Weekend Wrap-Up: The Box Office is in a Deep Sleep
November 12, 2019
It was a weekend to forget with the four new releases earning significantly less than The Grinch opened with last year. Still, the four new releases took the to four spots, meaning there were no powerful holdovers to make up the difference. Midway was the best of the bunch, while Playing with Fire was the biggest positive surprise. Unfortunately, Doctor Sleep missed expectations by a larger margin than those two films beat our predictions, so the good news was drowned out by the bad. Overall, the box office was 5.9% higher than last weekend at $121 million. This is not a reason to celebrate, as last weekend was arguably Halloween weekend, which is one of the worst weekends of the year. More importantly, the weekend was behind the same weekend last year by 28%. 2019 is now behind 2018’s pace by 5.9% or $580 million at $9.32 billion to $9.90 billion. However, and this is important, as bad as 2019 has been doing, we are still ahead of 2017’s pace, both in terms of raw dollars and ticket sales, so there’s no need to panic. While we would prefer to set records every year, being the second best year at the box office is still worth celebrating.
Midway opened with $17.90 million, about 10% above expectations, but that was more than enough to earn first place on the box office chart. Its reviews are mixed, but it did earn an A-rating from CinemaScore, so its target audience clearly liked it more than critics did. Add in a more mature target audience and the upcoming holidays and the film could have long enough legs to be a profitable hit.
Doctor Sleep was much weaker than anticipated earning $14.11 million during its opening weekend. This is barely half our prediction and we were not even the most bullish out there. Its reviews are good, and its B plus rating from CinemaScore is excellent for a horror film, so it is hard to understand this performance.
Playing with Fire opened with $12.72 million over the weekend, giving it third place on the chart. This is better than predicted and a fine start for a live-action family film. On the other hand, its reviews are awful and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, which is terrible for a family film. The holidays should help its legs, but there is also intense competition coming up and I could see a lot of theater owners switching to that film.
Last Christmas was the last of the wide releases earning fourth place with $11.44 million. Its reviews are merely mixed, while it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, so it likely won’t have great legs. That said, it is a Christmas movie, so perhaps some theater owners will keep it around long enough to get a boost from that. I wouldn’t bet on it.
Terminator: Dark Fate rounded out the top five with just $10.81 million for a two-week total of $48.47 million. This film is going to lose a ton of money.
There were a trio of films in the sophomore class that didn’t reach the top five, led by Harriet, which was down 37% to $7.41 million over the weekend for a total of $23.64 million after two. The film could get to $50 million, if and only if it earns some Awards Season success. Motherless Brooklyn also held on very well down 38%; unfortunately, it opened much weaker so it only managed $2.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $7.33 million. Arctic Dogs collapsed down 63% to just $1.07 million over the weekend for a total of $4.84 million after ten days of release. The film could have earned $4.84 million during its opening day and it still wouldn’t have been a box office success. I will be shocked if the film is in more than a few hundred theaters on Friday.
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Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Motherless Brooklyn, Arctic Dogs, Terminator: Dark Fate, Midway, Doctor Sleep, Harriet, Last Christmas, Playing with Fire