Weekend Predictions: Will Abominable Live Up to Its Name or will it be ... Bominable?

September 26, 2019

Abominable

The last weekend of September has been a great week to release a second-tier animated film and there have been several $100 million hits released this week in the past. This year, Abominable is hoping to succeed in this role. It does have a lot going for it, including no competition, direct or otherwise, and reviews that are, while not spectacular, certainly a selling point. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t grown the way it should. This weekend last year, Night School led the way with Smallfoot having a strong second place opening. Unfortunately, it looks like 2019’s small winning streak will come to an end, because it is unlikely Abominable will match last year’s number one film. It might not even match last year’s second place film.

Abominable has a lot going for it at the box office. It is an animated film opening on a weekend that is historically a good time to release films like this. Its reviews, while not spectacular, are on pace to be rated Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Finally, there is no competition from any other wide releases this week and the last family film to come out was The Angry Birds Movie 2, which came out more than a month ago. Even The Lion King was finally knocked out of the top five last week. On the other hand, the buzz isn’t great. Granted, it is hard to judge family films based on their buzz, as their target audience isn’t exactly the type to tweet about upcoming films, but one still expects more talk than we’ve heard. There’s a chance the film will open below $20 million this weekend, which would be a real disappointment. On the other hand, we’ve had a couple of films open above expectations the last two weeks, so perhaps this tread will continue and Abominable will earn more than $25 million. I fear the low end is more likely than the high end and I’m going with an opening weekend of $22 million.

Downton Abbey opened much faster than anticipated last weekend and thanks to its reviews, its A from CinemaScore, and its target audience, it should have a better than average hold. In fact, it should fall less than 50% to $16 million over the weekend. This is more than enough to keep it on pace for $100 million domestically.

There should be a close race for third place between Ad Astra and Hustlers with both films aiming at just a hair over $10 million. I think Ad Astra has the slight advantage here, a very slight advantage. It did earn more last weekend, but Hustlers did surpass it on the daily chart. Additionally, films usually have their largest drop-off during their second weekend of release, at least until they start shedding theaters at an accelerated pace, so that gives Hustlers the advantage going forward. I think the two films will change places on the daily chart over the weekend and they might even change places when comparing the weekend estimates to the final results.

There should also be a close race for fifth place, this time between It: Chapter Two and Rambo: Last Blood. Last Blood has maintained its lead on the daily chart, but it is entering its sophomore weekend and that usually means a deep decline, so Chapter Two will likely overtake it during the next three days. It should be close with the two films earning just over $9 million and just under $9 million respectively.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Abominable, The Lion King, The Angry Birds Movie 2, Ad Astra, It: Chapter Two, Hustlers, Downton Abbey, Rambo: Last Blood