Weekend Estimates: Young Women Power Death Day to Victory
October 15, 2017
This weekend will be another winner for horror movies, with Happy Death Day powering into first place with a projected $26.5 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning numbers. That puts it miles ahead of Blade Runner 2049, which failed to broaden its audience this weekend, and is down 54% to $15.1 million, for $60.6 million in total.
The virtue of having a compelling female protagonist is borne out by Death Day’s audience breakdown: 54 female and 65 under the age of 25. Jessica Rothe, whose last role was a small part in La La Land, and has the lead in January release Forever My Girl, holds the film together, and is clearly a star on the rise. Word of mouth will be interesting for this one, with two weeks to go until Halloween. That’s a long time for a horror movie to hold on as a significant box office force, but this could be a film to do it.
Also posting respectable numbers this weekend is The Foreigner. The Jackie Chan/Pierce Brosnan action movie is another film that STX Entertainment is distributing without significant financial exposure (it’s a Chinese-United Kingdom co-production that’s going to pick up the majority of its earnings overseas). Its $12.8 million opening means the company will recoup its marketing costs from the theatrical run, and move into a profit when the film debuts on video.
Things look somewhat shakier for Marshall, which is opening with about $3 million, per Open Road’s projection. It is relying much more on domestic earnings, and looks like it won’t earn enough at the box office to take much of a bite out of its marketing costs, in spite of excellent reviews. Likewise, Professor Marston & the Wonder Women, which is doing even worse—$737,000 from 1,229 theaters on opening weekend is a disaster for Annapurna Pictures. Both films are getting terrific reviews from critics, but it will take a word-of-mouth miracle to save them at the box office.
Also posting a modest opening, given pre-release expectations, is Goodbye Christopher Robin, which is expected to make about $56,000 from nine locations. An average of $6,222 is decent enough, but much less than one would expect for a film that started out with Oscar aspirations.
There are a couple of brighter outcomes among limited releases. The Florida Project continues to power ahead, with $400,000 or so projected from 33 theaters by A24, and Human Flow, Ai Weiwei’s documentary for Amazon Studios, expected to bring in $47,000 from three theaters on its debut.
- Happy Death Day Comparisons
- The Foreigner Comparisons
- Professor Marston and The Wonder Women Comparisons
- Marshall Comparisons
- Blade Runner 2049 Comparisons
- It Comparisons
- The Mountain Between Us Comparisons
- American Made Comparisons
- Kingsman: The Golden Circle Comparisons
- The Lego Ninjago Movie Comparisons
- My Little Pony: The Movie Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Blade Runner 2049, Marshall, Human Flow, Goodbye Christopher Robin, Happy Death Day, The Foreigner, Professor Marston & The Wonder Women, The Florida Project, Pierce Brosnan, Jackie Chan, Ai Weiwei, Jessica Rothe