Weekend Estimates: Batman Shades Fifty
February 12, 2017
A slighty-worse-than-expected performance from The Lego Batman Movie and a slightly-better-than-expected weekend for Fifty Shades Darker is creating a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend. Lego Batman will win in the end, with Warner Bros. projecting $55.6 million for the weekend, but Fifty Shades Darker won on Friday, and won’t be far behind in the end. Universal pegs the film at $46.8 million over three days.
Lego Batman’s performance is 20% behind the debut of The Lego Movie on the same weekend three years ago, which counts as a sizable disappointment, given that sequels to hit movies usually have better starts. The film is getting great reviews, should have good legs, and poor weather on the East Coast may have been a mitigating factor, so a total north of $200 million domestically isn’t out of the question by any means. My guess is that it will just fall short of that mark, which continues a troubling trend for Warner Bros.. In spite of releasing more films than any other studio, it just doesn’t seem to be able to produce a breakout hit. They have several more shots this year, including Kong: Skull Island in a month’s time, Wonder Woman in June, Dunkirk in July, Blade Runner 2049 in October, and Justice League in November. That’s five more chances to have a $1 billion global hit this year—something the studio hasn’t had since The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey back in 2012/13. Lego Batman wasn’t expected to hit those heights, but the studio would have hoped to see it top the $458 million earned by the first film globally. With a $37 million opening overseas, that figure is looking a distant prospect right now.
Back in 2015, Fifty Shades of Grey marked the beginning of Universal’s annus mirabilis, as the studio churned a series of outsized hits, including billion-dollar-box-office makers Jurassic World, Furious 7, and Minions. Fifty Shades itself went to make $571 million worldwide, with $166 million at home, and an extraordinary $405 million overseas. This weekend’s domestic debut, at $46.8 million, suggests a final total here of around $100 million, assuming the film has similar legs to its predecessor. There is room for a little optimism on that front, with Valentine’s Day falling on a Tuesday this year, and likely to boost box office receipts (Valentine’s Day was on the opening Saturday for the film in 2015, which inflated its opening weekend). But this is a film that people tend to either love or hate, and the lovers will mostly see it in the first week of release. Internationally, it will open with $100.1 million for the weekend, per Universal, which compares to a $158 million debut for the first film. That suggests a final international total of around $250 million, and $350 million worldwide—more than enough to make the film profitable and set the studio up for the franchise finale in 2018—but also well behind the performance of the original.
John Wick: Chapter Two may garner fewer headlines this weekend, but it too is off to a great start, with Lionsgate projecting $30 million. The first film in the franchise debuted with $14.4 million, and only made $43 million in total at the box office. It was a hit on video though (our tracking estimates it made $23 million on DVD and Blu-ray, and plenty more on VOD and physical disc rentals), which set the sequel up for an excellent performance out of the gate. It’s a well-timed release, as it provides some counter-programming for Valentine’s Day, and for the upcoming Oscars.
Two limited releases stand out this weekend. KEDi is enjoying a remarkable debut at the Metrograph theater in New York, setting a weekend record for both the theater and for distributor, Oscilloscope Pictures, with $40,510 expected over three days. A United Kingdom isn’t quite setting the world on fire in the same way, but Fox Searchlight will be happy with a $70,000 opening weekend from four theaters, for an average of $17,500.
- The Lego Batman Movie comparison chart
- Fifty Shades Darker comparison chart
- John Wick: Chapter Two comparison chart
- Rings comparison chart
- The Space Between Us comparison chart
- Split comparison chart
- A Dog’s Purpose comparison chart
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Lego Batman Movie, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, A United Kingdom, KEDi, John Wick