Wednesday Estimates: Moana Freezes Frozen with Record-Setting $15.68 million
November 24, 2016
Moana started its box office run in first place, which is no shock. However, it did so with an opening day of $15.68 million. This is the new record for the biggest Wednesday before Thanksgiving, topping the previous record-holder, Frozen, which managed $15.16 million back in 2013. Frozen is also the biggest animated hit worldwide, so I don’t think using it is a good idea. Instead, let’s use The Good Dinosaur, which opened this time last year with $9.76 million. If the two films have the same legs, then Moana will earn $62.90 million / $89.09 million over the three-day / five day weekend. That’s a little higher than predicted and it might be too cautious. Moana’s reviews are 97% positive, while its CinemaScore is a solid A. The Good Dinosaur’s reviews were only 77% positive, although it too earned an A from CinemaScore. Hopefully the reviews will translate into better legs and an even bigger opening weekend.
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them was pushed into second place with $11.0 million, which is 24% lower than Deathly Hallows, Part I managed on the same day during its run. It is also a little lower than predicted, but not by enough to panic. It could still bounce back and earn $40 million / $58 million over the weekend and if not, it should come relatively close.
The best of the rest of the new releases was Allied, which pulled in just $2.7 million on Wednesday. Its reviews are good, but not great, while its CinemaScore was a mere B. Anything less than a B+ tends to mean bad legs. Look for just under $11 million over the three-day weekend for a five-day opening of just over $15 million.
Bad Santa 2 is a bomb with just $1.6 million during its first day of release. Add in bad reviews and a mere C+ from CinemaScore and there’s little reason to be optimistic with this film. On the other hand, it should still come close to our low expectations with $5 million / $8 million during its opening weekend.
Rules Don’t Apply. There’s nothing positive to say about this film’s debut, as it only managed $315,000 on Wednesday. The film earned mixed reviews and a B minus from CinemaScore, which won’t help or hurt its legs. There’s a good chance it will earn barely more than $2 million during its five-day opening.
- Moana Comparisons
- Allied Comparisons
- Bad Santa 2 Comparisons
- Rules Don’t Apply Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Allied, Bad Santa 2, Rules Don’t Apply