Weekend Predictions: Will New Year Start in the Black
January 2, 2015
The new year starts with just one new release, The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death. It's a horror film, which is a genre that is becoming common for early year releases. This is probably because these films are relatively cheap to produce, so they don't need a strong box office to break even. For example, this weekend last year, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones, a horror film that cost $5 million to make, was the only wide release. I don't think Angel of Death will top The Marked Ones, but last weekend was strong in the year-over-year comparison, so perhaps the holdovers can help 2015 start on a winning note.
It seems very likely that The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies will earn the hat trick finishing in first place for the third weekend in a row. Look for a weekend haul of $23 million over the weekend, giving it close to $225 million in its run.
Into the Woods started out faster than expected and with its reviews, it should hold over better than most other films in the top ten. Look for $21 million over the weekend, which won't be enough to get to $100 million by end of business on Sunday, but it will be close.
Likewise, Unbroken got off to a faster than expected start and it is well on its way to $100 million. It should add another $20 million over the weekend putting it north of $90 million after just 11 days of release. It won't win Oscars like some thought it would, but it will break even and the studio is more concerned about that.
Up next is Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb. This film isn't living up to its predecessors, but it also isn't bombing. It should earn fourth place with $14 million over the weekend, which will put it about one week away from the century mark.
Annie will round out the top five with about $12 million. It is likely won't get to $100 million, but it will come close enough to be considered a financial hit.
The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death will likely miss the top five during its opening weekend, as there's not a lot of buzz behind this movie. Additionally, the reviews are weak, even for a horror movie. Finally, while the film is a sequel, its predecessor was only a midlevel hit, so it can't rely on name recognition either. On the high end, it might compete for fourth place with $13 million. On the low end, it will made about $8 million. I think it will top $10 million over the weekend, but barely.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb, Annie, Into the Woods, Unbroken, The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death, Night at the Museum