Weekend Estimates: Dumbo Tops Chart with $45 million
March 31, 2019
Dumbo will open in first place with over the weekend with an estimated $45.0 million. This is lower than expected and not a strong opening for a film that reportedly cost $170 million to make. It did marginally better internationally, earning $71.0 million, but it is also playing in all major markets, so it has almost nowhere to expand at this point. Going forward, the film should have decent legs, in part because it is a family film. Also, while its reviews are not going to be a major asset, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its word-of-mouth is going to be better than its critical reception. However, unless it has really long legs, it is going to be a real challenge to pay for that production budget any time soon. Part of the reason I think this film is struggling is “Franchise Fatigue”. Granted, I’m not sure I would call Disney’s Live Action Remakes a real franchise, not unless they start doing some crossovers to unite the universe. (Don’t do that. Please don’t do that.) However, I do think it is susceptible to the same fatigue and this is a real problem for Disney, because they have two more major releases for this year, plus about a dozen further releases in various stages of development.
If the estimates hold, then Us will match expectations perfectly with $33.61 million. The film already has more than $100 million and it is on pace to top Get Out domestically. It will do the same internationally, with a $22.6 million weekend haul and a $46.3 million two-week running tally. This includes a first place, $6.9-million opening in South Korea, which is currently tied for the second best opening for a Hollywood horror film in that market, behind Get Out. (Final numbers might put it in third place, behind Split.)
Captain Marvel is holding on better than expected with an estimated $20.5 million weekend haul. Its running tally is $353.8 million domestically and it should have no trouble getting to $400 million domestically. Internationally, it is adding $26.4 million over the weekend for totals of $636.8 million internationally and $990.6 million worldwide. It will get to $1 billion this week and if Avengers: Endgame can give it a boost, then $1.1 billion becomes a lot more likely.
Five Feet Apart is in position to earn fourth place with an estimated $6.25 million. This is better than anticipated and it means it should reach $50 million domestically. It might start losing theaters too rapidly to get there, but I don’t think that will be a problem.
Unplanned is currently in fifth place, but it could rise to fourth if its final numbers top its $6.15 million estimate. This is the biggest hit from Pure Flix since the God’s Not Dead 2. The reviews are mixed, which is better than most Pure Flix films manage, while it earned an A plus from CinemaScore, on par with most Faith-based films.
Hotel Mumbai is also beating expectations with an estimated $3.16 million. The film earned the best reviews of the weekend and that could help its legs. On the other hand, it’s not going to expand significantly after this result.
The Beach Bum is bombing with an estimated $1.8 million in just over 1,000 theaters. Theater owners will be looking to drop this film before its reviews have a real impact on its legs.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, The Beach Bum, Us, Five Feet Apart, Hotel Mumbai, Unplanned