January 1st, 2017
December box office numbers helped 2016 end on ... a note. The good news and the bad news almost exactly balance out. On the one hand, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story will finish the year with more than $400 million after just 16 days of release. That’s a stunning amount of money that helped 2016 earn a record box office at the domestic market. However, Star Wars: The Force Awakens earned $650 million during December of 2015, so the month lost a lot of its lead over 2015, so much so that ticket sales fell behind last year’s total. The weakness at the end of the year will spill over into 2017, which is terrible news. A slow start could result in the dominant box office story being 2017 struggles compared to 2016. Bad news like this can sometimes become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sadly, 2017 is also going to get off to a slow start when it comes to wide releases / expansions. There are 16 films scheduled to open or expand wide this month and none of them are expected to get to $100 million. It is likely none of them will even get very close. xXx: Return of Xander Cage is expected to be the best of a weak bunch, but I could see it getting beat by one of the five Oscar contenders opening wide this month, if it gets off to a slow start and one of the Oscar contenders starts picking up steam. Hidden Figures got off to a great start on Christmas Day and should it continue to earn Awards Season recognition, including some Oscar nominations, it could be in wide release well into February. Last January wasn’t as busy with 13 films opening or expanding wide over five weeks. Of these, two of them, The Revenant and Kung Fu Panda 3, topped $100 million domestically, while another, Ride Along 2, came close. 2017 is going to get destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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April 1st, 2013
March is over and while it is a little too soon to tell where a few films will end their box office runs, it is clear Oz The Great and Powerful won the month. Some films beat expectations to become midlevel hits, like The Call, but it wasn't a great month at the box office, especially compared to last year. This month, there are only seven wide releases spread over four weeks. Only one of those films, Oblivion, has a shot at being anything more than a midlevel hit. None of the other six releases look like they will come close to $100 million, but none of them look like obvious bombs either. (Although I do have my worries when it comes to Scary Movie 5.) Last April was even weaker with no film earning $100 million, although Think Like a Man did come relatively close. We might actually see growth on the year-over-year comparison. We'd better, because 2013 is behind 2012's pace by a huge margin at the moment and things will get worse when May arrives.
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February 18th, 2013
Fun Size is a live action kids movie with a female star. These tend to struggle at the box office. This one was no exception. Despite opening right before Halloween and having a Halloween theme, the film bombed really hard. It opened well below the Mendoza Line and is one of the weakest openings for a saturation level release of all time. Is the film as bad as its box office performance? Or does it deserve to find a wider audience on the home market?
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October 29th, 2012
It was a really bad weekend for new releases with none of the new films meeting expectations and two of them opening below the Mendoza Line. Argo climbed to top spot over the weekend. It used to be quite common for films to climb to the top of the chart, but the market has changed and opening weekends have become so important, so this feat is now very rare. Cloud Atlas was the best of the new releases, but "Best" here is a dubious title, as it barely grabbed second place. Silent Hill: Revolution 3D barely grabbed fifth place, while the less said about Fun Size and Chasing Mavericks the better. The overall box office collapsed by 28% compared to last week hitting just $93 million. It also fell compared to last year, the box office was down 11%, which is disappointing after a series of wins. However, last year Puss in Boots debuted and it was more of a November release opening a week early. Year-to-date, 2012 is still ahead of 2011 with the margin at $8.71 billion to $8.40 billion, or 3.8%. The goal going forward is to maintain this lead, while any growth would be more than welcome.
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October 25th, 2012
There are four new films coming out in wide release this week and depending on who you ask, there are four films that have a shot at earning first place. Last Friday, I assumed Cloud Atlas would win, but its reviews have taken a major hit and it will likely finish below the overall positive level. This leaves an opening for Silent Hill: Revolution 3D, which is opening in the most theaters, but it has no reviews and direct competition. Argo has been leading the way on the daily chart and there's a chance it will climb into first place this weekend. There is also a chance that Paranormal Activity will retain first place, although it will have to avoid the predicted collapse. So which film will come out on top? I'm not sure. On the other hand, I'm fairly sure the other two wide releases will fail to find a substantial audience. Fun Size is opening in 2,800 theaters, but very few think it will do well. Even making the top five is likely out of the question. Meanwhile, Chasing Mavericks is opening in just over 2,000 theaters and it is another film that will likely miss the top five, maybe even the top ten. Compared to last year, 2012 is in trouble. Puss in Boots opened with just over $34 million and there's a small chance all four wide releases won't make that much combined this weekend. There's almost no chance 2012 will come out ahead, unless at least two of the new releases are much bigger than expected.
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