Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for April 9th, 2019

April 11th, 2019

We’ve hit the summer doldrums on the home market, as there are no major winter releases that haven’t come out and none of 2019’s early releases were amazing, so there’s going to be a large gap between monster hits. One of the biggest hits is On the Basis of Sex, which is also one of the best. Another contender for Pick of the Week is Mirai while last week’s Archer: The Complete Season Nine: Danger Island would have been a contender last week, if the screener had arrived on time. In the end, it wasn’t a particularly close race and the Oscar-nominated movie won. More...

Home Market Releases for March 26th, 2019

March 27th, 2019

It is an amazing week for home releases. Not only do we have the biggest hit of last winter on this week’s list, but Aquaman is actually worth owning. That’s only the second time I can say that about the D.C.E.U. Additionally, there are a huge number of contenders for Pick of the Week, ranging from Oscar contenders (If Beale Street Could Talk on Blu-ray Combo Pack); limited releases (The Miseducation of Cameron Post: Special Edition Blu-ray); animated imports (My Hero Academia: Two Heroes on Blu-ray); TV movie aimed at teens (Kim Possible on DVD); and classics (For A Few Dollars More: Special Edition Blu-ray). It was an exceptionally close call, but in the end, I went with If Beale Street Could Talk. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Aquaman Ends the Year on Top

January 2nd, 2019

Due to the holidays, there was a delay in getting final numbers from major studios for the weekend box office, but the last of them have finally arrived. Aquaman dominated with $52.11 million over the three-day weekend, while it cracked $200 million on New Year’s Day. Mary Poppings Returns isn’t matching expectations, but it is still having a profitable run. Meanwhile, both Bumblebee and Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse are overcoming incredible competition to dig out profitable runs of their own. Overall, the weekend box office hit $188 million, which is 6.2% higher than last weekend, and while it is 3.5% lower than the same weekend last year, this is still better than expected. It will take a long time to get the final yearly results, not until the MPAA’s state of the industry report in April, but preliminary results have 2018 beating 2017 by 8.4% or $920 million at $11.91 billion to $10.99 billion. More...

Weekend Estimates: Aquaman and Entire Top Five have a Repeat Performance

December 30th, 2018

It has been an even more predictable weekend than expected, as every film in the top five finished in the same order as last weekend. This includes Aquaman topping the chart with an estimated $51.55 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $188.79 million. It will cross $200 million shortly and overtake A Star is Born as Warner Bros.’ biggest domestic hit of the year. Internationally, the film added $85.4 million this weekend to push its global running tally to just shy of $750 million at $748.8 million. It is already ahead of Man of Steel and Suicide Squad on the DCEU chart and should soon step into first place. More...

Friday Estimates: Aquaman Rises with the Tides

December 29th, 2018

The Friday box office estimates are almost exactly as predicted, with most films out-pacing expectations by a small amount. At least as far as the top five is concerned. The lower films struggled more. For example, Aquaman led the way with $17.1 million putting it on pace for $52 million over the weekend. The film will become Warner Bros.’ second film released in 2018 to get to the $200 million mark (A Star is Born quietly got there before Christmas.) but it might have to wait till the new year to get there. Internationally, the film has already cracked $500 million with a running tally of $511.8 million as of the end of business on Friday. More...

Weekend Predictions: Aquaman Will Celebrate the New Year on Top

December 28th, 2018

It’s the weekend after Christmas and as is the holiday tradition, there are no new releases this week. I guess you could technically call Holmes and Watson and Vice new releases, but they’ve been out since Tuesday. This means there won’t be much new news to talk about. Aquaman will dominate, while Mary Poppins Returns will bounce back, as will most other family fair. I think the same five films that appeared in the top five last weekend will appear in the top five this weekend. Holmes and Watson might not collapse and could grab a spot in the top five, but I personally wouldn’t bet on it. This weekend last year, Star Wars: The Last Jedi barely stayed ahead of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, as both films earned more than $50 million. Aquaman has close to a 50/50 chance of earning $50 million, but the rest of the films will be well back resulting in 2018 ending on a losing note. That said, it should be relatively close and 2018 has already topped last year’s final box office by a significant margin. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Box Office Christmas Clean-up

December 27th, 2018

The Christmas holiday is over for most people, although it is not entirely over for some studios. This is making getting all of the box office details much harder to do. In fact, we are still limited to estimated for more than half the top five this weekend. We have enough details now to look at the weekend results and the Christmas Day releases and see which are thriving and which are not. Aquaman dominated the charts with just over $100 million so far, including its paid previews. On the other hand, Mary Poppins Returns missed expectations by a substantial margin. It will still break even. The same can be said of Bumblebee, which could usher in a new era of Transformers movies. Overall, the box office rose by 53% from last weekend to $177 million. This is just 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year; however, last year, Christmas Eve fell on a Sunday and Christmas Eve is a dead zone at the box office. We can’t even compare Christmas Day, because landing on a Monday vs. a Tuesday is a huge difference. Next weekend’s comparison will be much easier to make. Year-to-date, and this is up to Boxing Day, 2018 is ahead by 7.7% or $810 million at $11.37 billion to $10.56 billion. This would be an impressive year, even if no more movie tickets were sold after boxing day. More...

Christmas Predictions: Can Sherlock Solve the Case?

December 24th, 2018

Tomorrow is Christmas Day, which is a surprisingly good day to release a movie, and two new films are hoping to take advantage of this. Holmes and Watson is by far the bigger of the two releases, but despite the comedic talent in the movie, its reviews are, well, practically non-existent. There’s only one review and it is negative. Not that long ago, I thought the film would still open with $10 million for the day, as Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly do have box office drawing power. However, the lack of reviews hurts and the buzz isn’t loud enough to compensate. I think $8 million is more likely. More...

Weekend Estimates: Aquaman Easily Tops Weekend Chart, Poppins / Bumblebee Need Long Legs

December 23rd, 2018

Aquaman is the only certifiable hit of the weekend with an estimated opening of $67.4 million over the weekend for a total of $72.1 million including last week’s paid previews. This is not more than we predicted, but it is dominating the chart, because the competition didn’t show up. It should hit $100 million by the end of Christmas Day. Its reviews are good, but not great, and the same is true of its A minus from CinemaScore. It is also a comic book movie and those tend to have shorter legs, so it might not get as large a multiplier as the average Christmas weekend release, but it should be a large enough hit that Warner Bros. will keep this new direction going for the DCEU. Internationally, it is earning an estimated $91.3 million on 31,930 screens in 70 markets for a three-week total of $410.7 million. Overall, it is tracking ahead of every other film in the DCEU, but a lot of that has to do with China. More...

Friday Estimates: Aquaman Easily Tops Chart, Bumblebee tops Struggling Mary Poppins

December 22nd, 2018

Friday was not as potent as midnight previews led us to believe it would be. That said, Aquaman still had an impressive $28.0 million opening day. This does include the previous night’s $9.0 million in previews, but not last weekend’s $4.7 million in previews, giving the film a $32.7 million running tally. The film’s reviews remain in the overall positive level and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have relatively good legs over the weekend, for a comic book movie. We predicted an opening weekend of $67 million and I think the film will top that, by one or two million dollars. It is more than enough for Warner Bros. to continue with the new direction DCEU is taking. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Aquaman Torpedoes the Competition, Mary Poppins has a Quiet Return

December 21st, 2018

Aquaman earned $9.0 million during Thursday’s previews, which is a little lower than the $11.0 million Wonder Woman opened with. However, the film also had $4.7 million in earlier paid previews, which undoubtedly lowered last night’s figure a little bit. Its reviews continue to be good, but not great, so it won’t have amazing legs over the weekend, but after a start like this, topping Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s $71.56 million haul from last year is a lot more likely. In fact, $80 million over three-days is a realistic goal to aim for. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Aquaman Swim to Victory, or will Mary Poppins Return to Top Spot?

December 19th, 2018

It is a busy week, as there are seven films opening wide over the next seven days. Not all of these will be hits—the competition is just too great for that. However, there could be a real race for Christmas champion this year. Because of its fast start in China and its strong pre-sales numbers, many believe Aquaman will top earlier expectations and earn first place over the three-day weekend. However, I think Mary Poppins Returns will be number one over the full week, partially because it should earn a bigger boost over Christmas, but also because it is opening two days early. Meanwhile, Bumblebee’s surprisingly strong reviews are lifting its box office potential. More...

2018 Preview: December

December 1st, 2018

November turned out to be a really, really good month. I thought 2018’s lead over 2017 would shrink, potentially by $200 million to $300 million. However, the lead actually managed to grow a little bit, thanks to hits like Ralph Breaks the Internet, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Bohemian Rhapsody. December has an equal number of potential hits, led by Mary Poppins Returns, which some think will top $300 million. Additionally, Spider-man Into the Spider-Verse, Aquaman, Bumblebee, and Holmes and Watson all have a realistic shot at $100 million or more. On the other hand, last December was stronger, at least on top. The Last Jedi earned more than $500 million just during December, which is more than any December release this year will earn in total. It could be more than the top two films earn in total. 2018 will win the in year-over-year competition; however, its lead won’t be as large as it is at the start of the month. More...

Welcome to Marwen Trailer

June 21st, 2018

Real-life drama starring Steve Carell, directed by Robert Zemeckis opens November 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...