Oscar Contest - Category Highlight - Supporting Acting Roles
February 17, 2008
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role and Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting, regardless if they are for supporting roles, lead roles, or even part of a cast.)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Ruby Dee for American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan for Atonement
Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton for Michael Clayton
Conclusion: A very tight category; none of the five actresses can be considered runaway favorites, nor can any of them be considered out of the running. Cate Blanchett has the most accolades in her career so far, Ruby Dee is the sentimental favorite, Saoirse Ronan outperformed every adult actor in Atonement, Amy Ryan stood out in the best movie on this list, while Tilda Swinton is the most balanced nominee. Any of these ladies could win, but only one will and that will be... I have no idea. I've gone over the list and all the data more than a dozen times and I can't figure out who the favorite is. Cate Blanchett has a slight, slight edge, but I wouldn't put money on it.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton
Conclusion: Nearly every award Javier Bardem has been nominated for, he has won. Next Sunday he will add another win for No Country for Old Men. In fact, I would go so far as to say he has better odds of winning this Oscar than the other four actors have combined.
Prize Highlights
With each category highlight, we will also take a look at the prizes we will be giving away for the Oscar Prediction contest, as well as some of the prizes we will have when our regular Box Office Prediction contests start back up after the Oscars.
This week we look at Twin Peaks - The Definitive Gold Box Edition. Twin Peaks was a show that was made for the TV on DVD era. Its complex storylines demanded repeat viewing to allow the audience to pick up of things they missed the first time around... So it's a real shame that it came out a decade before TV on DVD started to really take off. At least the show finally has a DVD set that is worthy of the name and this massive 10-disc set is a must have for all fans of the show.
As for the Box Office prediction prize... We will have a glut of prizes to get through in the coming weeks, and this includes posters from Never Back Down, and we will be giving away full-size and mini-posters. Never Back Down is an action film set in the world of underground Mixed Martial Arts. The film stars Sean Faris as Jake Tyler, a new kid in school who is trying to fit in when he is humiliated at a party by the school bully. But from that incident he is introduced to a fellow classmate, who in turn introduces him to his Mentor. Never Back Down opens nationwide on March 14th.
Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There
Tomatometer Score: 78% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe, two Independent Spirit Awards, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Four Oscars, six Golden Globes, one Independent Spirit Awards, eight SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, one Golden Globe, and two SAG
Notes: Cate Blanchett is the most acclaimed actress on this list, in fact, she's earned two Oscar nominations this year alone. However, her pervious work will not help her, in fact, it will hurt her chances to win here since I'm Not There pales in comparison to most of the films she's earned her previous awards from. That said, she did win a Golden Globe and the competition isn't particularly strong and she take home her second Oscar next weekend.
Tomatometer Score: 79% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Ruby Dee could be considered the sentimental favorite in this year's contest as she has been acting for more than 70 years and this is her first Oscar nomination, and she did win the SAG, which is a good omen. Then again, all of this was true of Gloria Stuart a decade ago with Titanic and she didn't take home that award. Her previous win for the role does bode well for her chances on Oscar night, but this is a close race and it is hard to count out any of her competition.
Tomatometer Score: 82% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Saoirse Ronan is just too young to win this award. We've seen time and time again Oscar voters passing over the younger stars for veterans. I believe they justify this by saying stars like Saoirse Ronan have a lifetime ahead of them to find great roles and they will have a chance to win again someday. ... Oscar voters also tend to try give veteran actors Oscars for a late role to make up for passing them by when they were younger. ... It would be better if they just voted based on the current performance, but it is impossible to take politics out of this as long as people are the ones voting. I would be surprised if she won, but I doubt that would be the biggest shock of the night.
Tomatometer Score: 93% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Amy Ryan gave an incredibly performance with a very difficult role in the best-reviewed movie on this list... Yet somehow there is no buzz that she will win. (I think that is because the film didn't live up to expectations at the box office.) Personally, she would be my pick for the Oscar, but looking at the evidence, I just don't think she will bring it home.
Tomatometer Score: 90% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Golden Globe, one Independent Spirit Award, and one SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: It just doesn't seem like Michael Clayton's year. The film year 16 major nominations this year, but so far has gone zero for nine. To compound matters, it doesn't seem like a solid favorite to win any of the seven Oscars it is up for either. Tilda Swinton could win here, but she has missed out twice so far this year, and she will likely stretch that streak to three this Sunday.
Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Tomatometer Score: 75% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This movie is buster Oscar bait and while Casey Affleck while arguably the best part of The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, overall the critical appeal isn't strong enough to win awards.
Tomatometer Score: 94% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe and two SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, two Golden Globes, and one Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: No Country for Old Men is one of the big players this award season and Javier Bardem has been winning practically everything he's been nominated for this year. While it is not impossible that he could be snubbed during the award ceremony next weekend, he is the odds on favorite to pick up his first Oscar.
Tomatometer Score: 83% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, two Golden Globes, three Independent Spirit Awards, and six SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, one Golden Globe, One Independent Spirit Award, and one SAG
Notes: Charlie Wilson's War was a box office disappointment and Philip Seymour Hoffman as recently won an Oscar for a much better film than this. Combined with Javier Bardem's winning streak so far this year, and there's little reason to think this film will take home any hardware.
Tomatometer Score: 83% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Hal Holbrook has been acting for a long, long time and the fact that he hasn't picked up any major awards for his movie work is a bit of a shock. (He has been nominated for an Emmy twelve times winning five of them.) Had he been nominated several times in the past and still hadn't won yet, I would give him better odds this time around as Oscar voters like to correct past mistakes. But as it is, he's a long shot to take home the trophy.
Tomatometer Score: 90% positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globe and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, one Golden Globe, one Independent Spirit Award, and four SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Independent Spirit Award and two SAG
Notes: Michael Clayton has been a major player this awards season, at least when it comes to nominations. So far it has been shut out during the award ceremonies and sadly for Tom Wilkinson that is unlikely to change next weekend.
Filed under: No Country for Old Men, Charlie Wilson’s War, Atonement, Michael Clayton, Never Back Down, Gone Baby Gone, Into the Wild, I’m Not There, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, American Gangster