Friday Estimates: Holiday Season Starts Without a Lot of Cheer
November 2, 2019
Terminator: Dark Fate opened in first place on Friday, but it only made $10.6 million, well below expectations. Its reviews and its B plus from CinemaScore are good, but not great, meaning it won’t have the legs needed to overcome this slow start. Look for about $28 million domestically this weekend. Early reports have it performing better internationally with a likely $30 million debut in China, but again, this is below expectations and not enough given the film’s $185 million production budget.
Harriet opened in second place with $3.91 million; however, it is a new release, so it won’t stay there long, as there are two holdovers very close behind. That said, it earned a stellar A plus from CinemaScore, so clearly audiences loved the movie a lot more than critics did. This should give the movie strong enough legs to earn close to $12 million during its opening weekend. This still isn’t a lot, but it is significantly better than our prediction, and might be enough to keep it going as Awards Season heats up.
Joker was next with $3.84 million over the weekend, putting it on pace for between $13 million and $14 million over the weekend. This is enough to put the film within $1 million of the $300 million mark by the end of the weekend.
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil was right behind with $3.14 million. Since it is a family film, it will bounce back more on Saturday, potentially earning second place on the daily chart. On the other hand, the gap is likely too much to overtake Joker over the full weekend and it should earn between $12 million and $13 million from Friday through Sunday.
Zombieland: Double Tap and The Addams Family were neck-and-neck with $2.02 million and $1.98 million. However, since The Addams Family is a family film, it will bounce back the most and grab fifth place over the full weekend, $9 million to $7 million. This does mean The Addams Family will very likely earn $100 million domestically.
Motherless Brooklyn is struggling with just $1.06 million during its opening day. Its reviews aren’t good enough to overcome this slow start and it will barely avoid the Mendoza Line with just under $3 million.
Sadly, $3 million is blockbuster numbers compared to what Arctic Dogs opened with. The animated family film failed to open in the top ten with just $700,000 on Friday, putting it on pace for less than $2 million during its opening weekend. This is not only below the Mendoza Line, the film didn’t even get halfway to that mark. Furthermore, its reviews are only beginning to trickle in, and it only managed a B minus from CinemaScore. If a family film earns less than an A minus, it is a sign that it won’t earn long legs. Earning a B minus is a disaster. The film will disappear from theaters as soon as theater owners are contractual able to drop it.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Motherless Brooklyn, Zombieland: Double Tap, Arctic Dogs, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Terminator: Dark Fate, The Addams Family, Joker, Harriet