Weekend Estimates: Terminator Tops Chart, but is Far from Lethal
November 3, 2019
As expected, Terminator: Dark Fate is going to open in first place over the weekend. Unfortunately, it is failing to match even the low end of expectations with an estimate of $29 million during its opening weekend. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are not great, but they are better than this opening. The film is doing much better internationally with an estimated $$72.9 million debut, including an estimated $30 million opening in China. However, that’s not enough. The film needs close to $500 million worldwide to break even and since the only major market left to debut in is Japan, it’s not going to get there.
Joker continues to have impressive legs, earning an estimated $13.93 million over the weekend for a running tally of $299.61 million after a month of release. Internationally, the film is pulling in $37.0 million on 10,600 screens in 79 markets for totals of $634.4 million internationally and $934.0 million worldwide. Getting to $1 billion is practically a sure thing at this point.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil is right behind with $12.2 million over the weekend for a running tally of $84.3 million after four weeks of release. It is on pace for over $100 million domestically. The film has already made $298.9 million internationally, including $40.5 million this past weekend. It needs about $400 million worldwide to break even any time soon and it looks like it won’t have any real trouble getting there. On the other hand, it needed at least $500 million worldwide to really justify a sequel. Perhaps it will be a really popular film on the new Disney Plus streaming service, enough that Disney will want to invest more in the franchise.
Harriet is earning an estimated $12.0 million during its opening weekend, which is well above expectations, and also a little better than projections based on Friday’s estimates, meaning the word-of-mouth is even better than anticipated. It did earn good reviews, but it is its A plus rating from CinemaScore that’s the real reason it is doing so well.
The Addams Family is in fifth place with an estimated $8.50 million over the weekend for a four-week running tally of $85.30 million. This is a much better hold than anticipated, especially since the movie was a great fit for Halloween and this is the post-Halloween weekend. I have no doubt the film will reach $100 million domestically, not a bad run for a film that cost just $24 million to make. Granted, it isn’t doing as well internationally, but it could break even just on its domestic theatrical numbers, depending on its advertising budget.
Motherless Brooklyn is struggling with an estimated opening weekend of $3.65 million. Its low theater count is the only thing preventing this opening from being a complete disaster. Its theater average is low enough that, combined its its reviews, it will have very short legs.
Arctic Dogs bounced back much better than expected on Saturday, helping it earn an estimated $3.1 million during its opening weekend. However, its reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore strongly suggest this will be the last bit of good news for the film.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Motherless Brooklyn, Arctic Dogs, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Terminator: Dark Fate, The Addams Family, Joker, Harriet