements and John Wick’s fantastic debut. Creed III also deserves credit for punching above its weight.

In general, the regular appearance of movies worth watching over the past month or two has clearly helped the overall strength of the market…

We’re not quite back up to the audience levels we saw by the middle of last Summer, but the market is hovering around 80% of the pre-pandemic level at the moment. This time last year it was something around 70% of usual, so things are looking promising as we head towards the critical late Spring and early Summer season.

Once more, the model thinks Barbie is the movie most likely to overperform expectations in the coming months. AIR, which hits theaters on Wednesday, April 5, is new in second place on this chart, replacing John Wick: Chapter 4, which the model was rightly high on this time last month. AIR isn’t likely to do huge business as it goes up against Super Mario Bros., which is also showing strong audience interest ahead of its release.

For full details of which movies our audience tracking suggests will have breakout performances (including some early signs of life for Mission: Impossible, Dead Reckoning), a list of predictions for all movies coming out in wide release between now and the end of 2023, month-by-month details, plus the latest updates to our Bankability values for acting and creative talent in the industry, purchase or subscribe to our Bankability and Box Office report.

Methodology

Our market prediction is based on the same model as the weekend predictions that we’ve been running since theaters started reopening towards the end of 2020. We are now running the prediction model for every announced wide release on the release schedule and estimating the size of the market as a whole by assuming a relatively small amount of additional revenue from limited releases. The prediction for each movie is based on six factors:

The performance of similar films in recent years, and cast and crew Bankability. So far as possible, the model uses films in the same genre released by the same distributor as points of comparison. The predicted performance of franchise films is based on previous releases in the franchise. Cast and crew Bankability is weighted more heavily for non-franchise than for franchise films.

The current state of the theatrical market. We update our model after each weekend with a wide release to estimate what proportion of formerly-regular moviegoers are currently going to theaters.

Adjustments for specific genres. The pandemic has affected different segments of the audience in different ways. We are currently adjusting movies with romantic content down by 20%, but not adjusting any other genres.

Adjustments for day-and-date streaming releases. This was taken into account when films were being simultaneously released on HBO Max and in theaters on the same day. Since that’s no longer happening, and we haven’t seen a measurable impact from films being released simultaneously on Peacock and Paramount+, no adjustment is currently being made. We are continuing to monitor this aspect of the industry.

Potential breakout hits. Films that have the potential to break out beyond what the model otherwise predicts are identified and their predictions increased accordingly. These films are currently selected based on our measurement of audience interest.

The expected recovery of the theatrical market as the pandemic is brought under control. The model assumes that the market will settle back to 90% of its pre-pandemic size at the end of the recovery. Growth was slow at first, accelerated as more people become confident in going to theaters, and then will slow down as more cautious moviegoers take time to return to attending. This is the classic ''S-shaped'' curve seen in economics textbooks (and in many cases in the real world). (For more on this see my previous article, How quickly can the box office recover?) Those parameters are likely to be adjusted as the market situation evolves.

- Current release schedule
- Recent release schedule changes
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Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com