October 4th, 2016
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The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week.
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September 6th, 2016
It is a big week with a ton of home market releases, including several that were contenders for Pick of the Week. There were two limited releases in that group, Love and Friendship and Tale of Tales. Love and Friendship got better reviews, but Tale of Tales’ Blu-ray is more interesting in my mind. Star Trek 50th Anniversary TV and Movie Collection is a great Blu-ray box set and would make an amazing gift. As for the Pick of the Week, that was an easy choice: The Iron Giant: Signature Edition on Blu-ray. Although if you are a hardcore fan, then the Ultimate Collector’s Edition might be worth the $75.
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August 21st, 2016
Three even-matched debutants proved to be no match for the incumbents at the box office this weekend, with Suicide Squad taking a third straight victory at the box office with $20.71 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning projection. Sausage Party stays in second with $15.3 million, and that leaves the new entrants in 3rd, 4th and 5th. This was a weekend where diversity isn’t the problem, but novelty is.
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July 26th, 2016
As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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July 22nd, 2016
Star Trek Beyond got off to a fast start with $5.5 million during its midnight previews. This is $2 million more than Ghostbusters made last weekend, plus it has better reviews. On the other hand, it is a sequel, so the comparison isn’t perfect. We could compare it to the previous installment in the franchise, but that film opened on a Wednesday. X-Men: Apocalypse earned $8.4 million in its previews, but that film earned weaker reviews and is a comic book movie, which tend to be more front-loaded. I was a little more bullish than most with my prediction, but this result make me feel a lot better.
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July 21st, 2016
Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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July 8th, 2016
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It is an easy week to pick the target film for the Box Office Prediction Contest. I’m not 100% sure The Infiltrator is opening truly wide, plus it is a Wednesday release. On the other hand, if Fandango is correct, Ghostbusters will be the biggest comedy of the summer and if early tracking is correct, it will have the best non-family film opening since X-Men: Apocalypse. Regardless if they are correct, Ghostbusters is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghostbusters.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Green Room on Blu-ray, plus an additional previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize, consisting of two previously reviewed DVDs or Blu-rays.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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June 24th, 2016
Independence Day: Resurgence started its box office run with $4 million during Thursday previews. That's not good. That's twice as much as the $2 million Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows earned a few weeks ago, but half as much as the $8.2 million X-Men: Apocalypse earned the week before that. It is identical to Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation, which opened last summer. If you compare its opening to all three films, taking into account Out of the Shadows' younger target audience and Apocalypse's Fanboy nature, then Resurgence will likely opened with between $50 million and $60 million. Hopefully it is performing better internationally.
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June 22nd, 2016
Finding Dory started its international run in first place with $50.0 million in 29 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned second place with 18.15 million over the weekend and $18.18 million including previews. This is not a lot of money compared to last week's winner; however, China is not a market that is kind to animated films. Before this year, no animated movie had earned more than $100 million in China and the current record is held by Zootopia at $235.77 million. Zootopia only made $23.99 million during its opening weekend in China, so this isn't a bad start for Finding Dory. Additionally, Finding Dory doubled Zootopia's opening in Australia with $7.63 million on 524 screens. It also performed very well in Argentina ($3.5 million) and in Russia ($3.25 million on 1,220 screens). It is still too early to tell if Finding Dory will top $1 billion worldwide, but this start gives box office watchers a reason to be optimistic.
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June 16th, 2016
Warcraft roared into first place with $185.8 million in 52 markets for totals of $261.7 million internationally and 285.9 million worldwide. There are some amazing news to report from over the weekend, but also some bad news. First the positive news. The film broke records in China earning $156.17 million during its five-day opening. That topped the previous record held by Furious 7. Unfortunately, outside of China, its box office run was much closer to its North American debut. For example, it earned second place in South Korea with $4.26 million on 736 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $5.09 million. Because of how much money the film is earning in China and how little of that the studio sees, the film could make $600 million internationally and still struggle to break even.
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June 14th, 2016
As anticipated, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the weekend box office with ease pulling in $40.41 million. The second place film, Warcraft, earned 40% less. Now You See Me 2 only managed third place and it will need a lot of help to break even. The overall box office was $152 million, which is 13% more than last weekend. However, it was also more than $100 million less than this weekend last year. Normally a 44% collapse like this only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. In this case, it's because of Jurassic World. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a substantial margin at $4.76 billion to $4.54 billion. 2016's lead is now 4.8%, more than a full percentage point lower than it was this time last week, but hopefully Finding Dory will help prevent a similar descent this week.
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June 9th, 2016
If this weekend is as bad as some fear it will be, it could begin to cause a panic among some studio executives. Two of the three wide releases are sequels and there are some who expect both to fail to match their predecessors by significant margins. If this happens, we will have six sequels failing to match expectations during a four-week stretch. Worse still, there are more than six additional sequels left to open before the end of summer. (Finding Dory seems safe, but the rest could flop as well.) The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist should come out on top at the box office, but with less than the original made. Now You See Me 2 will likely continue Lionsgate's losing streak. Meanwhile, Warcraft could do well enough in China to justify a sequel, which is great news, because it will likely bomb here. This weekend last year, Jurassic World opened with $208 million. There's no way the entire box office will make that much this year. 2016 is going to get pummeled in the year-over-year comparison.
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June 9th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse returned to top spot on the international chart with $84.4 million in 66 markets for totals of $286.0 million internationally and $403.0 million worldwide. Most of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it earned first place with $59.33 million. This is the best opening in the franchise in that market. The film has yet to open in Japan, but will likely fall out of the top ten before it gets there.
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June 7th, 2016
Two of the three new wide releases failed to make much of an impact at the box office over the weekend. This includes the overall number one film, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows. It earned $35.32 million during its opening weekend, which isn't as bad as some feared, but it is also well below its predecessor's opening. Me Before You did very well in a counter-programming role with $18.72 million. Finally, Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping barely topped the Mendoza Line. Overall, the box office earned $133 million, which is 19% lower than last weekend, but that is an acceptable post-holiday decline. Compared to last year, the box office this year was lower, but by less than 0.1%. Year-to-date, 2016's lead has grown to $250 million or 5.9% at $4.56 billion to $4.30 billion.
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June 5th, 2016
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will top the box office chart this weekend with a respectable $35.25 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The weekend as a whole is looking fairly ordinary though, thanks in large part to the muted debuts of X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass last weekend, and their predictably-steep post-Memorial-Day declines. Apocalypse is off 66% this weekend to $22.325 million and $116.5 million in total. Alice will eke out $10.7 million or so for a two-week total of $50.8 million. Overall, the market will be down about 1% from the same weekend last year, and 20% below the comparable weekend from 2014.
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June 2nd, 2016
It's one of those weekends where the bigger the release is, the worse its reviews are. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is the only film expected to top $100 million domestically and its reviews are just 31% positive. Me Before You is expected to be a midlevel hit, but its reviews have slipped to 47% positive. Meanwhile, most analysts think Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping will bomb, but its reviews are by far the best at 81% positive. This weekend last year, Spy opened with just under $30 million. Out of the Shadows should top that, while both years have similar depth. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year comparison.
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June 2nd, 2016
Alice Through the Looking Glass opened in first place on the international chart with $65.0 million in 43 markets for a worldwide opening of $91.9 million, not including holiday Monday. The film's biggest opening was in China, where it made $26.88 million. It also did well in Mexico opening in first place with $4.85 million. On the other hand, it had mediocre openings in Russia (second place with $3.95 million on 1,199 screens), in the U.K. (second place with $3.33 million in 603 theaters) and in Australia (first place with $2.18 million on 503 screens). Those three openings were similar to a $20 million opening here, more or less. If the film can get to $300 million to $350 million worldwide, then it will have a shot at breaking even, eventually. It opens in France this week, Japan next month, and closes its international run in South Korea in September. It will be a while before we will know where it ends.
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June 1st, 2016
The winners of our Apocalypse Wow contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for X-Men: Apocalypse opening weekend were...
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May 31st, 2016
Last Memorial Day was bad with Tomorrowland leading the way with $33.03 million / $42.68 million. This year things were a bit better, with X-Men: Apocalypse earning $65.77 million / $79.81 million. Again, this is okay, but not outstanding. It's record-breaking compared to Alice Through the Looking Glass, which took in $26.86 million / $33.51 million. It's Disney's first bomb of the year. Don't feel bad for them, as they also set the record for fastest to $4 Billion Worldwide over the weekend. Overall, the box office was at $164 million, which was 20% better than last weekend and 18% better than last year. Including Monday, the box office pulled in $205 million, which was 6.3% more than last Memorial day. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $4.39 billion, which is 5.4% or $220 million more than last year's figure of $4.16 billion. (This does include Monday of last year, because of the misalignment of holiday. This is the last misaligned holiday till Labor Day.)
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May 29th, 2016
The X-Men franchise has an impressive track record of Memorial Day openings, starting with X-Men: The Last Stand, which became the first film to gross $100 million over the 3-day part of the long weekend back in 2006. Days of Future Past grossed $90 million this weekend two years ago. In that context, a 3-day opening of $65 million for X-Men: Apocalypse is very much on the low end of expectations, although not too far behind the $72 million we were expecting earlier in the week. It’s a start that points towards a total domestic box office between $130 million and $150 million, even with the extra boost of another $15 million or so expected on Monday. That leaves the international markets with a lot to do, and the news overseas hasn’t been that great, with about $115 million in the bank after most markets opened last weekend.
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May 27th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse started off the Memorial Day long weekend with $8.2 million in 3,565 theaters during its Thursday previews. This is well back from Captain America: Civil War or Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice, both of which earned more than $25 million. However, it is better than Days of Future Past, which earned $8.1 million, so there's a chance it will cracked $100 million over the four-day weekend. I think the reviews will be a major hindrance in that goal, unless fans like it a whole lot more than critics did. This time tomorrow, we will have the opening day numbers, as well as its CinemaScore, so we will have a better grasp on its opening weekend run.
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May 26th, 2016
It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
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May 25th, 2016
X-Men: Apocalypse started its international run in first place with $103.2 million. At first glance, that's a good start. On the other hand, the film is playing in 75 markets, so it doesn't have a lot of markets left to open in. Back to the original hand, one of the markets it has yet to open in is China. The film's biggest single market was the U.K., where it opened in first place with $10.99 million in 598 theaters. This is nearly 30% less than Days of Future Past earned and with weaker reviews, it will likely have weaker legs. The movie-to-movie decline was even steeper in Russia, where it was down 38% to $6.41 million on 1,208 screens, and in Australia, where it was down 39% with $4.68 million on 574. On the other hand, it was down a mere 6.4% in Mexico to $8.8 million and actually rose 22% in the Philippines to $4.9 million. If it can get to $600 million worldwide, then the film will break even some time during its home market run.
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May 25th, 2016
The winners of our Anger Management contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Angry Birds Movie opening weekend were...
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May 19th, 2016
There are two films opening wide next week: X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass. Neither is earning good reviews, but one of them has to be the number one film of the weekend. I think Apocalypse is the clear favorite here and it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for X-Men: Apocalypse.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize of previously reviews DVD and / or Blu-rays. I grabbed a few more boxes from storage, so we can do winner's choice again. The choices are, two movies, one TV on DVD release, three single-disc kids DVDs, or two items from the mystery box.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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May 1st, 2016
April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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