This graph shows Ewan McGregor’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
It’s the first weekend of February and the only wide release is Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn), the latest installment in the D.C.E.U. There is no question that it will earn first place over the weekend. There is some question about how well it will do during its opening weekend, as ticket pre-sales have been weaker than anticipated. This weekend last year, The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part opened with $34.12 million. Birds of Prey will top that; however, it needs to come close to matching the combined openings of last year’s top two films, The Lego Movie 2 and What Men Want, in order to have a real shot at leading 2020 to a victory in the year-over-year competition. That doesn’t seem as likely as it did last week.
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We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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Still irrevocably scarred by the trauma he endured as a child at the Overlook, Dan Torrance has fought to find some semblance of peace. But that peace is shattered when he encounters Abra, a courageous teenager with her own powerful extrasensory gift, known as the “shine.” Instinctively recognizing that Dan shares her power, Abra has sought him out, desperate for his help against the merciless Rose the Hat and her followers, The True Knot, who feed off the shine of innocents in their quest for immortality. Forming an unlikely alliance, Dan and Abra engage in a brutal life-or-death battle with Rose. Abra’s innocence and fearless embrace of her shine compel Dan to call upon his own powers as never before—at once facing his fears and reawakening the ghosts of the past.
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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Star Wars: The Last Jedi was the biggest box office hit of 2016, both domestically and worldwide. It also earned 91% positive reviews and a solid A from CinemaScore. It is also hated by a minority of very loud, very aggressive people. Are the majority right? Do the minority have a legitimate case to make?
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The original Trainspotting came out 20 years ago and earned amazing reviews and was one of the biggest limited release hits of the year. It was also not a film that usually gets a sequel. T2 Trainspotting failed to live up to the original at the box office, but does that mean it is a bad movie? Is it a pale imitation of the original film? Or should more people have given it a chance?
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There have been threepreviousadaptations in Disney’s recent streak of live-action adaptations. I’ve previouslyreviewed all of them and only really liked Maleficent. In fact, I like Maleficent more now than I did when it first came out, because it took the characters and made an original story with them, while the other two only had minor changes, but were mostly beat-for-beat remakes. I mention all of this before even mentioning Beauty and the Beast, because this is what I want in these movies. I want a reason to watch this version rather than the original. Does this film give me a reason?
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February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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Several films coming out this week are earning nearly unanimously positive reviews. This includes a few documentaries, but also a couple of narrative films that have a shot at some box office success. Moonlight is clearly aiming to win awards and it might do so. The Handmaiden should help grow Chan-wook Park’s fanbase here.
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It’s a bad week for the home market. There are only two first-run releases and neither of them are worth picking up. There’s not a lot of limited releases, TV on DVD releases, etc. to make up the gap. However, there is one truly great release, Trilogía de Guillermo del Toro from The Criterion Collection. The Blu-ray costs a lot, but it is a must have for fans of Guillermo Del Toro, especially his earlier Spanish-language work: Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and Pan’s Labyrinth.
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It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week.
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It's a relatively good week for limited releases with several that are earning excellent reviews. Of these, The Lobster is the one I think will do the best at the box office. Kill Zone 2, Love & Friendship, and some others are also earning excellent reviews, but are playing in VOD.
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2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
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2014 is over and for the most part, December was a soft ending to a weak year. This is bad news for two reasons. Firstly, it means the overall box office is still soft and it is unlikely that January will start strong. Secondly, last January was a great month, thanks in part to Frozen and other holdovers. The slump can't last forever and Taken 3 should help 2015 get off to a reasonably fast start and it even has a shot at $100 million. American Sniper got off to a really fast start in limited release, so it too could be a hit when it expands wide. By comparison, last January was led by Ride Along, but there were only two other films that didn't completely bomb. I want to say 2015 will start out on a winning note, but given the box office losing streak, it will likely pay to be pessimistic.
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There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list; however, there are three films that have already found some Awards Season success, plus a couple others that are earning great reviews. Of the Awards Season hopefuls, Zero Dark Thirty is poised to earn the best per theater average, but it likely won't be the only success story over the weekend.
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The Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their nominations and the same list of films that have been mentioned since the beginning of Awards Season were rewarded today. Lincoln led the way with seven nods, while Argo and Django Unchained were close behind with five.
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