Weekend Estimates: Halloween Scores Franchise-Best Start, Second-Best October Debut
October 21, 2018
According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here.
A Star is Born is projected to earn $19.3 million over its third weekend of release for a running tally $126.38 million. Its international haul appears to be $22.8 million in 75 markets for totals of $74.7 million internationally and $201.1 million worldwide. This is already enough to cover its entire production budget probably its entire advertising budget.
Venom should also match expectations, as Sony is estimating an $18.11 million during its third weekend of release, for a total of $171.13 million so far.
Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween is also expected to match expectations perfectly with $9.72 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $28.81 million. It will match its $35 million production budget by this time next week.
It’s looks like First Man fell a little faster than anticipated, down 46% to $8.57 million for a two-week total of $30.00 million. Internationally, it has managed $13.4 million in 43 markets for a two-week total of $25.5 million. The film cost $60 million to make, so this is not a good run so far. It isn’t a bomb, but it isn’t living up to its potential.
The Hate U Give is projected to top the high-end expectations with $7.5 million over the weekend for a total of $10.6 million, including its limited release run. Given its award-worthy reviews and its stunning A plus from CinemaScore, it could stick around in theaters for weeks.
Can You Ever Forgive Me? was the best limited release that we currently have numbers for. At the moment, it is expected to earn $150,000 in 5 theaters for an average of $30,000. It wasn’t the only film projected to open in the $10,000 club, as The Price of Everything is estimated to earn $17,280 in its lone theater.
- Halloween Comparisons
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- The Hate U Give Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Venom, Halloween, A Star is Born, Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, First Man, The Hate U Give, The Price of Everything, Halloween