Mean Girls looks set to post a peppy opening weekend somewhere in the high $20-millions, based on our model’s assessment of its $3.25 million in previews on Thursday. That will give it an easy weekend win, although The Beekeeper also looks as though it’ll post good numbers this weekend, and several Holiday holdovers are still bringing in respectable business.
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Wonka looks likely to top the box office chart for the third time this weekend, thanks to another strong hold and a mediocre opening for Blumhouse’s Night Swim. The legacy of the New Year still hangs over predictions this weekend, making it hard to be sure where everything will land, and Night Swim still has a shot at making it to the top, as well as no less than four returning films that have some theoretical chance of topping the chart. What we can say for sure is that we’re heading into a slow period at the box office.
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Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom topped the chart last weekend, and The Color Purple had the second-best opening Christmas Day ever, but our model thinks Wonka will enter the New Year as champion at the box office, based on the performance of all films since Christmas Day.
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Wonka will land with a solid opening, likely somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, this weekend, based on our model’s forecast and a decent $3.5 million in preview earnings on Thursday. That will be easily the best weekend ever for a live action musical not based on an existing show, beating the $15.5 million earned by The Greatest Showman over its second weekend back in December, 2017. The best weekend for any live-action musical is $42.0 million, earned by High School Musical 3: Senior Year back in 2008. We don’t have enough data yet to be sure that record won’t be broken, but it would require very good legs through the weekend.
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A young Willy Wonka’s adventures, as he dreams of creating the world’s greatest chocolate factory.
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Because some of our sources provide box office data in their local currency, while we use USD in the graph above and table below, exchange rate fluctuations can have effect on the data causing stronger increases or even decreases of the cumulative box office.
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